26 Dec 2009

人只不过是人-------本女所交往的亿万富豪们!

作者:喜欢数学的女孩1 回复日期:2005-9-11 22:21:59 
  把以前写的打个包,再见,过段时间继续:
  
  人只不过是人-------本女所交往的亿万富豪们!
  
   (一)
  
   今晚没事,想写点东西,但最近帖子不是被删就被封,大概是不够风花雪月就都敏感了,因此就来一个风花雪月一点的,说说本女所交往的亿万富豪们!
  
   由于业务的关系,本女接触过太多的亿万富豪们。其实如果就1、2亿的身家,一般是没资格和本女有业务的。通常能和本女有业务的,身家都至少是十亿以上的。
  
   一般人通常认为,富豪都是飞扬跋扈、不可一世的。其实,大概也只有那些一亿几千万的爆发户是这样,真的大富豪,都是低调、有修养的。
  
   和本女交往的人中,大致分为两类:一类是出国回来、学历很高,例如有一个从英国最出名学校拿博士回来的,就是他那领域最出名的专家之一。他整天在媒体上出现,唯一谈的都是他的专业,从来不涉及其生意。另一类是国内经过长期奋斗的,这类人来源就很多了,每个人后面都有一个传奇的故事。
  
   不管是学问大小,海龟还是土鳖,至少在本女面前都很有礼貌。这些人很多都是本女父辈的年龄,即使通电话也都显得特别有礼貌,本女从来没见过或听过一般人印象中的趾高气扬。
  
   一般人大概都认为富豪们整天花天酒地的,其实除了有点小钱的爆发户,本女还真没见到他们如何整天乱搞。例如有一位特出名的,名下包括海外有7、8家上市公司,数以百亿的资产,来北京也就开一部普通的A6。还有一位前段时间连篇累牍地提到的,有时候还打的,穿得和一般人也没什么区别。
  
   当然,有些人也是有怪癖的,例如有两兄弟,都是出名的富豪,本女先去弟弟那里,一看,满墙的照片;后来去到哥哥那里,一样,从联合国到美国一直来到中国,基本里面的头的合影都有了,还以为找到元首照片陈列馆了,也怪可笑的。
  
  所谓英雄到老皆归佛,富豪中信佛的可是占了绝大多数。当然,里面有半路出家的,但也有信了几十年的。一般都很虔诚,有些人专门有一种护法的责任感,专门收集保护有关的文物等,有些办公室就是一个佛堂,每天自己都念经,十分令人感动。
  
  别以为富豪们就是大腹便便、全身流油的。本女见过的人里,身材还真没特别臃肿的,有些人的身材还特别的标准。而且有些人还特别的瘦,例如刚才上面提到的一位,经常上电视,真人比电视里瘦多了,简直就是皮包骨(绝对没有吸毒,此人烟都不抽的),每次见他,本女都有种可怜他的感觉。
  
  至于所谓的官商勾结的问题,其实也不一定。并不是每一个大富豪后面都站着一个大官的。官场是有线的,不搭上线,什么富豪也没用。一般人觉得官和商在一起就象去鸭店叫鸭一样成行成市的,其实都是绝对的误解。
  
  当然,财富积累的过程中,这种官商勾当是不可避免的,但也不一定就是一手交钱一手交货的关系。而且很多人生意弄得很大,在当地可能也能牛一下,一来到北京就蔫了。有一个每年销售上百亿、全国排第二的就说过,我们去别的地方,市长什么的都接见。来到北京,连处长都见不到。其实也不是北京的处长就这么牛,只是线路不对,没有人一天举着牌子在长安街上找人的。
  
   (二)
  
  今天流行看超女,本女就不流行了,继续富豪们。
  
  昨天第一篇出来后,很多人不舒服、不理解也不奇怪。本女只是写自己亲历的事情,在本女眼里,众生平等。我者,非我非非我也。我者,以天地为席,一阴阳而抖擞、包天阔地、握着蛇向上帝宣战,搅大地为黄金,化毒药为醍醐,所谓天上地下,惟我独尊。这里连上帝都没有,还有什么富豪?
  
  之所以写这个东西,当然不仅仅为了风花雪月。人只不过是人,人,戏者又是被戏者,连一个最简单的电子也有着不同的能量态,但最复杂的世界也就是一个生灭。生灭之中,简单和复杂,一切的现象都只不过是现象,平常待之,又有什么可分别的?
  
  生命的形态、生命的过程都如空中幻影,但正是这幻中之幻就幻出生命的精彩。生、住、坏、灭,日日好日,无不精彩,人如此,人生如此,如此不如此,也只如此。如此,也就继续如此了。
  
  所谓江山易改,秉性难移,这大概和所谓的财富是无关的。就譬如说吝啬,也和所谓的财富无关,在本女认识的人里,毁在这上的还真不少。
  
  由于都是些很出名的人和事例,具体的细节就不说了。例如其中的两个,出事时间相差四年,但最后的毁灭模式都是一样的。开始的疯狂,到关键的时候,本来都是3、5千万就可以摆平,就是根子里的吝啬使怪,以为能省就省,结果上百亿的企业一夜之间土崩瓦解,逃的逃,进去的进去,成了大笑话。本女的行业里,见这些沉浮都见到麻木了。
  
  当然,也有背水一战,逃出死地的。总之,都是性格决定命运,气质决定成败。
  
   (三)
  
  吃饱喝足,即使是周末,也不一定要饱暖思淫欲的。例如,本女现在就可以继续写富翁们!
  本女写这个帖子,当然不是要去调和什么阶级矛盾,说说富翁的好话。只是一般人对实际情况了解太少,免不了道听途说,偏见往往是眼界狭小、智力低下的产物。人只不过是人,即使希特勒,临自杀前能为了爱娃的名分而镇定自若地举行婚礼,如果这种行为也归到他的恶行里,那世界上的男猿人就真的没什么可题目的。
  
  本女随手起的题目却恰好是一般人不大了解的阿兰·罗伯一格里耶一句名言的一部分:“事物就是事物,人只不过是人”。新诗里80年代火了一把的”“非非主义”就是以这句话为基础的。这里没有所谓传统人道主义的矫情,也没有纯粹科学主义、阶级斗争的狂燥。世界没有什么中心,没有上帝,包括人,人也不是什么中心、上帝!
  
  而所谓的富豪也只不过是一种现象,关键不是现象本身是什么,相由心生,你看到的只不过是你的心而已。对于本女来说,一切只如空谷回音,乱云过影。世界不是一个规律或本质的复制,世界不是一个工业化的垃圾厂。世界无所谓中心,每一个人都是一个世界,都是独一无二的。人,非人,所以人。
  
  英雄莫问出处,例如有战争就有了所谓的战争英雄,其实也不过是成王败寇;在经济社会,一切经济活动其实都是战争,当然也有了成王败寇。但成也非成,败也非败,只如云影谷响,非有非无,最终都付笑谈而已。本女在这个圈子里,耳濡目染,也就有了故事,也就有可能写这个帖子了。最终也是得者得之,失者失之,而得失又何曾得失,随意写来,各位也就姑且看之了。
  
   (四)
  刚看完一个很好的歌剧,心情正好,就继续写富豪们!由于本女对这个群体的接触面很广,材料很多,这个帖子注定要写很长,大概也可以当成本女对所谓富翁这个群体的一个相当深入的反思。但本女不准备写成一个秘闻或诽闻的八卦文章,因此具体的人以及一些公众知道的细节都不会明确提及,大概也只能采取一种印象派绘画的手法,只涉及印象,这样会避免很多不必要的麻烦。
  
  任何东西,说白了就是一个生、住、坏、灭的游戏,富豪,无论群体还是个体都也不过如此。这里,当然先从其生开始说。所谓的生,也不过就是这个群体以相应个体的出现、形成,换句时髦的话,就是富翁是如何炼成的。由于不是那些书斋里文字游戏般的理论文章,说的当然只是亲身的印象而不是理论的臆测。
  
  连火星人都知道,任何中国人往上三代,全都和农民搭上界,谁都不用往自己脸上贴金。北京胡同里还整天说着此旗彼旗的那一群,也就是个笑话了。连蒋委员长也就是“十里洋场一瘪三”,上海滩无论70年前还是现在,也没有什么王谢燕子。即使有个把漏网之鱼,在毛大爷的时代,也全冒白泡了。
  
  79年后,有了所谓的万元户,但这只不过是中国特色的、特定语境下一种过度性质的东西,真正意义上的富豪以及最终群体的出现,当然就是89年以后、特别是苏联解体以后的事情了。之所以有这种时间和空间的有趣配合,确实有点情场失意、赌场得意的感觉,其中的奥妙足够写一本书了,有兴趣者可以慢慢参详。
  
  从此,有了所谓的“太子党”、海龟派,土鳖派,富豪们也雨后春笋般地冒出来,有了所谓的权钱交易、也有所谓的白手起家了。一轮轮的经济热潮对应了一群群人的沉沉浮浮、悲欢离合,这大概都是一切世间游戏所共有的。
  
   (五)
  人只不过是人-------本女所交往的亿万富豪们!(五)
  
  刚喝了点拉斐,正好继续写富豪们。在国外,红酒、雪茄、美男(或美女)总是和财富联系在一起。也只有暴发户才喜欢汽车之类的工业品,一点品位都没有。即使从消费价格说,一瓶远不是最贵的好的拉斐可以拍到16万美元,玩得起汽车的也不一定能喝得起好的红酒。
  
  本女在酒界有太多熟人,行内流传着这样真实的笑话:一位大半生都奉献给红酒的法国老头来到一个整天吹嘘自己如何与国际接轨的城市,为了介绍红酒文化把他珍藏的红酒打开,当地的头马上唤人兑上雪碧,把老头惊得目瞪口呆。就像幼儿园的小孩是不可能明白巴赫的,笑话也是成长所必须的,包括富豪的成长。
  
  本女曾有一个曾引起争论的帖子“"用股票技术分析的方法对“毛泽东现象”进行的一个简单分析”,把毛泽东的人生历程用5浪形式进行了分析。其实,本女一直有这样的观点,一个最终生长、形成的现象必然包含一个5浪的形式。也就是说,这种分析不仅仅可以用在毛泽东的现象上,同样可以用在富豪的现象上。
  
  所谓暴发户,就是有一个爆发性的1浪(也就是所谓的第一桶金),其后的2浪调整没完没了,最终打回原形。而有些2浪调整后也有一个重新发展的过程,但总是反反复复,最终也没走出象样的3浪,这种人就是所谓的小老板们了。大概,最终有极少数人经过2浪调整,找到自己的所谓赢利模式,走出3浪,这种人可以视为准富翁,在一般人看来,也就是所谓的大老板了。其实,能否成为真正的富翁,还是就是昙花一现,关键是看这4浪的调整能否站稳形成稳定的企业结构和持续发展模式并最终走出第5浪。否则企业多大也白搭,4浪调整完成不了反而走出崩盘走势的人,本女见过太多了。不经过这5浪的磨练,一个富翁是炼不成的。
  
  虽然这5浪的结构异常简单,但能够明白其中的道理,也就知道富翁生长的基本模式以及关键时空位置和对应策略了。其实这5浪的结构可以说是我们可见宇宙中事物生长的基本模式之一,参透其中,也就不仅仅是对应一两个富豪那么简单了。
  
   (六)
  
  今天晚上还有应酬,就提早点写富豪们。昨天说到所谓暴发户,就是有一个爆发性的1浪(类似于所谓的第一桶金,当然在目前的情况下,一般意义上的第一桶金只不过是1浪的1子浪了),今天就说说富豪炼成史的1浪。这里必须说一句题外话,五浪结构和逻辑曲线之间并没有什么特别的关系,期货市场上一个超级延伸5子浪就足以让逻辑曲线的废话全面废话,反斯大林主义的现代西方经济学和斯大林主义在逻辑上可笑又可悲地同构着,由于与本文无关,这一点就不展开了。
  
  爆发性1浪对应了所谓的暴发户,但富豪炼成史的1浪并不都是爆发性的。而且,随着社会的发展,以前意义上的暴发户到现在可能就只构成1浪的第1子浪了。按照目前的经济发展水平,完成1浪的资产水平怎么都应该达到几亿人民币的水平。以前这个数字可能是几千万,以后可能是更高的数量级,这都和社会的经济发展水平有关。但即使在目前的水平看,通常意义的暴发户和以前相比还是要少多了,毕竟天上突然掉几亿的机会怎么都比掉几千万的要少。
  
  显然,最终能走完5浪的人也是很少的,真正的富豪也不可能由暴发户直接炼成。大多数人一生都在第1浪的第1子浪上打转,即使能完成第1浪的,又绝大部分在其后的2浪调整中被洗回原形,其中的道理是不难理解的。而一般人对所谓富豪们荒淫无度、花天酒地的印象,一般都是由于这群完成或即将完成1浪的假富豪们给闹的。但正像5浪之前必有1浪,这个乱七八糟的过程都是必须经历的,对此,本女是深有体会的。
  
  一般来说,胡闹的程度大致和完成1浪的年龄有很高的相关度。有些人用了大半生的精力才走完第1浪,又拖家带口的,当然就比较收敛一点。而如果很年轻、单身,这第1浪又走得特别轻松(虚拟经济等的发展,使得这已经成为经济发展的一般现象了),各项激素又是分泌正常的人,出现一些胡闹不也是很正常吗?关键是这种闹只是阶段性的,有些人走不出来就毁了,被直接洗回去了,有些人走出来了,阅历也多,人也更厉害了,才有走出第3浪的可能性。这个阶段的长短、激烈程度因人而异,但都是有的,至少本女所见,没有任何例外的。
  
  当然,这种胡闹也是有很多后遗症的,例如其中一个就是,很多人好象从此就完全失去婚姻的能力(当然不是指生理能力,主要是心理上的),本女的朋友中,无论男女,这种人可真不少。也奇怪,本女认识的人中,在这个1浪水平上的时候,或者就不结婚,或者就干脆离了,真的去包什么二爷、二奶的还真不多,这大概也是和一般人的想象不同的。真去包什么的那种猥琐人,可能连1浪的3子浪都没看到呢。
  
  (七)
  
  忙了一个白天,终于有时间继续写富豪们了。今天还是继续说说这丰富多彩的1浪。用车来比喻,3浪是阿斯顿-马丁,5浪是迈巴赫,而1浪就是阿尔法-罗密欧了。罗密欧的诱惑是致命的,而1浪也有着这种致命的诱惑。当然,如果没有亲身驾着阿尔法-罗密欧迎着地中海的风飞驰的经历,是不可能真的明白这种致命的自由与放纵的。当然,也有人因为祖荫的关系一开始就法拉利了,虽然5部阿尔法-罗密欧都比不上一部法拉利,但放纵的自由的初次释放还是罗密欧的。
  
  比喻终归是比喻,其实也完全可以十分理性地去分析这1浪。一个1浪完成的人,至少在经济上是完全自由了,不仅不用朝九晚五或晚九朝五,而且也不用白领金领地看别人脸色了。所谓的经济社会,说白了就是一个金钱垒起来的大监狱,所有的人只不过是其中被奴役的可怜虫(请注意,当你在看这段文字的时候,其实已经是一个金钱游戏的结果,没有这游戏,哪有什么互联网?)。而走完这1浪,终于可以有了一个放风的机会,这种自由与放纵当然是别有不同的。
  
  物质决定意识,当一个人被物质、特别是最低劣的物质——金钱所困扰时,其意识是很难摆脱这种干扰的。意识对物质的摆脱永远是有限度的,所谓意识的奇迹还不如说是意识自渎的奇迹。无论是中国还是西方,如果没有对艺术、宗教提供专门支持的人和机构,没有这些人和机构的支持,就不可能有达芬奇、巴赫、莎士比亚、贝多芬、歌德等人,当然也不会有唐诗宋词的辉煌。有些人可能要用屈原怎么惨、杜甫怎么穷之类的故事来反驳,其实,这都是被编的故事骗了。文人总是有一种自我摧残的倾向来赢得快感,他们那算什么呀,例如杜甫,大军阀严武等都是他的后台,你说他能穷到哪里?至于什么郊寒岛瘦之类的废话,纯粹是文人的无病呻吟了。
  
  对金钱以及一切与金钱相关的束缚的极大解脱,当然是人生一大乐事,这点又何须讳言?当然,这还不是真正的解脱,但这种物质层面的解脱如果出现了,为什么就不能“春风得意马蹄疾,一日看尽长安花”?不过,一日是可以的,一生就不一定了,因为1浪以后还有2浪的大调整在等着呢,而本女所见,很多人还没看完这长安花,早就“秋风吹渭水,落叶满长安”了。
  
  (八)
  最近真有点忙,晚上还有一个重要的谈判,有点后悔开了这个帖子,但事情总要有始有终,还是抓紧临出去前的时间继续写富豪们。今天说的问题可能比较敏感,也就是争论特别多,但这是无法回避的,而且必须深入谈论。
  
  老马说,资本生下来每个毛孔都带着血,这简直是老马说过的最无聊的话。任何人,都是每个毛孔带着血生下来的,难道有谁刚生下来的时候竟然可以不是这样?资本,既然是人类活动的一种产物,有着与人生理过程相类似的结构、过程又有什么可奇怪的?
  
