SBS Transit

SBS Transit

2006 Nov/Dec:

2006 profit Forcast:

Based on 3 quanters's results,

2006 Profit forcast = 4/3 * 40.6M =54M

From 2006 Oct, bus and MRT fare hike, the contribution from this factor is estimated:

Revenue will go up 2% = +12M, which can be regarded fully addition to profit.

Fuel Cost: 2004 ~71.7M; 2005~101M; 2006F~4/3*93=31*4=124M; 2007F ~ 100M (assuming the price of crude oil goes back to 2005 level.

2007 Profit forcast:

= 54M (2006 Profit) + 12M (fare-hike) + 20M (Fuel low) + 10M (MRT contribution due to Vivo, NE area) = 90M

2007 Apr 22:

SBS Transit

This is a one of two Singapore transport companies.
The company own North-East MRT

Key Fact to Monitoring:

Crude Oil price is a key factor to determine the cost, as long as it is lower than US$70, then the company profit will not be degraded by this factor.

Advertisement Income is an important part of earning, so if Singapore economy slow down, this part income should be influened.

低风险, 高回报,

不过, 要依赖

0. Bus & MRT fare hike!

1. 油价!

Crude Oil Price from NYMEX

Dramatic Increases in Diesel Fuel Costs Over the Past Five Years

2. Population especailly the North-East Corridor.

3. 新加坡经济 (广告收入,客流量)


2007 Apr 23:

SBS 继续升高

Today, SBS' price continues goes up to S$2.52. Ha

Another company SMRT, recently, in the same period, goes up from 1.4x ~1.8x, also up 30+%. However, this stock I didn't buy.

Does it have more long-term growth potential due to Loop MRT??? Due to space rental? Due to SMRT bus service?

It is not easy to learn about a business, not easy to compare, not easy to make good decision. But, it is really something your effort will pay out.


2007 Jul 11 :

SBS transit is facing price down.

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=S61.SI&t=3m&q=c&l=on&z=m&a=v&p=s

In 07 May, it reach a peak $3.78.
After a dividend ~$0.25, it comes to $3.40+ and swing there for 1 month until June 18 2007,

Today 11 July
The price goes down to 3.08, -10% compared with the price in last month.

My friend has decided to take profit. He told me the increasing diesel price may reversely affect the price in coming months.

What should I do? ?

Ok ... ...

After some up-downs in my mind:

(1) Profit taking can keep me happy. haha, not rational reason. If I lose the profit or lose the capital, I will have a very bad memory about it.

At all, it is my first own pick. (after buying, my friend gave me much more important insight about the counter, I am lucky I am not so wrong).

What if the price went up in coming days? I believe that Earning less is much less painful than lossing. Keep the capital, keep the good mood, good chances are always in stock market, don't worry missing some of them. The important thing is to avoid lose, avoid bad, questionable chances.

(2) current EPS 18.5cts price 3.08, PE=16.6,

If energy cost for 2007 were same as that for 2006, the forecasted EPS for 2007 may go to ~22cts, if the enery cost were 20% higher/lower than 2006, the forecasted EPS may swing in range of ~15cts ~28cts.

If the company were not so sensitive to energy cost, the price is quite fair because it is a cash cow, strong divedend payout (dividend>EPS), one of two monopoly local tranport providers.

Its growth is quite expectable, due to its price-hike ability (~2%), population increase (~2.8%), good economic shape in Singapore (for advertisement revenue).

So, is it a good cyclical company with (growth, cash)? (concept from Peter lychn's book)

is it worth buying back if the price go down further?

(3) I has just sold half of my stocks,

Why half? it is due to some technical issue...............

2007 Jul 12 :

Today, the price rebound to $3.16. Mr. Market changes his attitude. :) :(

Q:

Shall I regret selling half of my stocks?

A:

(1) no feeling, maybe due to only selling half.

(2) Fundamental changes, it is reasonable to sell.

(3) Technically, this time the trailing cut-loss does not work well.

Q:

How to arrange another half stocks?

A:

(1) First, I want to finish cash backing of first half. And check movable ability of second half.

(2) After that, maybe I will still follow trailing cut-loss method?

2007 Jul 17 :

---2007 1st Quarter EPS = 5.58cts

---2007 2nd Quarter:

Assuming the revenue and other expense are the same as 1st Quarter, the EPS will mainly depends on the energy cost.

If the diesel cost of 2nd Quarter increases +10% compared to 1st Quarter, the the EPS is forecasted ~4.8cts. PE~16

If the diesel cost of 2nd Quarter increases +20% compared to 1st Quarter, the the EPS is forecasted ~4.0cts. PE~20

2007 Aug 13 :

---2007 2nd Quarter result announced:

Energy and Fuel cost increase from 26,275K (Q1) to 30,179K (Q2), +15%

EPS~ 4.72cts (1st quarter 5.58cts) 1H~10.3cts

2007 Nov 1 : 2007 Q3 result is on the way (Nov 13),

Singapore diesel/liter, increase from Q2 1.06S$ to 1.15+S$, I estimate the energy and fuel cost will increase from 30,179K (Q2) to 33,000K (Q3), profit will drop to 11700K, EPS ~3.8cts, without considering other changes.

Since the price of crude oil keeps increasing, so the estimated Q4 profit should be lower, So the full year EPS estimation is around 10.3 + 3.8 + 3? =17cts, compare to current price 3.06S$, PE is 18.

Due to volatile world oil price, SBS earning growth becomes uncertain,

Suggestion: SELL

Sold@$3.06

2008 Feb:

Review on 2007 Profit forcast:
"2007 Profit forcast= 54M (2006 Profit) + 12M (fare-hike) + 20M (Fuel low) + 10M (MRT contribution due to Vivo etc.) = 90M"

The actual 2007 profit is 50M:

MRT increase is correctly forcasted. (actual +8.4M)

Fare-hike is correctly forcasted. (roughly 2.+% increase for turnover)

Fuel cost is ~130M, not forcasted 100M,

Revenue increase is 6.5% higher than expected, (ridership up 4.4% for bus, 18% for MRT, important change!) . But it is offset by higher Depreciation, and high repair and maintenance cost. (overlooked..................)

2008 March:

Due to market collpsing atomosphere, and the coming policy transform for public transport system announced by Singapore Gov, SBS price drop and stable at ~$2.5.

前景不明, 观望..