  当然,本女不准备为资本积累的血腥辩护,就像本女不准备为孩子出生的血腥辩护一样。所谓的血腥只是一个与历史相关的概念,对于原始人来说,血腥是唯一生存的前提,而对于现代人来说,至少原始人的那种血腥是不合时宜了,但这只不过是指常态,在一些非常态下,现代人可能比原始人还血腥。关键的问题不是血腥是否合理,就像生孩子母亲要流血,但医学发展了,这种情况如果能控制得温和一点,这就是医学的进步。同样的道理,讨论资本积累是否血腥是没意义的,关键是一切要被控制,这才是社会可能出现的现实进步。
  
  现实中,如果无限度地通过压榨工人的血汗来达到所谓的致富,例如除了制造最廉价商品还制造现代包身工的工厂、各地用人骨头堆起的煤矿等等,这种脱离时代最基本规范的资本积累当然要必须严厉打击。但如果是通过基本合理合法的手段走完第1浪,完成资本积累,这又有什么不可以?而且这种东西是必须而且应该鼓励的,否则大家都在1浪的1子浪下面打转,这种所谓的公平合理又有什么意义?
  
  现代社会的本质是一个资本同一化的过程,资本同一化必然将一切人自身以及人与人之间的相互关系同一化、资本化,这是一个必然的现实着的历史过程。没有任何人可以脱离历史的发展阶段,任何的脱离只能是童话,童话总是要破灭的,而所有童话的后面都只不过是一个个的异化过程。这一切,放眼历史就很清楚了。
  
  现实中的所谓1浪或资本积累过程的完成,无非就是通过这三种途径:权力资本化、智力资本化、体力资本化。这三种过程对应着任何现实人的三种存在关系。所谓体力来自肉体,智力来精神,而权力来自人与人的关系也就是社会结构本身。任何的资本化形式和过程都可以归结到这三种的形式以及它们之间的互相组合,民族与国家的特殊性只能构成其形式与组合方式的某种特殊性,而根本上是一样的。
  
  现实中国的富豪们的1浪或资本积累过程的完成,同样是这三种基本形式以及其组合的结果。就本女所见,这里当然有着许多中国特色的东西,里面也有着很多值得故事的故事,但基本结构的把握才是最重要的。没有这些,一切也就迷失在这纷繁之中而自迷迷人了。当然,这三种基本形式也有着很多的变形,这种变形有时候比基本形式本身还更有意义,今天时间太紧,明天说。
  
  (九)
  
  又周末了,上周的超女没有了,但本女的富豪们还要继续。昨天说了现实中1浪或资本积累过程的三种完成途径:权力资本化、智力资本化、体力资本化。有人可能要诘问这里为什么不考虑人与自然关系的资本化可能。其实这个问题老马已经解决,在人化自然的过程中,一切人与自然的关系最终都将归结到人与人的关系中,不明白这一点,就根本不可能建立任何与社会结构相关的有意义分析。这一点,对于1浪或资本积累的过程同样适用。
  
  这里必须说明的是,所谓的权力资本化可不单单是中国、亚洲国家或原东方阵营所特有的现象,这三种资本化的途径是全球性的,包括权力资本化,美国等所谓西方民主国家也不例外。所谓制度,无论所谓文官制度、民主制度、选举制度、市场经济制度等等五花八门的这制度那制度,都不过是权力资本化的具体表现,任何社会结构都必然权力化、资本化,这是同一东西的两面。
  
  可能,这个帖子已经越来越理论化,但本女早就事先声明,本帖子不准备“写成一个秘闻或诽闻的八卦文章”,反思当然包括理论的反思,不过理论和现实的经历会有一个平衡的。在本女的经历中,相对来说,由于年纪与周围环境的关系,对体力资本化过程的真人秀,本女见的相对少一点,另两种就见得太多了。然而并不是任何一个具体个体的资本积累活动都可以泾渭分明地归结到其中一种形式,这里往往有一个互相渗透的过程,但在本女所见中,最终无一例外地归到权力资本化的大网里,只是迟早、级别的问题。
  
  在本女的经验里,一般来说,通过体力资本化向权力资本化渗透的过程往往都是低级别的,很少能最终突破的。相反,权力资本化与智力资本化之间天生就有血缘关系,天生就有勾搭在一起的基因。其实,这在理论上也很好解释,权力游戏本来就是一个最高深的游戏类型,这当然地天生是“吃脑”的人所玩的游戏。但这里必须说明的是,权力不仅仅只是狭义的政治权力,一切社会结构都必然被权力化,例如当我们说话语权的时候,无论是政府还是民间,独裁还是民主,其实都一回事,只是一个权力的游戏。
  
  1浪的完成,无论是直接从权力资本化开始,还是从智力资本化、体力资本化开始,最终都必然指向权力的资本化或资本的权力化。这一点,无论从经验和理论上,都是本女所深切体验到的。具体的事例就不用说也没必要说了,用老马的术语,经济基础最终必然归结到上层建筑,这是十分显然的事情,从而也无须解释了。
  
  (十)
  周六了,地球那边出产新奥尔良烤翅的地方大概还在玩着烧杀的游戏,而本女除了观火外,其实还可以继续写这富豪们的。前几天都太理论化了一点,周末了,本女也就轻松一点,改成故事会,分几天说说几个行业中一些与1浪相关的故事。当然,名字是不会说的,行内的人一看就明白,行外的就权当看天方夜谭吧。先说说这资本市场中各色1浪资本积累游戏。
  
  这个行业内本女所见可说的故事太多了,一一说来真就没完没了了,只能挑些来说。先说两个失败的大散户例子。92、93年的时候有几千万真金白银,即使不算走完1浪,也是快有机会走完了,这个例子中的故事十分简单,就是因为透资(而且这位是把盘子交给一个所谓的好朋友,这所谓的好朋友透的资),一下爆仓,一个子都没落下。后来这个所谓的好朋友还在这市场中出名地混了很久,天天报纸杂志的,从中也就知道这报纸杂志上出头的人究竟都能是些什么人。
  
  第二个例子也是和所谓的透资有关系,那已经是96、97年的事情。如果说92、93年的时候透资都是没谱的,1比10、20都敢来,96、97年至少在很多地方都有些收敛,1比3都不多了。这位主人公也就是1比1。当然他的本金也就几千万,在96、97年就不算太多了。本来也没到爆仓点的,证券部的人那天(公布某伟人去世那天)不知道为什么突然这么有责任感,当他还没去证券部交涉前就开始平仓,那时候还没有什么涨跌停板,平完以后就剩下几十万元了,不过至少比上面那位好,至少还能留点。几个月后,从他的平仓价,那股票翻了7倍,是那轮行情中最牛的几个股票之一。这还用说,那股票的庄家当然要用这种热烈的方式感谢这证券部有意无意的所谓失误。
  
  以上两个例子都是些大散户的例子,这种例子太多,例如以前的国债期货以及各类商品期货中,这种暴起暴落的事情就见得更多了。下面说说所谓庄家的例子。对一般人来说,庄家好象很神秘,其实庄家里面大部分都是傻瓜,至少本女见过这么多庄家里,没一个本女看得上眼的。
  
  庄家也没有什么可神秘的,一般庄家就这么几种:一种是国家机构的钱,以前最牛的就是所谓的333主力,这钱的来源本女就不说了,但像他们这种背景、政策、资金全面超前的东西,弄几个行情又有什么牛的;次一等的像什么君安、中经开之类的,纯粹就是当时市场太小,猴子也能称大王;另一类就是港台一带的游资,后来还有些国外的资金,这些人也能搞些东西出来,但毕竟不是地头蛇,也没什么厉害的;还有一类就是所谓的私募基金,后来连什么涨停板敢死队都被吹了一轮,这类的资金又能牛去什么地方;至于那些所谓正式的基金,开始是为相应的证券公司或机构接货,后来又鼓吹这种理念那种理念去蒙散户,一点技术含量都没有,就更没什么好说的了。
  
  当然,有些人还是有点想法的,本女有点奇怪的经历,对那几只轰动全国的股票后面的庄家都曾一度很熟悉,对他们的手法、理念、过程都很熟悉,明天就挑一个或两个出来说说。这些陈年老帐其实也没什么可说的,就当故事来听听,明天再说了。
  
  !(十一)
  
  昨天说了要开几天故事会,今天就继续。当然不仅仅是股票市场有庄家,任何大众参与的活动最终都会有庄家出现,形式可能各异,其实是同构的,一回事情。政治、经济、文化等等,最终都是一个庄家和散户玩的游戏,看透了就明白了。
  
  所谓庄家,层次上有几种,一种是最傻的,道听途说,以为庄家很好玩,蒙着头就跑进来或被人忽悠进来了。一般人认为,庄家喜欢吃散户,其实庄家经常吃庄家,吃庄家比吃散户爽多了,而这第一种,就是最大的猎物。这种人,本女从来不会同情他们的,一般这种人都是趾高气扬的主,以为拿着十亿八亿的就很牛,却不知道市场亏起来速度是一样的,来得越多经常死得越快。这类资金一般都是每轮行情中的新资金,而且国企特别多。市场中有一批人就经常去忽悠这些人,例如几年前,有人打着一个旗号,把一个中国最出名的企业之一忽悠了10亿去弄一个股票,当时的市值也就16、17亿左右,10亿打光了,最终股票还掉了80%。当然,10亿对那个企业来说只是小钱,挂在那里也不影响什么。
  
  还有一种是自己也有一点想法,但对这个市场完全不明白,想当然地弄,结果运气好了火暴一两年就歇了,有些连火都没见到就歇了。例如10年前曾有人在一个沿海发达地区弄了个很大的贵族学校,他的想法很简单,就是先把几年的学费一次性收了,然后承诺N年以后大部分退回,这样一下就筹集了几亿的资金。 96年的行情中,深圳的成分股基本都长疯了,翻10倍20倍的很多,他合庄弄了其中一个,也是其中的明星股。后来出来以后,大概觉得自己很厉害了,刚好开始玩重组,他就弄了一个内地的上市公司也玩起来,但星星已经不是那星星,月亮也不是那个月亮,后来很快就歇了菜,当然还包括那学校。
  
  还有一种就是知道所谓庄家也就是一个游戏,准确点就是利用人类贪婪与恐惧的游戏,然后就利用这来设局,想法是不错,但却不知道“只缘身在此山中”,不知道游戏过了一关还有一关,用这关的方法过那关,可能会死得很惨,虽然名动一时,最终玩出一个大炸弹出来。运气好一点的就苦苦支撑,不好的逃的逃,进去的进去。这方面的例子一般都很出名,故事明天专门讲。
  
  当然,还有一种弄完后就离开了,金盘洗手,或者干实业去了,或者干脆归隐起来,靠些回忆过日子。这种人却不知道,游戏永远游戏着,归隐也不过是游戏,干实业也是游戏,最终都有被转进去的一天,特别干实业的,死起来一点都不比资本市场慢,这些故事以后再说。
  
  最后还有一种,就是庄家的庄家,高手中的高手,一直引领着行业的潮流,对这个行业完全洞悉,知道这只不过是一个帝网中的以幻戏幻的游戏,无进退而潇洒进退,而且知道市场非市场所以为市场,在时空的变幻中不生生而生,不死死而死,从容于市场的生死。这种人当然十分稀少,但还是有的。
  
  (十二)
  
  今天没事,虽然本女“男人,思想和生殖器是不可共存的,有思想的男人只能是太监!”这么逻辑正确的文章被封,但本女还是很有心情继续写富豪们的。上面这个文章最后的结论“男人,不管有玩意没玩意都不是玩意”,大概绝大多数男性都不能接受。但如果把男人改成富豪,变成“富豪,不管有玩意没玩意都不是玩意”,相信很多不接受前者的人都能接受后者。为什么两个逻辑结构上完全一样的东西会有这么大的差别,这个问题大概就不是一个完全不值得讨论的问题了。
  
  昨天说到,有一种稍微有点水平的庄家就是利用人类的贪婪与恐惧设局玩游戏,当然,很多人最终也因此被局进去了,游戏者终归又成为被游戏者,这是什么?还是人类的贪婪与恐惧。人,又有谁能离开这贪嗔痴,人只不过是人,人的一切都只不过都是这贪嗔痴。设局者也由于这贪嗔痴而设局,中计者也是由于这贪嗔痴而中计,但游戏者又有何人能明白自己也不过是被游戏者,自以为聪明的最后都是反被聪明误去了。
  
  当然,开头说到的两个逻辑结构一样的命题之所以有不同的反应,说白了,也是贪嗔痴作祟。只不过你有你的贪嗔痴,他有他的贪嗔痴,喜者喜之,恶者恶之,喜之恶之,自茧成缚。本来的游戏失去了游戏的本来,所谓差别都是自生差别而已,翳眼生花,可笑可怜。
  
  有一个很出名的所谓庄家,原来只是一介书生。书生者,就像书里生的虫子,以为书虫就不是虫了,所谓书生意气,都是喜欢以幻想代替实际的。这位,开始时候编出很多故事来设局,大概沾了书生的光,故事编得有模有样的,而当时又是一个喜欢听故事的年代,很多人象幼儿园的小朋友,要听了故事才安心,后来很多传媒也忽悠进去了,市场突然变成了一个童话大世界。这位大概被这个自己描画出来的东西给迷住了,就像一个写小说的开始为小说里的人又哭又笑,真把自己当成一棵葱了。
  
  可是,童话连棵葱都没有,即使把很多大的机构也忽悠进去了,很多大散户小散户忽悠进去了,但最后却不知道其实这个故事只不过是一个更大故事里面的小插曲,当那股票除了多次权后站在30多元时,最终的冲动被煽动起来,股票一直被别人忽悠上了80多元,当这位看着自己近百亿的市值很兴奋时,后面的黄雀已经出手,庄家吃庄家从来都是很爽的。
  
  这个市场,出名的都是傻瓜,连名都看不透的人根本就该死,死了也没人值得同情。这位最后是逃掉了还是干掉了已经不重要。写到这里,不禁想起本女几年前写的一首七律:
  
  拜佛求禅只是贪,趋生远祸尽痴谈。
  醒迷困眼心诚窄,苦乐摇情酒更憨。
  空且应离其执有,一犹不立宁居三。
  惊风飘日云沙赤,浪涌千江入海蓝。
  
  (十三)
  
  继续富豪们。昨天说的故事,大概对市场有点了解的人都知道是说谁了,虽然这个谁N年前突然在北京别墅里人间蒸发,但故事是无法蒸发的,而下面这个,应该说还在进行中。所谓的进行,其实也已经结束,吐鲁番的葡萄早熟了,也就等着别人吃了。至于吐不吐葡萄皮,大概也没他们兄弟什么事情了。
  
  在他们开始第一个股票建仓的时候,本女就已经熟知。当时,他们那破航母还在那遥远的地方,但航母级的设想已经有了。就算最近,本女偶然碰到他们一些还在外面的高层,对他最开始的一些想法还是佩服有加的,总觉得是运气不好,看来都是些死不改悔的主。
  
  说实在,2000年前本女对他们虽然没什么好感、至少也没什么反感,后来发现他们越走越远,开始有点不择手段,就开始冷眼观之了。市场就这么小,真能干点事情的也就这几群人,打个照面甚至摩擦一下都是常有的事情。本女2001年头B股行情结束后就完全离开国内的市场,周围的人也玩石油的玩石油,搞港股的搞港股,转地产的转地产,留在国内股票市场的都是躲在湘西被清剿的主,噩耗天天传来,听都听到麻木了。那几年常常有人问,熊市什么时候结束呀,本女总是开玩笑说,你看那几兄弟都还没结束,结束什么呀。
  
  性格决定命运,他们兄弟能招集一大堆人,有的现在还在卖命,当然是有性格上的特点的。有些人出事,自己跑得比兔子还快,这种人就算以后没事回来,大概也没人会理了。而他们算是能扛事的人,自己不躲,熬到最后,虽然是傻瓜一个,也算傻的有点可爱。
  
  但傻瓜就是傻瓜,傻瓜的最大特点就是一根筋。所谓计划赶不上变化,计划越大死得越快。在技术上讲,2000年前后只是一个14年大升浪的最后一个子浪,其后出现大调整对于一个有大计划的人来说,怎么会不事先预计到。说白了,如果他们的计划提早2、3年,可能一切都会是另外一种情况。而他们的计划又设计得弱智无比,属于死扛扛到底的那种,以为不断充气就能挺住,但任何事情都有极限的,当一个计划设计得只能一条路走到黑时,这样都不死,真是没天理了。
  
  有没有天理其实并不重要,最重要的是一定要知道事情的界限,在中国,第一首要的就是要讲政治,一点政治头脑政治触角都没有,搞什么最终都要死!而且搞得越大死得越快。他们兄弟也老大不小了,都比本女大好多,这点都不明白,还搞什么搞?
  
  不明白这点的人多了去了,可以这样说,这10几年死的富豪们,无一例外,归根结底,都是死在这一点上。其实这一点也不单单是中国的特色,全世界一样,全世界的历史都表明着这一点。政治是有底线的,政治的不存在是以其无所不在为前提的。当然,各国的底线不同,但结构和运行模式是一样的。以前的不说,现在对此最深有体会的,大概就是那些如热锅上蚂蚁的房地产商们了。资本市场的故事就不继续说了,明天开始说说这房地产富豪们。
  
  (十四)
  
  说了几天的资本市场庄家们,也要换换口味,说说这房地产富豪们。其实,房地产富豪们弄出规模后很多都在资本市场上混,看看曾有多少股票被房地产富豪们收购过就明白了。房地产富豪们很牛这种现象,在美国等地方,是很难见到的。大概是受到香港的影响,另外,中国人,好象没个自己的房子就不塌实,也就造就了一大批房地产富豪们了。但现实中的房地产富豪们难道真的就是因为以上原因而不断出现的?当然不是!对于1浪的资本积累来说,权力游戏在房地产中有着最直接的反映。
  
  资本市场中混大的人,一般是看不起所谓的房地产商的。一般的房地产商也没什么钱,以前启动一个项目,有个几千万已经不得了了,而几千万在资本市场里,也就刚刚是一个大散户而已。说白了,房地产以前最吸引人的地方就是基本可以空手套白狼,这里指的不是骗买家之类的违法行为,而是基本合法地空手套白狼,而这空手后面,当然是需要权力来支持的。
  
  理论先不说,先说故事,说说这空手套白狼的故事。并不是因为这个人太有名了,只是为了保证别人基本的隐私,所以不仅名字不说,城市也不说了:当这位口袋里就揣着5万元跑到中国十大城市之一的A地时,口袋里唯一还带着的只是一封介绍信。但有了介绍信也不一定能见到想见的人的,也算他运气好,刚好碰到一个他想见的人的老熟人。这个老熟人又恰好是个老好人,什么都没要他的,就把他带去了。要见的人虽然不是当地最牛的人,因为当地牛人简直太多了,但也足够牛了。不过这位牛人看了介绍信后并没有继续谈下去,把东西交给了秘书就走了。秘书也搞不懂深浅,既然要投资,就写封介绍信让他去下面谈。然后这位一分钱没掏,连饭都没请吃,半个小时换了封介绍信就走了。
  
  下面的人同样搞不懂深浅,一看介绍信,就把当地最大的一块地拿给这位开发了。但这位并没有钱,本来就只想把地先忽悠下来,再找人投资。大概是该他走运了,刚好碰到房改,有一个最牛的单位正好需要N栋的房子,听说这位已经把地拿到,主动上门把定金就交上了。然后,后面的事情就不用说了,鸡有了,酱油有了,连火都有了,弄只酱油鸡出来还不是这个世界上一件最简单的事情?后来,这地开发完了,就开后面的,一期接一期,成了最牛的房地产富豪之一。坊间都盛传其人有如何如何的背景,其实什么都没有,一切就只是从一个本来都递不上的介绍信开始的。
  
  本女喜欢看足球,凌晨有很多场比赛,要先去休息了,今天也就先写到这里,明天再继续房地产富豪们。
  
  (待续)
  
作者:喜欢数学的女孩1 回复日期:2005-9-11 21:09:44 
  这几天忙着一个项目,没时间写“只不过是人--本女所交往的亿万富豪们!”,今天回来本来想继续,结果发现网上已经风云大变,南方一份出名的报纸把网上半年多前一个所谓富豪与平民大论战的意淫帖子又拿来头版意淫一番,整个网络就象开了锅。本女最近如果还接着写什么富豪们,就成了一件很没品位的事情。本女写的东西都是亲身经历的,根本不想在这时候和这些空对空的意淫东西混在一起,不过本女经历的事情也很多,暂时不写富豪,已经开了新帖子“人只不过是人--本女所交往的省部官员们!(连载)”,这个帖子等这风过去后继续!



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作者:喜欢数学的女孩1 回复日期:2005-9-19 16:37:51 
  今晚有应酬,不能写帖子了。三我,铁丝,这里再步七绝一首,你们继续:“万古长空春复秋,一朝风月乍星流。乱蜂深处斜阳下,木落花飞愁自愁”,最后把前面写过的打一个大包,希望斑竹能快点分帖子:
  
  人只不过是人--本女所交往的省部官员们!(一)
  
   这几天忙着一个项目,没时间写“人只不过是人--本女所交往的亿万富豪们!”,今天回来本来想继续,结果发现网上已经风云大变,南方一份出名的报纸把网上半年多前一个所谓富豪与平民大论战的意淫帖子又拿来头版意淫一番,整个网络就象开了锅。本女最近如果还接着写什么富豪们,就成了一件很没品位的事情。本女写的东西都是亲身经历的,根本不想在这时候和这些空对空的意淫东西混在一起,不过本女经历的事情也很多,暂时不写富豪,也可以写写官员们。当然,官员很多,本女这里限定在省部一级以上的,这个层次的官员一般人很少接触,本女只是就亲身的经历写一下,其中依然有一些深入的反思,和富豪们那帖子是一样的,并不想写成一个八卦文章,只是写事情,不具体写具体的人。当然,等这一阵网上的无聊富豪风刮过去后,本女会继续完成富豪们那帖子的,后面还长着了,但本女一定会有头有尾,把它写完。这里就先开始省部官员们。
  
  本女接触的最早一位省部官员,要追溯到80年代,也就是20年前了,那时候,本女虽然还处在儿童阶段,但基本的记忆还是清楚的。那位当时是沿海一个大省的头,母亲和他的女儿是同事,春节的时候,他的女儿请我们去玩。本女那时候完全没有什么官员级别的概念,只是觉得那位是一个很逗的伯伯。他一见我们来,就让母亲进去和他女儿聊天,他自己拿了一包糖出来,在厅里逗我玩。那房子也不是什么别墅之类的东西,面积当然比较大,但也没有什么特别的。
  
  有人可能会说,80年代的官员当然没什么特别,现在的就很难说了。其实,这也不一定。前几天,本女刚去过一位老将军家,他的级别当然比省部要高。他住的房子是一个院子,那里面都是一个个的小院子。说实在,那房子都是很老的房子,如果门口没有士兵守着,可能还以为在一个普通的四合院。房子两层,进去里面还以为到了一个大杂院,唯一不同的就是只是一家人住。房子有点阴暗,客厅里的家私都是很老的,放眼过去没有任何贵重的东西,电视是21寸的,里面唯一显眼的东西就是几幅将军本人和几代国家领导人的合影。
  
  在北京,都知道,有所谓的部长楼。一般人可能以为,部长楼是很高档的东西,其实不是的。用一个最出名的部长楼为例子,楼房是高层的,形状是那种典型的风车型,一层三户,每户面积基本一样,都是200平米多点,厅不超过30平米,有四个房子,有人把饭厅格开,也有弄成5个房子的。电梯是那种很旧式的,面积很小,还需要人开。几年前,电梯还出过事情,因为突然失灵把一个人给夹着撕开了,这种事情大概不是一般人所能想到的。以前,正部级也有住这里的,后来都是副部住了。正部级现在一般都住几层的那种,格局大点好点,但像刚才那老将军住的院子,他们是没资格住的。
  
  (二)
  
  今天有了富豪们那帖子被剽窃的事情,官员们这篇当然也会有,所以不得不声明一下:转载没问题,请说明出处。这大概不是一个很麻烦的事情吧?为什么一定要把“喜欢数学的女孩”删掉改另外的名字?这不更麻烦?另外,有一个叫三我的在网上跟帖中写了一首七绝给本女,本女答应他步韵一首,这里顺便完成。三我原诗“渺渺天涯渺渺秋,痴云醉日半山流。可怜一水横空去,万顷烟波不解愁!”本女一向不喜欢写什么情诗,本女有帖子就说过,爱情这种东西只能是智力低下的人玩的游戏,也就随手胡诌一首:“渺渺天涯渺渺秋,绮霞烟水自空流。谁怜西岭西风后,满地相思满地愁!”闲话闲事完了,富豪那个暂时不写了,就继续官员们!
  
  昨天说到一些省部或以上官员的房子,但说的都是北京的事情。在北京,地球人都知道,哪里住是和级别相关的,但无论什么级别,相对来说,北京的还是很正常的。同级别的,一般来说,京官比地方的官员要差远了,而这一点其实是很正常的。以前有个朋友,当时还只是正局,每天骑单车上下班,距离大概等于从天安门到四环,这种事情在地方上大概很少出现。
  
  说起骑车,地方上其实也是有的。也就几年前的事情,这位当时已经是某省的头了,他就是不大愿意坐车,愿意骑车走路上班。这样有好也有不好,至少搞保卫的人最不乐意了,出了事情责任是他们的。这位下厂下乡都不愿意带人,有时候自己就跑出去了。和他同时的当地的二把手就是另一种了,以后会说。现在,这位好歹也京官了,后面那位就进去了,这说明了什么,大概不是一句话能说清楚的。
  
  谁都知道,从官员到公务员是截然不同的,目前中国的情况大概只能说公务员是现实的理想,对官员,也就只能探求理想的现实了。理想的现实是什么?其实理想的现实就只能是现实,本女从来不相信什么超越现实的理想,任何现实的改变最终都将现实,而站在理想的角度,现实永远都是有罪的。就像站在上帝的角度,一切人都是有罪的,而上帝是什么?上帝什么都不是!
  
  (三)
  忙了一天,唯一高兴的事情就是中秋前不用去全国人民最不待见的地方,唯一不高兴的事情就是中秋后第一件事情就要去那地方,不过至少有几天可以继续写官员们了。对比以前写富豪们,本女隐隐觉得有点写得不爽,好象无形有很多忌讳的地方,这种忌讳甚至不能算是意识上的,细细想来,这大概又可以归结到一种民族的集体无意识。
  
  在中国几千年的文字历史中,所谓官商,官总是在商前面的。在大众心里,无商不奸,而几千年来,面对众多贪官污吏的现实,所谓清官的理想还总是被理想。当然,后来也有了清官更坏的说法,但也只停留在一种说法而已。但在本女看来,人只不过是人,无所谓清官贪官。请问,世界上谁人不贪?贪权贪财贪色者占了99%,剩下1%贪个名,清名也是名,真是无贪无求者更是大贪,贪着长生不老、成仙成佛,世间三毒,贪嗔痴,贪为首,如果真不贪的,还能来到这个世界?连争先恐后往卵子里挤的精子都是以贪为动力,孰能不贪?
  
  将官员分为清官贪官本来就是一种很无聊的想法,也是大众喜欢的非白即黑的想法。昨天说到,从官员到公务员是截然不同的,只要还继续停留在几千年的官员阶段,就算出一万个所谓的包龙图,也还是逗你玩,白搭。当然,公务员阶段并不会突然进入什么世外桃源,本女也不相信什么制度的废话,但从官员到公务员还是截然不同的。
  
  当然,还有一种儒教的理想,人人尧舜,修身齐家平天下。这些都是书斋中脑子进水想出来的东西。人人已经人人了,尧舜也只不过是人人,上帝没有,为什么还要自己造一个?世界正因为五彩斑斓才成为世界,没有贪官,就象世界没有了黑夜,世界还能是世界吗?贪官不可怕,世界有的是豺狼虎豹,世界还不依然世界?人,即使把自己意淫成上帝,还永远是人!而无论官不官的,人也只不过是人!
  
  (四)
  
  昨天写的官员们(三)可能会令很多人愤怒,大概都以为本女在为所谓的贪官说好话。其实,本女连清官都没什么好话可说,何况贪官。本女在帖子的第一篇已经明确说过,不想把这写成八卦文章,只是把自己经历的人和事情进行一个反思的叙述,自然把没必要的细节都省略了。对熟悉情况的人,不难明白本女所写,本女显然没义务把这帖子写成一本通俗小说或报告文学。本女更希望把这个帖子写成一个对官员们的考察研究报告,能否接受是各位的事情,本女没兴趣知道。
  
  昨天说到官商,本女也曾写过富豪们,商场如战场,其实能在商场上混好的,并不一定能在官场上混好,看看那些下海的,说实话基本都是官场上的初哥,大多都是混不下去的。很多人,特别是知识分子,自以为清高,看不起当官的。用“倚天屠龙记”里的武功相类比,知识分子、商人之类的,混得多厉害,也就是练练什么七伤拳、混元霹雳手之类的招数,而官场一开练就是乾坤大挪移,根本就不是一个层次上的游戏。知识分子永远就是眼高手低,这也是国家绝对不能交给知识分子的最重要原因,所谓书生误国,一点都不假。
  
  但人的资质有时候真是天生的,有些人毕生投入可能也只能练到乾坤大挪移的第六层。像官员这种需要全方位综合能力的游戏,经常发生的就是修炼层次与实际要应付的层次发生错位。就像本来只练到乾坤大挪移第六重,却不得不面对乾坤大挪移第九重才能面对的事情,这样鲜有不出问题的。
  
  例如某公,虽然后人好歹也有一省部了,本女与此公后人也多有交往,但由于80年代此公仙去时,本女还在孩提,无缘亲见此公风采。不过,本女一忘年好友的父亲与此公是多年战友挚交,是在此公最辉煌时也能经常到他家吃吃饭玩一玩的关系,所以经常与本女论及此公,最终结论也同意本女所说,如果只有乾坤大挪移第六重功力却身不由己地硬要在九重之上施展,就算鞠躬尽瘁,到头来又怎么能不“长使英雄泪满襟”?
  
  还有一位,情况类似。唯一不同的是此公现在心宽体健的,20多年来潜心书法,有缘识货者都争相收藏,片鳞只字都弥足珍贵。当然,从纯书法的角度,此公依然有百尺竿头、更进一步的潜力,大概心中仍有不稳之处,眼前有意,笔意成碍,不能横古横今,盖天盖地。当世之人,有此公经历者绝无仅有,眼界心界一旦大开,自能大成。他日若能挥墨纵横,气压三晋,笔扫九朝,令何绍基、于佑任之辈望风而逃,岂不快哉?
  
  
  !(五)
  
  今天北京又陷入一点小雨就全城大塞车的怪圈,也好,把今晚的事情都改到明天,这样就有时间继续写官员们了。只是有个闲事要先打点一下,第二篇时曾提到有位三我(其实叫我的我是我1)在本女跟帖中为本女写了七绝一首,本女也礼尚往来,步韵回了一首。结果又有位叫数女铁丝的也步韵一首: “渺渺天涯渺渺秋,乾坤一水古今流。巫云楚雨催昏晓,半入相思半入愁。”要和三我比赛,为了不要继续原来本女所厌恶的爱情路子,本女先换个调子再步韵一首 “满城风雨满城秋,一水横空天地流。独上孤峰倾百斗,披云啸尽古今愁。”。三我接了一首“万山风雨万山秋,浊水舂天碾地流。一叶飘然沧海去,任凭欢喜任凭愁。”,数女铁丝也接一首“乾坤梦入几春秋,刹那风云岁月流。剑胆琴心横浩气,须弥踏破死生愁。”,由于这次步韵接力因本女帖子而起,大家可以顺便评判优劣,有兴趣能力者也可接力下去。闲话说过,继续官员们。
  
  昨天所写,明白者自然受用良多,不明白的本女也没义务让他明白。今天说说这“学而优则仕”。所谓的“学而优则仕”,是中国的老传统,也是被批判得最多的,特别来自一些所谓知识分子们的批判,就更是恶毒,好象这成了中国最终积弱的罪恢祸首之一。其实这都是所谓知识分子脑子进水后的瞎掰,请问,如果“学而优则仕”真是中国最终积弱的罪恢祸首之一,那导致这的原因是什么,这个原因的原因又是什么,以此类推,请问有一个终极的原因吗?还是“学而优则仕”就是终极原因之一?这类问题的出现都来自企图通过现象摸索本质的混乱思维。本女从来不相信现象后面有什么本质,本质就像上帝,是人造的,如果真有什么本质,本质也不过是现象而已。学而优则仕,只是一种现象,并不是因为它就能导致什么。所谓缘生,任何现象,众缘和合才可能生起,“学而优则仕”、“中国最终积弱”也一样,并不是什么就决定的。
  
  这种决定论的思维,也就是一根筋的思维,而所谓的辨证法、系统论都只不过是这种一根筋思维的近现代版本。而对于昨天提到的乾坤大挪移来说,一根筋思维是最大的障碍。商场、官场、战场,这三个地方都是最要不得一根筋思维的,这点有点像禅宗,就算你说得天花乱坠,决定论、辨证法、系统论之类一套接一套,但也一点边都沾不上。而事实上也是,在中国,唐宋以后,官员们参禅的特别多,这里的名人太多了,基本唐宋以后中国的官员们都多少和禅宗沾些关系,这除了所谓“英雄到老皆归佛”之外,更主要是还是官场沉浮,境界自然和禅宗就容易接近了,如果说现象,这才是值得关注的现象。
  
  (六)
  
  最近写富豪们、官员们,好象引起很多人不满,不满之一觉得本女在招摇,中国历史上最招人恨的就是招摇,这点本女当然知道,但本女对招恨这种反应一点兴趣都没有,恨是尔等的,与本女何干?连杜老夫子都可以豪气一下“尔曹身与名俱灭,不废江河万古流”,本女就更没把招恨当多大事了。本女也没必要向人解释之所以招摇的所谓目的,知者知之,不知者非汝境界,说了也白说,那本女凭什么说?
  
  不满之二,觉得本女没有细节,议论比故事多,这点本女早就说过了,又不是写八卦文章,没细节都要编些细节,不是对反思有意义的细节,本女是一概不写。本女写文章是为了反思,并不是为了满足某些人猎奇的心理。例如,某公是现存最出名的人物之一了,其儿子也已是最出名的省部之一了,此公快100岁了,身体还很好,平时有熟人来还能上上四方城,期间当然有很多细节,但这些东西对本女的反思好像一点意义都没有,这类事情,本女是不会写的。
  
  好,还是继续按本女的思路写官员们。昨天提到禅宗自唐宋以来和官员们关系之密切,古人就不说了,说说今人。也是有人喜欢,又因为五四以来的文化大断裂,南怀瑾之流所谓的国学大师得以在社会上影响很大,在官员们中影响当然也小不了,其中还真有特痴迷的。例如有一位熟人,严格说不是纯粹的官员,只是个部级企业的头之一,50多岁的人,本来都是曾经沧海难为水的,但一旦被某种东西迷住,比超女的粉丝们也一点不次。最经典的是每次飞机上都要打坐,本女一向对别人的事情都没兴趣管,但有时候还真想问:大叔,你哪天突然功力深厚,意念上打个冷战把飞机打下来,和你一起飞机的人怎么办呀?好像这种活动还真不应该在公共场合进行,都50多岁人了。
  
  以上的例子比较极端,也就当一个笑话了。基本上云门法眼之后,禅宗也无所谓禅宗了,说起云门法眼,本女想起一幅本女写的曾引起争论的对联“日本东出,照遍四国九州;道元空归,源通云门法眼”,道元空归,何谓道,所谓盗亦有道,而官又何曾无道?不说“道可道,非常道”的废话,所谓道,总出不了“道元空归”四字。
  
  “道元空归”,过于壁立千仞了,还是说说这所谓的官道,大概平易一些,今天先说这个“官”字。官,本义是宾馆、客舍,然后引申为朝廷的办事处、官府,或官方的、公家的,前者又引申为官员、官职、职位、职责等,进一步引申为器官、管理等,最后还成为一种对人的尊称,大概官人也算一种吧。在儒家的思维下,官就成了主、事、法、公,对应的就有“不官与物而旁通于道”、“天地官矣”、“其官于天地”、“五帝官天下”,这就是“官”的缘起。
  
  
  (七)
  
  明天中秋了,当然要停写,但今天还是要继续官员们。不过先说一闲事,依然和那步韵有关。今天那三我有又来了首“一天风雨一天秋,江海生涯任水流。白鸟青山时入眼,乾坤无事落闲愁。”,数女铁丝接了首“一生风雨一生秋,天地虚舟清浊流。岂逐白鸥湖海梦,红尘随处入穷愁。”,本女答应他们也要步一首,如下:“一番风雨一番秋,依旧青山枕碧流。溅血长虹贯天地,羲和鞭堕六龙愁”。这步韵越来越好玩,有兴趣能力者可以继续。
  
  闲话说过,还是说说这“官”字。昨天说了,在儒家的思维下,官就成了主、事、法、公,而这四字,就成了历代“官”们冠冕堂皇的四字箴言了。贪官污吏从这四字而来,青天大老爷也从这四字而来,中国传统讲究的是名正则言顺,还是要先把这四字的来龙去脉搞清楚,今天先说这个“主”字。
  
  主,本义是灯心,然后顺次有了家长、主人、首领、当事人、事物的根本、主持、专一、从自身出发等意思。后面的意思其实从前面而来,灯心是“主”的最重要象征。灯心表示什么,表示大众的黑夜需要其光明,禅宗说人人自有光明在,大概主们官们是不能认同的。
  
  这里十分反讽的是,在西方,主是有明确所指的,就是上帝。圣经一开始,主就把光明带出,这也是符合中国文字中这主的灯心本义的。对于西方人来说,光明是主的、上帝的,因此官,只不过是人,就不可能是主,所以,对于西方逻辑来说,公务员这种东西就是顺理成章的事情。
  
  当然,站在中国式的逻辑上,主是基本没有上帝含义的,正因为没有了上帝的主,所以就有了人的主,所以有了儒教的逻辑,也就有了几千年官场的逻辑。即使所谓的人民当家作主,这种观念对于西方来说也是陌生的。西方社会的基本信念就是契约,这个也和宗教有关,上帝和摩西就玩过这个契约的游戏,站在西方的逻辑上,除了上帝,任何的主都是虚假的,都是魔鬼的诱惑,包括所谓的人民当家作主。
  
  正因为以上历史、民族、文化逻辑的巨大差异,也就形成了东西方官场文化的巨大差异。这里必须说明的是,西方一样有贪污腐化,但他们的原因和中国是不一样的。对于西方来说,制度是可以说的,但他们更明白,任何的制度都是有缺陷的,就像哥德尔不完全定理所揭示的。当然,当他们的传教士跑来传教的时候,是不会说这些的,天下的王婆都一样,而这些西方王婆,还不单单把瓜卖出那么简单,那就更多心眼了。
  
  (待续)


^O^

22 Dec 2009

千字文

千字文
http://www.dxgzs.com/bd/012.htm

天地玄黄 宇宙洪荒 日月盈昃 辰宿列张 寒来暑往 秋收冬藏
闰馀成岁 律吕调阳 云腾致雨 露结为霜 金生丽水 玉出昆冈
剑号巨阙 珠称夜光 果珍李柰 菜重芥姜 海咸河淡 鳞潜羽翔
龙师火帝 鸟官人皇 始制文字 乃服衣裳 推位让国 有虞陶唐
吊民伐罪 周发殷汤 坐朝问道 垂拱平章 爱育黎首 臣伏戎羌
遐迩一体 率宾归王 鸣凤在竹 白驹食场 化被草木 赖及万方
盖此身发 四大五常 恭惟鞠养 岂敢毁伤 女慕贞洁 男效才良
知过必改 得能莫忘 罔谈彼短 靡恃己长 信使可复 器欲难量
墨悲丝染 诗赞羔羊 景行维贤 克念作圣 德建名立 形端表正
空谷传声 虚堂习听 祸因恶积 福缘善庆 尺璧非宝 寸阴是竞
资父事君 曰严与敬 孝当竭力 忠则尽命 临深履薄 夙兴温凊
似兰斯馨 如松之盛 川流不息 渊澄取映 容止若思 言辞安定
笃初诚美 慎终宜令 荣业所基 籍甚无竟 学优登仕 摄职从政
存以甘棠 去而益咏 乐殊贵贱 礼别尊卑 上和下睦 夫唱妇随
外受傅训 入奉母仪 诸姑伯叔 犹子比儿 孔怀兄弟 同气连枝
切磨箴规 仁慈隐恻 造次弗离 节义廉退 颠沛匪亏 性静情逸
心动神疲 守真志满 逐物意移 坚持雅操 好爵自縻
都邑华夏 东西二京 背邙面洛 浮渭据泾 宫殿盘郁 楼观飞惊
图写禽兽 画彩仙灵 丙舍傍启 甲帐对楹 肆筵设席 鼓瑟吹笙
升阶纳陛 弁转疑星 右通广内 左达承明 既集坟典 亦聚群英
杜稿钟隶 漆书壁经
府罗将相 路侠槐卿 户封八县 家给千兵 高冠陪辇 驱毂振缨
世禄侈富 车驾肥轻 策功茂实 勒碑刻铭 磻溪伊尹 佐时阿衡
奄宅曲阜 微旦孰营 桓公匡合 济弱扶倾 绮回汉惠 说感武丁
俊乂密勿 多士寔宁 晋楚更霸 赵魏困横 假途灭虢 践土会盟
何遵约法 韩弊烦刑 起翦颇牧 用军最精 宣威沙漠 驰誉丹青
九州禹迹 百郡秦并 岳宗泰岱 禅主云亭 雁门紫塞 鸡田赤城
昆池碣石 巨野洞庭 旷远绵邈 岩岫杳冥
治本于农 务资稼穑 俶载南亩 我艺黍稷 税熟贡新 劝赏黜陟
孟轲敦素 史鱼秉直 庶几中庸 劳谦谨敕 聆音察理 鉴貌辨色
贻厥嘉猷 勉其祗植 省躬讥诫 宠增抗极 殆辱近耻 林皋幸即
两疏见机 解组谁逼 索居闲处 沉默寂寥 求古寻论 散虑逍遥
欣奏累遣 戚谢欢招
渠荷的历 园莽抽条 枇杷晚翠 梧桐蚤凋 陈根委翳 落叶飘摇
游鹍独运 凌摩绛霄 耽读玩市 寓目囊箱 易輶攸畏 属耳垣墙
具膳餐饭 适口充肠 饱饫烹宰 饥厌糟糠 亲戚故旧 老少异粮
妾御绩纺 侍巾帷房
纨扇圆絜 银烛炜煌 昼眠夕寐 蓝笋象床 弦歌酒宴 接杯举觞
矫手顿足 悦豫且康 嫡后嗣续 祭祀烝尝 稽颡再拜 悚惧恐惶
笺牒简要 顾答审详 骸垢想浴 执热愿凉 驴骡犊特 骇跃超骧
诛斩贼盗 捕获叛亡
布射僚丸 嵇琴阮啸 恬笔伦纸 钧巧任钓 释纷利俗 竝皆佳妙
毛施淑姿 工颦妍笑 年矢每催 曦晖朗曜 璇玑悬斡 晦魄环照
指薪修祜 永绥吉劭 矩步引领 俯仰廊庙 束带矜庄 徘徊瞻眺
孤陋寡闻 愚蒙等诮 谓语助者 焉哉乎也


千字文解释

天地玄黄 宇宙洪荒: 苍天是黑色的,大地是黄色的;茫茫宇宙辽阔无边。

日月盈昃 辰宿列张: 太阳有正有斜,月亮有缺有圆;星辰布满在无边的太空中。

寒来暑往 秋收冬藏: 寒暑循环变换,来了又去,去了又来;秋季里忙着收割,冬天里忙着储藏。

闰余成岁 律吕调阳: 积累数年的闰余并成一个月,放在闰年里;古人用六律六吕来调节阴阳。

云腾致雨 露结为霜: 云气升到天空,遇冷就形成雨;露水碰上寒夜,很快凝结为霜。

金生丽水 玉出昆冈: 金子生于金沙江底,玉石出自昆仑山岗。

剑号巨阙 珠称夜光: 最有名的宝剑叫“巨阙”,最贵重的明珠叫“夜光”。

果珍李柰 菜重芥姜: 果子中最珍贵的是李和柰,蔬菜中最看重的是芥和姜。

海咸河淡 鳞潜羽翔: 海水咸,河水淡;鱼儿在水中潜游,鸟儿在空中飞翔。

龙师火帝 鸟官人皇: 龙师、火帝、鸟官、人皇:这都是上古时代的帝皇官员。

始制文字 乃服衣裳: 有了仓颉,开始创造了文字,有了嫘祖,人们才穿起了遮身盖体的衣裳。

推位让国 有虞陶唐: 唐尧、虞舜英明无私,主动把君位禅让给功臣贤人。

吊民伐罪 周发殷汤: 安抚百姓,讨伐暴君,有周武王姬发和商君成汤。

坐朝问道 垂拱平章: 贤君身坐朝廷,探讨治国之道,垂衣拱手,和大臣共商国事。

爱育黎首 臣伏戎羌: 他们爱抚、体恤老百姓,四方各族人都归附向往。

遐迩一体 率宾归王: 远远近近都统一在一起,全都心甘情屈服贤君。

鸣凤在竹 白驹食场: 凤凰在竹林中欢鸣,白马在草场上觅食,国泰民安,处处吉祥。

化被草木 赖及万方: 贤君的教化覆盖大自然的一草一木,恩泽遍及天下百姓。

盖此身发 四大五常: 人的身体发肤分属于“四大”,一言一动都要符合“五常”。

恭惟鞠养 岂敢毁伤: 恭蒙父母亲生养爱护,不可有一丝一毫的毁坏损伤。

女慕贞洁 男效才良: 女子要思慕那些为人称道的贞妇洁女,男子要效法有德有才的贤人。

知过必改 得能莫忘: 知道自己有过错,一定要改正;适合自己干的事,不要放弃。

罔谈彼短 靡恃己长: 不要去谈论别人的短处,也不要依仗自己有长处就不思进取。

信使可复 器欲难量: 诚实的话要能经受时间的考验;器度要大,让人难以估量。

墨悲丝染 诗赞羔羊: 墨子为白丝染色不褪而悲泣,「诗经」中因此有「羔羊」篇传扬。

景行维贤 克念作圣: 高尚的德行只能在贤人那里看到;要克制私欲,努力仿效圣人。

德建名立 形端表正: 养成了好的道德,就会有好的名声;就像形体端庄,仪表也随之肃穆一样。

空谷传声 虚堂习听: 空旷的山谷中呼喊声传得很远,宽敞的厅堂里说话声非常清晰。

祸因恶积 福缘善庆: 祸害是因为多次作恶积累而成,幸福是由于常年行善得到的奖赏。

尺璧非宝 寸阴是竞: 一尺长的璧玉算不上宝贵,一寸短的光阴却值得去争取。

资父事君 曰严与敬: 供养父亲,待奉国君,要做到认真、谨慎、恭敬。

孝当竭力 忠则尽命: 对父母孝,要尽心竭力;对国君忠,要不惜献出生命。

临深履薄 夙兴温凊: 要“如临深渊,如履薄冰”那样小心谨慎;要早起晚睡,让父母冬暖夏凉。

似兰斯馨 如松之盛: 能这样去做,德行就同兰花一样馨香,同青松一样茂盛。

川流不息 渊澄取映: 还能延及子孙,像大河川流不息;影响世人,像碧潭清澄照人。

容止若思 言辞安定: 仪态举止要庄重,看上去若有所思;言语措辞要稳重,显得从容沉静。

笃初诚美 慎终宜令: 无论修身、求学、重视开头固然不错,认真去做,有好的结果更为重要。

荣业所基 籍甚无竟: 有德能孝是事业显耀的基础,这样的人声誉盛大,传扬不已。

学优登仕 摄职从政: 学习出色并有余力,就可走上仕道〈做官〉,担任一定的职务,参与国家的政事。

存以甘棠 去而益咏: 召公活着时曾在甘棠树下理政,他过世后老百姓对他更加怀念歌咏。

乐殊贵贱 礼别尊卑: 选择乐曲要根据人的身份贵贱有所不同;采用礼节要按照人的地位高低有所区别。

上和下睦 夫唱妇随: 长辈和小辈要和睦相处,夫妇要一唱一随,协调和谐。 

外受傅训 入奉母仪: 在外面要听从师长的教诲,在家里要遵守母亲的规范。

诸姑伯叔 犹子比儿: 对待姑姑、伯伯、叔叔等长辈,要像是他们的亲生子女一样。

孔怀兄弟 同气连枝: 兄弟之间要非常相爱,因为同受父母血气,犹如树枝相连。

交友投分 切磨箴规: 结交朋友要意相投,学习上切磋琢磨,品行上互相告勉。

仁慈隐恻 造次弗离: 仁义、慈爱,对人的恻隐之心,在最仓促、危急的情况下也不能拋离。

节义廉退 颠沛匪亏: 气节、正义、廉洁、谦让的美德,在最穷困潦倒的时候也不可亏缺。

性静情逸 心动神疲: 品性沉静淡泊,情绪就安逸自在;内心浮躁好动,精神就疲惫困倦。

守真志满 逐物意移: 保持纯洁的天性,就会感到满足;追求物欲享受,天性就会转移改变。

坚持雅操 好爵自縻: 坚持高尚铁情操,好的职位自然会为你所有。

都邑华夏 东西二京: 古代的都城华美壮观,有东京洛阳和西京长安。

背邙面洛 浮渭据泾: 东京洛阳背靠北邙山,南临洛水;西京长安左跨渭河,右依泾水。

宫殿盘郁 楼观飞惊: 宫殿盘旋曲折,重重迭迭;楼阁高耸如飞,触目惊心。

图写禽兽 画彩仙灵: 宫殿上绘着各种飞禽走兽,描画出五彩的天仙神灵。

丙舍傍启 甲帐对楹: 正殿两边的配殿从侧面开启,豪华的账幕对着高高的楹柱。

肆筵设席 鼓瑟吹笙: 宫殿中大摆宴席,乐人吹笙鼓瑟,一片歌舞升平的景象。

升阶纳陛 弁转疑星: 登上台阶进入殿堂的文武百官,帽子团团转,像满天的星星。

右通广内 左达承明: 右面通向用以藏书的广内殿,左面到达朝臣休息的承明殿。

既集坟典 亦聚群英: 这里收藏了很多的典籍名著,也集着成群的文武英才。

杜稿钟隶 漆书壁经: 书殿中有杜度的草书、钟繇的录书,还有漆写的古籍和孔壁中的经典。

府罗将相 路侠槐卿: 宫延内将想依次排成两列,宫廷外大夫公卿夹道站立。

户封八县 家给千兵: 他们每户有八县之广的封地,配备成千以上的士兵。

高冠陪辇 驱毂振缨: 他们戴着高高的官帽,陪着皇帝出游,驾着车马,帽带飘舞着,好不威风。

世禄侈富 车驾肥轻: 他们的子孙世代领受俸禄,奢侈豪富,出门时轻车肥马,春风得意。

策功茂实 勒碑刻铭: 朝廷还详尽确实地记载他们的功德,刻在碑石上流传后世。

磻溪伊尹 佐时阿衡: 周武王磻溪遇吕尚,尊他为“太公望”;伊尹辅佐时政,商汤王封他为“阿衡”。

奄宅曲阜 微旦孰营: 周成王占领了古奄国曲阜一带地面,要不是周公旦辅政哪里能成?

桓公匡合 济弱扶倾: 齐桓公九次会合诸侯,出兵援助势单力薄和面临危亡的诸侯小国。

绮回汉惠 说感武丁: 汉惠帝做太子时靠绮里季才幸免废黜,商君武丁感梦而得贤相传说。

俊乂密勿 多士寔宁: 能人治政勤勉努力,全靠许多这样的贤士,国家才富强安宁。

晋楚更霸 赵魏困横: 晋、楚两国在齐之后称霸,赵、魏两国因连横而受困于秦。

假途灭虢 践土会盟: 晋献公向虞国借路去消灭虢国;晋文公在践土与诸侯会盟,推为盟主。

何遵约法 韩弊烦刑: 萧何遵循简约刑法的精神制订九律,韩非却受困于自己所主张的严酷刑法。

起翦颇牧 用军最精: 秦将白起、王翦,赵将廉颇、李牧,带兵打仗最为高明。

宣威沙漠 驰誉丹青: 他们的声威远传到沙漠边地,美誉和画像一起流芳后代。

九州禹迹 百郡秦并: 九州处处有留有大禹治水的足迹,全国各郡在秦并六国后归于统一。

岳宗泰岱 禅主云亭: 五岳中人们最尊崇东岳泰山,历代帝王都在云山和亭山主持禅礼。

雁门紫塞 鸡田赤城: 名关有北疆雁门,要塞有万里长城,驿站有边地鸡田,奇山有天台赤城。

昆池碣石 巨野洞庭: 赏池赴昆明滇池,观海临河北碣石,看泽去山东钜野,望湖上湖南洞庭。

旷远绵邈 岩岫杳冥: 江河源远流长,湖海宽广无边。名山奇谷幽深秀丽,气象万千。

治本于农 务资稼穑: 治国的根本在发展农业,要努力做好播种收获这些农活。

俶载南亩 我艺黍稷: 一年的农活该开始干起来了,我种上小米,又种上高梁。

税熟贡新 劝赏黜陟: 收获季节,用刚熟的新谷交纳税粮,官府应按农户的贡献大小给予奖励或处罚。

孟轲敦素 史鱼秉直: 孟轲夫子崇尚纯洁,史官子鱼秉性刚直。

庶几中庸 劳谦谨敕: 做人要尽可能合乎中庸的标准,勤奋、谦逊、谨慎,懂得规劝告诫自己。

聆音察理 鉴貌辨色: 听别人说话,要仔细审察是否合理;看别人面孔,要小心辨析他的脸色。

贻厥嘉猷 勉其祗植: 要给人家留下正确高明的忠告或建议,勉励别人谨慎小心地处世立身。

省躬讥诫 宠增抗极: 听到别人的讥讽告诫,要反省自身;备受恩宠不要得意忘形,对抗权尊。

殆辱近耻 林皋幸即: 知道有危险耻辱的事快要发生,还不如归隐山林为好。

两疏见机 解组谁逼: 疏广疏受预见到危患的苗头才告老还乡,哪里有谁逼他们除下官印?

索居闲处 沉默寂寥: 离群独居,悠闲度日,整天不用多费唇舌,清静无为岂不是好事。

求古寻论 散虑逍遥: 想想古人的话,翻翻古人的书,消往日的忧虑,乐得逍遥舒服。

欣奏累遣 戚谢欢招: 轻松的事凑到一起,费力的事丢在一边,消除不尽的烦恼,得来无限的快乐。

渠荷的历 园莽抽条: 池里的荷花开得光润鲜艳,园中的草木抽出条条嫩枝。

枇杷晚翠 梧桐蚤凋: 枇杷到了岁晚还是苍翠欲滴,梧桐刚刚交秋就早早地凋谢了。

陈根委翳 落叶飘摇: 陈根老树枯倒伏,落叶在秋风里四处飘荡。

游鵾独运 凌摩绛霄: 寒秋之中,鲲鹏独自高飞,直冲布满彩霞的云霄。

耽读玩市 寓目囊箱: 汉代王充在街市上沉迷留恋于读书,眼睛注视的都是书袋和书箱。

易輶攸畏 属耳垣墙: 说话最怕旁若无人,毫无禁忌;要留心隔着墙壁有人在贴耳偷听。

具膳餐饭 适口充肠: 安排一日三餐的膳食,要适合各位的口味,能让大家吃饱。

饱饫烹宰 饥厌糟糠: 饱的时候自然满足于大鱼大肉,饿的时候应当满足于粗菜淡饭。

亲戚故旧 老少异粮: 亲属、朋友会面要盛情款待,老人、小孩的食物应和自己不同。

妾御绩纺 侍巾帷房: 小妾婢女要管理好家务,尽心恭敬地服待好主人。

纨扇圆絜 银烛炜煌: 绢制的团扇像满月一样又白又圆,银色的烛台上烛火辉煌。

昼眠夕寐 蓝笋象床: 白日小憩,晚上就寝,有青篾编成的竹席和象牙雕屏的床榻。

弦歌酒宴 接杯举觞: 奏着乐,唱着歌,摆酒开宴;接过酒杯,开怀畅饮。

矫手顿足 悦豫且康: 情不自禁地手舞足蹈,真是又快乐又安康。

嫡后嗣续 祭祀烝尝: 子孙继承了祖先的基业,一年四季的祭祀大礼不能疏忘。

稽颡再拜 悚惧恐惶: 跪着磕头,拜了又拜;礼仪要周全恭敬,心情要悲痛虔诚。

笺牒简要 顾答审详: 给别人写信要简明扼要,回答别人间题要详细周全。

骸垢想浴 执热愿凉: 身上有了污垢,就想洗澡,好比手上拿着烫的东西就希望有风把它吹凉。

驴骡犊特 骇跃超骧: 家里有了灾祸,连牲畜都会受惊,狂蹦乱跳,东奔西跑。

诛斩贼盗 捕获叛亡: 对抢劫、偷窃、反叛、逃亡的人要严厉惩罚,该抓的抓,该杀的杀。

布射僚丸 嵇琴阮啸: 吕布擅长射箭,宜僚有弄丸的绝活,嵇康善于弹琴,阮籍能撮口长啸。

恬笔伦纸 钧巧任钓: 蒙恬造出毛笔,蔡伦发明造纸,马钧巧制水车,任公子垂钓大鱼。

释纷利俗 竝皆佳妙: 他们的技艺有的解人纠纷,有的方便群众,都高明巧妙,为人称道。

毛施淑姿 工颦妍笑: 毛嫱、西施年轻美貌,哪怕皱着眉头,也像美美的笑。

年矢每催 曦晖朗曜: 可惜青春易逝,岁月匆匆催人渐老,只有太阳的光辉永远朗照。

璇玑悬斡 晦魄环照: 高悬的北斗随着四季变换转动,明晦的月光洒遍人间每个角落。

指薪修祜 永绥吉劭: 行善积德才能像薪尽火传那样精神长存,子孙安康全靠你留下吉祥的忠告。

矩步引领 俯仰廊庙: 如此心地坦然,方可以昂头迈步,应付朝廷委以的重任。

束带矜庄 徘徊瞻眺: 如此无愧人生,尽可以整束衣冠,庄重从容地高瞻远望。

孤陋寡闻 愚蒙等诮: 这些道理孤陋寡闻就不会明白,只能和愚味无知的人一样空活一世,让人耻笑。

谓语助者 焉哉乎也: 编完「千字文」乌发皆白,最后剩下 “焉、哉、乎、也”这几个语气助词。



http://www.dxgzs.com/bd/012.htm

^O^

16 Dec 2009

揭秘最牛散户的另类吸金术

揭秘最牛散户的另类吸金术

来源:每日经济新闻 2009年11月16日08:43



  伴随着北方的大雪,2009年的这个初冬,“最牛散户”随着明星持股、刘芳复出成为中国资本市场中最热的词汇,这一神秘群体也受到了前所未有的关注,他们的潜伏故事、淘金路线、操作手法,都成为时下投资者最为津津乐道的话题。

  为何“馅饼”总是能够精准地“砸”到他们头上?这是市场给出的最大问号,在上市公司三季报浮出水面之后,A股市场的谍战大剧《潜伏》已隆重开演,主演们将如何翻手为云、覆手为雨,这个答案正在揭晓当中……

  一计:“偷梁换柱、诱敌上钩”

  方式:“克隆”明星股东

  代表人物:“徐帆”、“邓婕”、“郭冬临”

  炒作高手们在玩腻了各种题材股之后,开发出了新的方向,目标直指娱乐圈中的明星。

  上月的最后一个交易日,浙江东方公布的三季报便将徐帆、邓婕两位“星姐”推到了资本市场的风口浪尖,原因是,在该股的十大流通股东名单中,两人的名字赫然在列,且分别位于靠前的第三、四位。此外,新进成为第八大流通股东的刘岩,也与舞蹈明星刘岩同名。颇有戏剧性的是,这三位女星的老公均为知名导演,徐帆的老公是冯小刚,邓婕的老公是张国立,而刘岩的老公则为央视春晚的总导演郎昆。

  浙江东方的八大自然人股东中,有三人与明星同名,这种概率已然很小,而涉及到的这三位明星的关系又非同一般,就更加让人确信这三位股东就是三位明星。

  不过,如果理性地还原浙江东方的这轮炒作大戏,不难发现,事实的真相其实也并不简单,其中遍布了“早有预谋”和“提前布局”的影子。市场早有传言,阿里巴巴将借壳浙江东方回归A股,而阿里巴巴的老板马云也是刚刚上市的华谊兄弟公司的大股东之一,与娱乐圈的人,尤其冯小刚有着密切的私人关系。而11月4日,在浙江东方首度涨停之后,公司又发布公告称,拟参股有着“江南第一猛庄”之称的金信信托,让追捧热度再度升温。

  仅按11月9日收盘价9.2元/股计算,本月,浙江东方的涨幅已高达41.7%,根据徐帆、邓婕和刘岩三位股东的持仓成本推断,她们的账面溢价收益已分别达到418.3万元、344.4万元和180.9万元,获利颇丰。

  “这起明星持股事件,很可能是炒作资金为吸引眼球、拉升股价而制造出的噱头,ST黑龙造富陈好的关注度以及邓婕前期持股都给他们提供了灵感,不可否认,这轮操纵是成功的,但往往聪明反被聪明误,说不定会因此害了自己,目前浙江东方已经开始了下探走势。”一位业内人士这样说。

  除明星徐帆、邓婕外,笑星“郭冬临”所持有的股票也借势遭遇了市场追捧和爆炒,在没有任何确定性利好消息支撑的情况下,中电广通走出两个涨停,连其早前持有的盾安环境和中兵光电也跟着大涨。更值得一提的是,与明星们同名的账户也掀起了收购热,日前,某股票论坛里就出现帖子说,高价征集名字叫“张艺谋”、“章子怡”、“马云”的股票账户,只要同名同姓即可,每年租金5万元。

  上市公司三季报显示,除上述公司外,还有一些明星概念隐于市中,如ST华龙第九位流通股东是“陈宝国”;长力股份第三大流通股东是“汤灿”;ST迈亚第六大流通股东为“牛莉”;ST百花第三大自然人流通股东为“陈小艺”;冠福家用第八大流通股东为“朱军”;华邦制药第十大流通股东为“陆毅”等。

  11月8日,沸腾一时的“明星徐帆、邓婕“潜伏“浙江东方”一事终于真相大白,事实证明只是追涨者的一厢情愿而已。监管部门通告,浙江东方三季报上榜的两位流通股东与明星邓婕、徐帆均属同名同姓,但另有其人。不过,纯粹概率性事件的解释在这种“严重巧合”面前已失去了说服力,更多的人相信,这是炒作资金借此拉高股价的一种做法;同时,也是打造“最牛散户”的惯用伎俩。

  真相大白,原来明星老鼠仓只是一场纯属巧合的肥皂剧而已。但是,那些高位追涨的散户今后的日子可能会不太好过。

  二计:“贵在先知、先发制人”

  方式:提早埋伏“内幕消息”股

  代表人物:许磊、郑雪英、江育仁

  近日,基金“老鼠仓”事件又闹得沸沸扬扬,从涉案金额看,只有几十万元到几百万元,有业内人士就此认为,这表明了监管者对基金市场的不端行为已渐现“零容忍”的态度,但在证券市场上,这个门槛似乎显得宽松得多,总会不时出现一些能够精准“潜伏”,动辄有能力获取几千万、甚至于上亿元盈利的“最牛散户”。

  2009年“最牛散户”之一的许磊就是这样一个善于“潜伏”内幕消息股的人。从2003年以来的6年间,许磊曾先后登上20家上市公司的十大流通股东榜。从其持有的股票看,大多是题材股,且经常伴随资产注入、主营业务转变等重大内幕。

  经过长时间的实践,许磊对进出节奏的把握较好,很多时候,她都是刚刚在某只股票完成建仓,重大利好消息便随之公布,高位套现几乎每次都让他获利丰厚。

  其中,最典型的操作案例为高淳陶瓷。今年一季度,在高淳陶瓷重组还风平浪静之时,许磊就买入了90万股,一举成为其第五大流通股东,持仓成本为500多万元。买入后不久该股就因筹划重大事项而突然停牌,一个月后,高淳陶瓷公布重大重组方案,具有军方背景的中国电子科技集团公司第十四研究所受让高淳陶瓷27.33%股份,成为控股股东。新股东将置入大量优质资产,其主营业务将由陶瓷窑具转型为电子信息。

  这一重组方案公布前后,高淳陶瓷连续收出11个涨停,股价从停牌前最后一个交易日的开盘价7.51元,一路攀升至6月8日收盘价的21.07元。11个交易日,涨幅超过180%。在这波上涨中,许磊精准地清空了股票,在高淳陶瓷半年报公布的时候,许磊的名字已经在十大流通股东中消失。据推算,光在高淳陶瓷一只股票上,许磊就净赚了1400万元。此外,2007年上半年和2008年底,在同样拥有资产注入题材的华芳纺织和大东南两只个股上,许磊也曾大有斩获。

  上市公司三季报显示,这个表面身份只是南方航空广州总部一位空姐的许磊,目前在A股市场中仍重仓8只股票,分别为福建南纺、威华股份、贵绳股份、金飞达、山东威达、全柴动力、亚星化学和洪城股份,三季度以来,这些股票均取得了不错收益。

  事实上,在A股市场中,各种内幕消息每天都在漫天飘飞,只是真假难辨,总体来说,馅饼寥寥,陷阱多多。而对于最牛散户来说,则具有相当大的优势,暂不提上市公司会比较配合,偶尔会给“吃点小灶”,单是他们生活工作的圈子,真实的内幕消息也要比一般散户多得多。不过,需要指出的是,也并不是所有的消息都能形成行情,这还需要准确地抓住投资机会和踏准进出的节奏。

  郑雪英也是今年三季度因踏准内幕消息而大赚的最牛散户,7月1日以来,银河动力涨幅已超过了170%,这让三季度新进成为第一大自然人流通股东的郑雪英收获得盆满钵满。需要指出的是,她进驻该股的时机也相当恰当,大举介入之后,股价便大幅拉升,9月15日,该股因重大资产置换而停牌,一个月后复牌股价仍继续上涨。

  还有持有万方地产26.83万股的第十大流通股东江育仁,在第三季度突然出现在海王生物第六大流通股东之列,至今坐享超过100%的利润,有业内人士推断认为,也与其之前获悉该股即将爆炒的消息有关。

  三计:“笑里藏刀、上屋抽梯”

  方式:设立多个关联账户左右股价

  代表人物:金小红、刘芳、黄丽娟

  “最牛散户”在证券市场中已代表一个特殊的群体,他们不是机构,却有着堪比机构的雄厚资金;他们虽是散户,但操作思路和手法与一般小散截然不同。他们不只等待市场机会的眷顾,在平时的操盘中也会自己创造获利的良机,拉升套现、操纵股价是最常见的手法。

  其中最典型的代表就是曾在今年7月被深交所高调开出“限制令”的黄丽娟。其利用资金疯狂操纵股价,使得不少追涨的股民损失惨重。那么,她究竟是如何操纵股价的呢?今年6月22日,突如其来的涨停板让金路集团的很多“小散”措手不及,当日上午10时10分到10时30分,短短20分钟内,黄丽娟控制的账户对金路集团股票共挂出整整50笔总计3000万股的买单。从第一笔的5.33元,一路提高到第50笔的5.58元,反复的挂单和撤单,使得股价一路上扬,直到11时02分突然以5.58元的价格抛出80万股套现。一小时不到,黄丽娟便赚足20万元。

  据悉,黄丽娟曾用同样的方式还操纵过ST康达尔、*ST生物等多只股票。而与黄丽娟做过同样操纵事情的最牛散户也不在少数。可怜的追涨股民就这样成为他们“游戏市场”、“宰杀”的羔羊。

  事实上,黄丽娟的名字并没有出现在任何一只她操纵股票的前十大股东之中,因此有人认为,“黄丽娟”或许就是一张身份证而已,还有人怀疑,她就是黄木秀,与“地产巴菲特”黄木顺有着脱不了的关系。

  一人操作多个关联账户在中国股市中已不是秘密。上海一位不愿透露姓名的私募大鳄直言:“出现在股东名册中的个人投资者,没几个身份是真的。但你知道了又能怎样?只有法制健全,这些现象才会消失。”他告诉记者,设立多个关联账户的主要目的是为了躲避监管,便于操纵股价。

  而据记者了解,在较为“著名”的最牛散户中,存在关联账户的现象比比皆是,如刘芳、叶晶夫妇的账户归叶晶掌管;许磊的账户也归老公操作;黄木顺有郭淑玲等多个关联账户;而更为突出的是,金小红一家的账户都交给了丈夫“阿昌”……

  提到金小红,关注市场的投资者都不会陌生,她曾经现身于今年上半年的大牛股中兵光电的股东名单中,据报道,她是著名大户金顺法的女儿。不过,金小红父女账户的真正操盘者其实并不是二人,而是金小红的丈夫沈昌宇。在杭州当地,他有一个响亮外号叫“阿昌”。

  在上半年炒作中兵光电的过程中,金顺法账户遭到了证监会调查,并被公开处罚。从此,阿昌家族从A股中逐步淡出,转攻定向增发。而从最新披露的上市公司三季报上看,金小红开始重返江湖,在三季度牛股海通集团和海王生物的股东名册上,可见金小红独自进驻的身影。截至11月10日,海通集团三季度以来已经上涨了214.29%,而海王生物也上涨了116.7%。这两只个股的交易信息表明,都是明显的游资操纵股。

  值得一提的是,阿昌家族账户大本营正是东方证券杭州龙井路营业部,而该营业部屡屡现身于甲流概念股炒作的交易买卖双方中。因此,有业内人士预计,海王生物的疯涨不排除有阿昌参与炒作的嫌疑。

  四计:“孤注一掷、以逸待劳”

  方式:“押宝”重组预期强烈的T族股票

  代表人物:吴鸣霄、邹瀚枢

  相较于主动地操纵股价获利,吴鸣霄等“最牛散户”更喜欢稳定“潜伏”。

  截至目前,中国证券市场没有一家公司是真正意义上的退市。出于利益原因,从企业到当地政府,都将保壳当做是首要大事,就算保不了壳,也会兜售出去,挣上最后一票。因此,“潜伏”退市股的风险并没有想象得那么大。

  最牛散户吴鸣霄是典型的“ST狂人”,他的投资重点几乎全部集中于ST股。今年三季报显示,有9家上市公司的前十大流通股股东名单中出现了这个名字,而除航天机电之外,其余8家都是ST公司,分别为ST东海A、*ST夏新、*ST天方、*ST昌鱼、ST筑信、*ST北生、*ST厦华和*ST中房。和半年报相比,不难发现,这些股票无一不带有浓重的重组预期。

  据公开资料显示,吴鸣霄或为上海华鸣投资管理有限公司法人代表,是近年来资本市场极其活跃的人物,尤其擅长在拍卖市场低价“淘金”。此人先后参与了上海永久、幸福实业等上市公司早期的重组,获利匪浅。2007年至2008年间,吴鸣霄又因连续成功竞拍ST沪科和*ST北生而名噪一时。此后,赶在*ST厦华、*ST夏新暂停上市前,吴鸣霄大笔建仓此“厦门双雄”。截至9月30日,吴鸣霄手握ST股票总市值超过了3亿元。

  对于“潜伏”ST股的回报,业内人士算了这样一笔账。在一级市场上打新股,虽然首日上市价格高,但由于中签率偏低,普通投资者获利甚微。而就算大资金量者,一年取得30%的收益就很不错了;而对于二级市场的炒股,盈利就更不稳定了。但是,对于押注ST股暂停上市后博重组的年均收益,以三年为期、复牌涨300%计算,年收益可高达100%。因此,吴鸣霄的小算盘还是算得精着呢。

  另一位热衷T族股票的最牛散户当属邹瀚枢,据其此前的投资记录显示,他投资的重组概念股几乎无一失手。今年三季度,邹瀚枢大举杀入*ST琼花,9月21日,该股便披露了资产重组方案,公司将获注国信地产100%股权。此后,*ST琼花便开始无量涨停之旅,直至9月底,邹瀚枢无疑大赚了一笔。

  近日ST金瑞公布了增发方案,在新的股权登记名单中,三季报并没有现身的邹瀚枢却进入到前十大流通股东行列,也就是说,进入四季度后,他便大举买入85.13万股,按照ST金瑞11月13日11.72元的收盘价计算,盈利逾20万元。

  有业内人士认为,邹瀚枢应该不是一个人在战斗,从其拥有的资金规模和操作手法来看,其背后可能是一个智囊团或是一家颇有规模的私募基金。而据记者调查了解,他可能是深圳市元智创业投资管理有限公司的法人代表。

  五计:“反客为主、联吴抗曹”

  方式:联合买入同一题材

  代表人物:徐柏良

  如果说其他的最牛散户是做过调研后才放心一搏的话,那么徐柏良就可称为是运气好的“赌徒”。

  在中国股市,浙江股民徐柏良绝对算得上是二级市场的“牛人”。他打破了人们对冒尖散户的神秘猜测,用自己独特的方式,主动展示着徐氏的操盘手法。据悉,他手中握有至少上亿元资金,却从不调研上市公司,最大的爱好就是“赌热点”。

  事实也确实证明如此,据Wind数据显示,今年三季度,徐柏良坐拥11家上市公司的股票,分别为厦门信达、浪潮信息、新大陆、东信和平、远望谷、大唐电信、长电科技、海虹控股、熊猫烟花、广电电子、京能置业。这些股票中,绝大部分都是被炒翻天的物联网概念股。

  物联网概念是在今年9月开始盛行,而据记者查实,徐柏良也正是在今年9月中旬物联网炒作疯狂之时介入了长电科技、浪潮信息、远望谷、大唐电信等概念股票。不过,稍感欣慰的是,以现在的股价看来,物联网概念股的走势还是更进一步。徐柏良虽未有太大获利,但也不至于亏损,多少挽回了点“最牛散户”的面子。

  事实上,徐柏良已算是股市中的老手,但其炒股经历却颇有些散户操盘的“戏剧性”,去年,他一掷千金,以1.43亿元参与青岛双星定向增发,结果长期被套;今年6月1日,这部分股票解禁,眼看小赚,他便迫不及待地立即减持套现,谁知,随后轮胎股便轮番大涨,而他杀入的中国南车却一路下跌,这一连串的失算让他真是郁闷不已。

  到今年三季度,徐柏良呈现出有些“疯狂”状态。犹如豪赌一般,短短数月就分散进入了11只股票,而记者也发现,他并不是孤军奋战,曾与他如影随形的“炒股搭档”王素芳、叶玉莲仍紧紧地忠心跟随,厦门信达、新大陆、东信和平、广电电子等公司十大流通股东中均有王素芳的身影;叶玉莲则频频现身远望谷、东信和平、新大陆、厦门信达和海虹控股。

  联合作战有一个很大的好处,尤其对于一个热点板块来说,那就是“牵一发而动全身”,如在拉升物联网龙头股新大陆的过程中,其他的同概念个股自有散户追捧,从而形成广泛炒作的效应,即使在拉抬股价中有部分成本亏损,但那些被追涨起来的股票收益也足够弥补这一损失。



^O^

12 Dec 2009

张五常谈中国的经济制度

张五常谈中国的经济制度


采访者:上海《东方》早报“书评”栏目记者吴慧



这是冬天,张五常赤脚穿一双拖鞋,捧一只不锈钢茶杯,头发比从前更花白,永远保持着怒发冲冠的姿态——的确有怒要言,虽然刚刚出版了一本薄薄的《中国经济制度》。但张先生说读这本书不是一件容易的事情,需要很多时间、搭配很多思考,才有可能读得明白。美丽的张太常常嗔怪他说得太直白,但到底谁能真正读懂这一位年过七旬的老人呢?有关中国的经济制度,有关《新劳动法》,有关中国农民……他总说:“我是老人家了,没有工夫再做周旋。”



您将这本《中国的经济制度》作为学术生涯的终结,可以视为一种功成身退吧。

张五常:解通中国的经济制度是一个很困难的问题。我跟进中国发展三十年,才写出这本书。解释的过程是非常非常困难的。一开始能够解释得出来的时候,我就意识到这是很重要的。怎么能够解释得到呢?中国经济三十年发展那么快,当然是个奇迹。但中国的奇迹不是像有些经济学家说的——不是发生在上世纪八十年代那个时候,九十年代才是奇迹发生的年代。

任何国家,只要过去是吃大锅饭的,经济转为有了些私营的市场的性质,急速增长是很自然的事。改革前中国经济的发展水平相较现在可以说是近于零,从零这样的低水平上升个百分之几百,也算不了什么。1984年左右南中国的有些地方,每年有百分之五十的增长。那个时候,美国只有百分之三,香港是百分之六、七,而中国一些地区有百分之五十,不值得骄傲。从无到有,有了些小的变化,就上升得很快。你们太年轻,不知道以前的国家职工制度,做不做都是三十六块。广东一开始有合同工的时候,从三十六块钱一个月升到一百多块钱一个月,是很容易的事。

1980年代的增长,主要是权利界定这个问题的转变。那时候的中国,通过承包责任的合约,由等级界定权利的制度(也就是当年中国的干部按照资历级别的排列)逐步转型成资产界定权利的制度,这一点我认为是解释中国三十年来发展的重心所在。在1984、1985年的时候,我就大声疾呼:把所有权和使用权分离,所有权是不重要的。到了1986年,我在首钢做报告,说承包合约制要将所有权和使用权分离。当时很多人都批评我,事后听众还受到警告。但那时候我就知道这是没问题的,我已经从事了那么多年的研究,哪有那么容易错的。英雄所见略同,后来邓小平先生在1987年提出了这么个两权分离,是中国特色社会主义的基础。



1981年的时候您就说中国经济的大变革不可避免了。

张五常:我在1970年的时候就已提出两权分离这个问题来了,我当时不明白,为什么法律书籍这么重视所有权,因为私有产权不应该从所有权的角度来看待,中国的承包合约,原则上是可以把使用权与所有权分开的,承包合约可以是无限期的。我在1969年写的、1970年发表的文章说得很清楚,私有产权是不需要有私人所有权的,那个时候科斯也同意我的说法。

那种大锅饭的制度,是会引起租值消散的(编者注:租值消散指有价值的资源或财产,由于产权没有界定清楚,在竞争中出现价值下降或价值消失),这方面的理论我做得比任何人都要多。你要减少租值消散,那就要约束竞争。为了要约束竞争,改革前中国用论资排辈的等级来界定权利。那时行政分十级,每一个行业都有级别,连买一个鸡蛋都要讲级别。这种排列的原因就是要减低租值消散。

人的能力天生就是不平等的,怎么可能平等?!我一出生就有自己的天分,跟很多人都不一样;你这位小姐天生就漂亮,有的天生不漂亮;有的天生身材好,有的天生身材不好;有的念书看一次就考第一,有的怎么念都不行;有的人是运气好一点。但我们无从分辨运气的问题呀、本领的问题呀,你说李嘉诚是运气好,还是本领好?这很难说。想约束运气的话,就会伤到本领方面。上帝就是这样造人的,能力是不平等的。

在这样的大前提下的问题就是,如果在一个“无产”的社会中每个人要产权平等的“无产”,人享受到的权利(比如级别排列)一定要不平等才能找到社会的均衡。要么是产权平等,要么就是人权平等,随便你挑一样,不可能都要。改革前产权是平等的,那么用等级来界定权利就是必须的了。现在的中国是产权不平等,但改革前那种等级不平等消散了,你可以不喜欢,革命年代过来的老干部可能也不喜欢,但你不可能两样东西都平等。所以八十年代的转变,主要是由等级界定权利转到由资产界定权利,没有经过动荡实现这种转换是不容易的,承包责任合约的出现帮了大忙。



大的社会变革总会损害一些既得利益者的利益吧。

张五常:向资产界定权利的转变意味着收入的分配要重新洗牌,那些既得利益者是很难接受的。我曾经建议北京出钱买断之前的等级权利,当时北京方面的一些朋友也同意,可是很明显,这很难做得到。结果当时贪污就作为另一种补偿方式出现了。怎么买断那些人的既有利益呢?贪污是一种办法,是一种不明显的买断。1984、1985年贪污开始出现的时候,我很高兴,因为这是无可避免的过程,从等级界定权利转到由资产界定权利,难于登天,怎么过去啊?贪污一出现,说明正在过了。

但除此之外贪污对中国是没有利益的,有害无益。一些经济学家以为自己很厉害,说贪污对经济发展有利,换句话说,对真实世界不了解的经济学家太多了。你看看那些经济学论著,大部分都是废物;你看看现在美国金融危机的学者言论,大部分没有解释力。

1985年的时候,北京建议要把产品分类,进行分类管制,我大声疾呼:这是走向印度之路!你一从事分类管制,本来是要从等级来界定权利转到以资产界定权利,但中间还可以用管制来界定贪污的权利,那就是当时印度的制度、巴拿马的制度。譬如说你负责女人的皮包,那个人负责男人的皮包,另一个人负责外汇管制,各有各贪,这种制度是可以界定贪污权利,写在遗嘱中传给后代的。巴拿马海关的那些官员,你贪一三五,我贪二四六,这些都是界定的,我说一界定就要走上印度之路了,所以我当时大声疾呼。因为一旦走上印度之路,贪污制度就固定下来了,你就界定了贪污的权利,改革就会停顿了。还好最后分类管制没有施行。

中国经济能有今天的奇迹,是有很多好干部的。你说他们有贪污我承认,你说他们有不好的我也承认的,但大部份是好的。开玩笑!假如大部分人都胡作非为,哪有今天?





同样,没有九十年代的经济奇迹,也就没有今天。

张五常:八十年代中国经济的急速增长,就是权利界定转变的问题,排列权利的方法不同,并不是什么伟大的奇迹,是理所当然的。但到了九十年代,那就真的是奇迹了。1993年人民币崩溃,朱镕基执掌经济,中国经济从高通胀变成通缩,楼价跌了四分之三,上海的高价楼房,从二万五千块一平米,跌到七千块一平米;深圳也跌了百分之八十,高尔夫球场的会员证,没人要。破产之声到处都是。

就是那时,长江三角洲的经济开始直线上升,八年之间就超过了起步早十年的珠三角,这个才是奇迹。从2000年开始,几年之间,农民的收入爆炸性上升:从2001到2007年,农民的实质收入每年增长20%。所以我很反对、非常反对写中国农民的那两位(陈桂棣、春桃,《中国农民调查》,2004年1月,人民文学出版社),说农民怎么惨,我非常反对!有人说两极分化越来越严重。这些都是胡说八道,这些人完全不知道中国发生了什么事。贫富分化收窄得很快,农民增长每年百分之二十,城市增长百分之八,收入差距迟早要拉窄的。所以新《劳动合同法》一提出来,我就大发脾气,这么好的形势,却给了它一棍子,一亿劳工回去乡下,到现在很多就不肯出来,工业也闹民工荒了,为什么会引进这种东西呢?那么大的损失,谁负责得了呢?

回到九十年代的奇迹上去。在中国这么困难、有严重通缩的情况下,如果把产品质量上升也算进去的话,这个通缩是非常严重的,楼价跌得那么厉害,为什么会有爆炸性的增长呢?和现在一样,九十年代也是要保八的,怎么保八?一片叫救命的声音,中国能够保八,这就是奇迹。跟着农民有爆炸性的收入增长,这也是奇迹。工作年龄的农民,四个人里面有三个人离乡,都出来工作了。



怎样解释这样一个近乎于绝地反击的奇迹呢?

张五常:怎么解释?解释就是,中国县的竞争制度。这个制度从八十年代后期开始,到了1994年开始固定下来。这个县的竞争制度,就是经济的奇迹所在。经济的奇迹就是在邓小平南下以后,1992年的春天、1993开始发展,那个时候县的竞争制度开始形成,到了1994年,增值税开始全国统一化,百分之十七你们都知道的。但我的问题是:你发现这其中的制度了吗?我能够发现这个制度跟别的国家、别的地方不同,是很困难的,重点在什么地方呢?

我从1985年就开始跟进这种层层承包的转变了,国内的朋友对我很好,我要什么资料他们都给我,派了三个助手帮我研究,我要拿任何承包合同文件都没问题,他们知道我是学者。可是资料给我归给我,中国的转变你到底怎么看呢?天才也没有办法。也算是有天意,你去看看其他外国朋友的说法,一九六零年代后期,行内一些同事认为我是最好的制度经济学家、交易费用的专家了。诺斯、科斯、巴塞尔,他们都那么说,所以1982年回到香港的时候,我对制度方面的掌握,再加上国内的朋友帮我的忙:我要承包合同,一个电话就送到;我要去什么地方调查,马上送我去;他们送我去首钢,在宿舍住了几天;又送我去温州。现在有人批评说:“张教授的文章怎么不提我写的温州模式、不提我呢?”你让我怎么提啊,温州模式是我当年跟那里的朋友研讨的!我不是一个领功的人,我也不是一个改革者,我不认为自己可以改进世界,我只是关心中国而已。你问我呢,我就照实讲,我不会讲半句假话。我不一定对,但我自己不相信的,我不会说,除了应付喜欢欺负我的孙女儿,我从来没说过一句自己不相信的话,你接受就接受,不接受就不接受。

很多地区的干部朋友帮忙,很多商界的、企业的朋友帮忙,所以才能够解释这个制度。我解释得相当艰难,同时我认为自己解释得非常圆满的,看不到一个缺环,当然有些部分我不能写得太仔细。其实这等于是一篇长文章,整个问题其实应该用一本厚书来处理,但是我是老人家,过了七十岁怎么写厚书呢?所以只写了一篇文章。我对这篇文章很满意。



您提到,县的竞争制度就是中国经济的奇迹所在,乍一看县挺不太起眼的,平时大家都说北京上海。

张五常:我是在1997年发现这个重要性的,也就是地区竞争的问题。地区竞争全世界都有,但中国不同。写这本书的第一个重要原因,是我发现中国的地区竞争是不同的。这是一个很大的发现。为什么会有这样的征状?这是第一个重点。第二个重点就是,到了2003年,我才知道县是竞争的主角,才发现这个是通过承包合约的扩张,把八十年代开始用的承包责任制度,转到地区上面去用的。事实上,在试行于农业成功之后,承包责任制引入国有企业是失败的,之后通过层层承包引入到地区而不是个别企业是非常重要的成就。

这是很难发现的,假如我不是从1979年开始就跟进的话,想不到这一点。再加上增值税,其实就是佃农里面的分成,税其实就是租金,这也是很难看到的。最难的一点,就是这个百分之十七的增值税,全国都是一致的,怎么会有效率呢?这一点我想了八、九个月。我在书里面提到了马歇尔的一个注脚,就是因为有一天晚上我睡得半睡半醒,突然想到几十年前看到的这个注脚,马上把它找出来,才解通了。县政府可以通过低价或免费提供改进后的土地这样一种“负地价”来进行调整。

十年以后,县的竞争力可能会减弱了。昆山就是个例子,昆山现在基本上是没有空置的土地,发展再没有以前的弹性。这样政府要鼓励工业尽量往高科技发展,高科技发展了增值税就高了。搞土地使用改革不可能是永久的,总有一天会用光的。但你把土地搞好了,就解决了最大的难题。九十年代后期到2007年经济发展得非常快,就是用县际竞争的制度。土地的竞争使用改革还要再搞十年吧,而中国独有的县际竞争的制度要坚持很久。



2007年后呢,您最反对的新劳动法出来了。

张五常:我对劳动法的立场是对的,毫无疑问。我拿一百跟你一块钱赌,都肯定你会输。现在应该很多人都同意我的观点了。我对边际产出理论的研究,四十多年前发表的《佃农理论》写得很详尽。劳动法说的是合同,我怎么会不懂合同?我曾经有篇文章在美国法律界拿到最佳文章奖,写的就是合同。支持新劳动法的说法,一看就是乱七八糟。任何地方的干部都知道,所有的工厂都知道。我相信政府也已经知道了,但既然推出来了怎么办呢?



新劳动法的出台至少会帮助一些低收入者提高待遇吧。

张五常:我把研究精力集中放在穷人身上。中国最穷的农民有饭吃的话,其他的就不用担心了。但是政府不应该去补贴他们,他们不能依靠福利生活,因为不可能持久,中国人太多,金矿铁矿太少。澳洲可以派钱,人少,矿藏多。新西兰可以派钱,加拿大可以派钱,俄罗斯都可以派,但中国不可以。中国穷人的唯一出路,是要有一个制度能给他们每个人有自力更生的机会。

中国现在这个情况,不能靠福利经济养人,最低工资帮不了他们,反而会害了他们。穷人要想办法增加自力更生的机会,这是唯一的办法,没有别的办法。本来中国的发展是蛮好的,2000年到2007年,发展得非常好。2000年开始的时候,农民的收入只有两百块一个月,现在一千块左右,相当于城市收入的两千块,因为农民住房便宜,食品也便宜。假如农民人均收入可以增加到两三千块一个月,那形势就很好了,这一点应该不会太难。



您这么肯定农民的收入有了大的改进?

张五常:因为我曾经到贵州以及很多贫困的农村调查,工作年龄的人真的是走了四分之三。农民收入的上升,我怎么会不知道?工业、农业、商业,我都有自己查询站,这是我的历来的方法,不是看数据看报告。我不是说中国官方报告刻意不准,只是很难准确,流动人口这么多,怎么统计?所以你要出去跑,出去观察。农产品怎么样啊,价钱怎么变动啊,我都一直跟进。我每隔几个月就去问一问。我相信自己的调查。



怎样进一步提高农民收入呢?

张五常:关键是农产品价格一定要上去,农民的知识一定要提升。千万不要压低农产品价格。要提高农民收入,禁止农产品进口就可以了,但这是劣着。日本在七十年代中期,因为禁止农产品进口,西红柿零售价曾到过五美金一个。现在中国的农产品价格正常地上去了,还是便宜,应该再上去,但千万不要学日本。我有个果园,好几年了,都没办法打平手:荔枝批发出去是两块半一斤,你怎么做,成本都不止两块半一斤,又要杀虫,又要施肥,又要修剪,请人家去摘。卖两块半,怎么赚钱?前两年鱼的价格上升,因为政府收购,现在又不收了。前两年莲藕价格涨得很快,现在又跌下来了。你买青菜,三四块钱一斤,农民就开心了。你买鱼,十块八块一斤,农民也开心了。这样的价格大家都可以接受。我在1996年写过一篇文章《缺粮说》,那里面讲的推断,现在都中了。农产品的价格还要上升的,是好事。

可以这么说,等到中国最穷的农民都有不错的收入的时候,中国的经济改革就算圆满的成功了。



您反对中国搞福利经济,但现在这也算是全世界的潮流啊。

张五常:美国现在很好吗?德国的工人很好吗?法国现在很好吗?他们自己都搞得一塌糊涂,他们有工作吗?美国地大物博,人杰地灵,现在开始失业了,我们还去学他?美国的土地一片平坦,农田开几天车都还是农田。人家这么优越的条件,搞劳动法、福利制度、最低工资,现在都遇到问题了。

中国凭什么学美国,中国有什么?西部这么大,地高缺氧。新疆这么大,缺水。桂林风景是够漂亮了,这么多山,怎么耕田?都是靠石头石矿啦。但我们中国有一样东西,是美国和欧洲没有的,中国人多。还有一样,中国人聪明,吃得了苦,这些都很值钱的。

学人家外国那些干什么,人家那么好的条件,我们也学不来。我年轻时在那边念书,每个星期起码花一百个小时工作、读书。我儿子在美国做医生,每个星期工作八十到一百小时。为什么中国工人做工不能超过四十多个小时?我们有这么了不起,这么宝贝,这么矜贵?这些都是发神经。搞新劳动法的专家关心中国工人比我张五常关心自己儿子还要多,你相不相信?你相不相信,那些经济学家,关心中国的工人和农民,多过关心自己儿子?没有可能的事。都是假动作,我不能不发脾气。



包括对新劳动法的争论在内,近些年您的论敌的确有不少。

张五常:我不知道这些海归派在搞什么,中国近几年推出的不成功的经济政策,基本上都是来自这些海归派的凭空想象。他们对制度有什么认识,对中国有什么认识,我不知道。但我自己本人的确在中国发展问题上花了好多功夫,甚至受到很多人的批评,说张五常放弃学术了、不写英文文章了。我永远直面中国的情况,以前我是从中国的饥荒时代度过的,也受过苦。现在有个机会让我来解释中国的经济制度,我哪还有时间来写英文文章啊?现在行内对经济学的评价,要看发表多少英文文章来评分。我曾经在香港拿零分!我没话可说。这是谁发明的,中文不算学术?写英文才算?可惜那些大言炎炎的后起之秀,英文写不到家。

现在的确很多人说张五常放弃学术,连外国人都这么说。外国人这么说,是他们不知道实情;中国人自己也这么说,是看轻中国。像我写好的《经济解释》三卷本,多少人希望我能翻译成英文啊,科斯要帮忙把它翻译成英文。巴塞尔也说,为什么你不翻译啊?你写中文算是什么贡献啊?我说我当年学你们的西方经济学,我要学英文;你们现在想学经济学,就应该学中文。



外国人挺推崇中国模式的,您好象不太说这个词。

张五常:外国人懂什么中国,中国有什么中国模式啊?很多写中国文章的外国学者,什么都不知道,从政府那里拿来数据就堆砌一些东西出来,做一些回归分析,再不够的话加几条方程式,那些算什么学问?



^O^

缠中说禅:和去银行提款一样安全

教你炒股票6:本ID如何在五粮液、包钢权证上提款的!(2006-10-24 12:45:16) 分类:时政经济(缠中说禅经济学)




最近忙着和孔二爷闹,满博客都是孔二爷,前两天耍了一下鲁超女活跃一下气氛,今天想继续说说这“教你炒股票”系列。总不能整天都是孔二爷,也要照顾一下孔方兄,都是姓孔的,一碗水要端平。

股票上永远不缺英雄,更永远不缺死去的英雄,最近的英雄们都又在吹投资,但投资这内裤永远掩盖不了股票扒光后赤裸裸的投机。阴符云:“ 天性,人也;人心,机也;立天之道以定人也。天发杀机,斗转星移;地发杀机,龙蛇起陆;人发杀机,天地反覆;天人合发,万化定基。”不投这个机,又如何夺天地之造化?股票市场也是一样的。

对于本ID来说,这股票市场就如同提款机,时机到了,就去提款,时机不到,就让他搁在那。市场就如同男人,整天管他就会犯贱,就会咬你。所以男人不能经常搞,这市场也一样,必须耐心等待他的骚动,他不骚动,是不能搞的。本ID曾写帖子“G股是G点,大牛不用套!”,连G点都不明白,是没资格谈论股票的。

如同要找到男人的G点,就要对这男人充分了解,要找到这市场的G点,其道理是一样的。但就像光知道男人有G点还是不能乱搞,首先要了解他是干净的,是安全的,否则高潮还没有就翘了,那不麻烦大了?这市场也是一样的,不是什么机会、G点都要搞的,首先的前提要安全,要像去银行提款一样安全。就像又有G点又干净的男人才值得搞,市场上也只有这样又安全又能G点的机会,才值得投机。

就像四月份时本ID在五粮液、包钢认购权证上的布局。为什么选择他们而不是其他,道理很简单,因为他们既有认购又有认沽,而对于企业来说,除非行情特别不好,否则是不会让认沽兑现的,因为不兑现,这就是一个空头支票,而兑现是要掏真金白银的。因此对既有认购又有认沽的认购权证来说,认沽和认购的行权价之间的差价,就是认购权证最安全的底线。对于五粮液、包钢认购权证,这个底线就分别是1.02和0.43元。而本ID当时分别在1元多和4毛多吃他们,是不是和去银行提款一样安全?唯一遗憾的是,他们的盘子都太小,属于小男人的类型,容纳不了太大的资金。小男人,没什么劲;小盘的股票,也一样。

投机不是瞎搞,是要清清楚楚地搞。要清清楚楚,就要对市场充分地理解,要明白其道道。本ID曾发明了一个口号在私下流传,就是“像搞男人一样搞股票,像做爱一样做股票。”不明白这,没资格谈论股票。关于这个话题,今天就到这,有时间、有心情,继续。

(待续)


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刘岱:G包钢认购、认沽权证价值分析

http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockcomment/20060330/14442461462.shtml
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://finance.sina.com.cn 2006年03月30日 14:44 新浪财经

  刘岱

  2006年3月28日

  (特别说明:此稿件为银河证券研究中心供新浪独家使用,其他网站请勿擅自转载!) 

  根据2006 年 3 月 24 日《包头钢铁(集团)有限责任公司关于内蒙古包钢钢联股份有限公司人民币普通股股票之认购权证和认沽权证上市公告书》,做为股改对价的一部分,由包头钢铁(集团)有限责任公司发行的7.15亿份认购权证与7.15亿份认沽权证将于2006年3月31日在上海证券交易所上市交易。本文对两权证及其组合的价值进行了深入分析。

  一、包钢股份股改方案

  包钢股份2006年1月25日公布的股改方案中的对价为以下两种形式之一:1、如果包钢股份满足权证上市的条件,对价为每10股流通股获1股股份;每10股流通股获3份行权价为2.10元的欧式认购权证和3份行权价为2.30元的欧式认沽权证。2、如果包钢股份未能满足权证上市条件时,对价为每10股流通股获2.5股股份。

  2月10日公布的股改方案修订稿提高了对价支付,对价安排为以下两种形式之一:1、如果包钢股份满足权证上市的条件,对价为每10股流通股获1.6股股份;每10股流通股获4.5份行权价为2.00元的欧式认购权证和4.5份行权价为2.45元的欧式认沽权证。2、如果包钢股份未能满足权证上市条件,对价为每10股流通股支付3.3股股份。

  3月13日的《内蒙古包钢钢联股份有限公司关于确定股权分置改革对价形式的公告》披露,由于包钢股份已符合《上海证券交易所权证管理暂行办法》关于权证发行上市标的证券的条件,对价方案最终确定为:方案实施股权登记日登记在册的流通股股东每持有10股流通股将获得全体非流通股股东支付的1.6股股票对价和包钢集团支付的4.5份行权价为2.00元认购权证、4.5份行权价2.45元的认沽权证。

  二、包钢认购、认沽权证的基本要素

  (一)认购权证

  1、权证交易代码:580002;权证交易简称:包钢JTB1

  2、标的证券代码:600010;股权分置改革方案实施前,标的证券简称:包钢股份,股权分置改革方案实施后,标的证券简称: G包钢

  3、权证类别:备兑认购权证

  4、行权方式:欧式,仅可在权证存续期内最后5个交易日行权

  5、行权价:2.00元

  6、行权比例:1,即1 份认购权证可按行权价向包钢集团购买1股包钢股份A股股票

  7、结算方式:证券给付方式结算,即认购权证行权时包钢集团按行权价格向行权者收取现金并支付股份

  8、存续期间:自认购权证上市之日起12个月,为2006年3月31日起至2007年3月30日止

  9、行权日:2007年3月26日至2007年3月30日,共计5天

  10、上市总数:714,914,937份

  (二)认沽权证

  1、权证交易代码:580995,权证交易简称:包钢JTP1

  2、标的证券代码:600010;股权分置改革方案实施前,标的证券简称:包钢股份;股权分置改革方案实施后,标的证券简称:G包钢

  3、权证类别:备兑认沽权证

  4、行权方式:欧式,仅可在权证存续期内最后5个交易日行权

  5、行权价:2.45元

  6、行权比例:1,即1 份认沽权证可按行权价向包钢集团出售1 股包钢股份A股股票

  7、结算方式:证券给付方式结算,即认沽权证持有人行权时,将向包钢集团支付根据行权比例计算的包钢股份A股股票,并获得依行权价格计算的价款

  8、存续期间:自认沽权证上市之日起12个月,为2006年3月31日起至2007年3月30日止

  9、行权日:2007年3月26日至2007年3月30日,共计5天

  10、上市总数:714,914,937份

  三、包钢权证理论价值计算

  权证定价方法主要有三种,即BS模型法、二叉树法、蒙特卡罗模拟法。我们分别用这三种方法对包钢权证定价。

  (一)BS模型法

  BS模型所用的各参数值分别为:股票价格2.16元(3月28日股改实施复牌首日收盘价);波动率取2005年1月20日至2006年1月20日的历史波动率,为25.88%;无风险利率取一年期税后存款利率1.8%;存续期为1年;认购权证行权价为2.00元,认沽权证行权价为2.45元。根据BS模型,计算出认购权证理论价值为0.324元,认沽权证理论价值为0.378元。

  (二)二叉树法

  所需参数及取值同BS模型法。

  将权证的存续期分为60期,经计算得每期时长0.017年,每期上涨幅度(u)为1.034,下跌幅度(d)为0.967,上涨概率(p)为0.496,下跌概率(1-p)为0.504,最终求得包钢认购权证的理论价值为0.324元,认沽权证理论价值为0.378元,与BS模型计算结果一致。

  (三)蒙特卡罗模拟法

  股票价格、行权价格、无风险利率、波动率、权证的持续期(ΔT)等参数取值同BS模型。根据包钢股份2001年4月9日至2006年1月20日的日收盘价,计算出包钢股份年移动平均收益率为-6.12%。将权证的存续期分为60期,模拟1万次,可求得包钢认购权证理论价格为0.222元,认沽权证为0.486元.。

  因此,包钢认购权证的理论价值为0.222元——0.324元,认沽权证的理论价值为0. 378元——0.486元。

  四、敏感性分析

  1、正股价格敏感性

  理论上,认购权证的价值会随着正股价格的上升而上升,随着正股价格的下降而下降。认沽权证的价值会随着正股价格的上升而下降,随着正股价格的下降而上升。在包钢股份股票波动率(σ)为25.88%的情况下,通过BS模型计算,当股票价格从1.75元上涨到2.70元时,认购权证理论价格由0.103元上升到0.767元,而认沽权证价格由0.684元下降到0.141元。详见表1、图1。

  表1、价格敏感性表

正股价格
认购权证

理论价格
认沽权证

理论价格

1.75
0.103
0.684

1.80
0.122
0.641

1.85
0.144
0.600

1.90
0.168
0.560

1.95
0.194
0.522

2.00
0.222
0.485

2.05
0.252
0.450

2.10
0.284
0.416

2.15
0.317
0.384

2.20
0.352
0.354

2.25
0.389
0.326

2.30
0.427
0.299

2.35
0.466
0.274

2.40
0.506
0.251

2.45
0.547
0.229

2.50
0.590
0.208

2.55
0.633
0.190

2.60
0.677
0.172

2.65
0.722
0.156

2.70
0.767
0.141


  图1、价格敏感性图



  2、波动率敏感性

  对正股未来波动率的估计,直接影响到权证价值的大小,波动率与权证价格呈同向变化。前文给出的包钢股份股票预计波动率为25.88%,是根据历史数据估计的,并不一定准确。在包钢股份股票价格为2.16元的情况下,当波动率为20%,认购权证价格为0.280元,认沽权证为0.331元;当波动率为50%时,认购权证价格为0.512元,认沽权证为0.584元;当波动率为80%,认购权证价格为0.743元,认沽权证为0.839元。详见表2、图2。

  表2 波动率敏感性表

波动率
认购权证
理论价格
认沽权证
理论价格

20%
0.280
0.331

25%
0.318
0.371

30%
0.356
0.413

35%
0.395
0.455

40%
0.434
0.498

45%
0.473
0.541

50%
0.512
0.584

55%
0.551
0.627

60%
0.590
0.670

65%
0.629
0.713

70%
0.667
0.755

75%
0.705
0.797

80%
0.743
0.839

85%
0.781
0.880

90%
0.818
0.921

95%
0.854
0.962

100%
0.891
1.002


  图2 波动率敏感性图



  五、认购与认沽权证组合分析

  根据股权分置改革方案,包钢集团派发了同等数量的认购权证和认沽权证。目前,正股价格为2.16元,介于认购权证行权价2.00元和认沽权证行权价2.45元之间,因此,两权证均为价内权证。

  包钢认购与认沽权证组合的损益情况与单个权证有很大不同。一个认购权证与一个认沽权证的组合,将至少有0.45元的价值。因为在到期时,可以持认购权证以每股2元的价格向包钢集团购买一股包钢股价股票,再持认沽权证,将该股股票以2.45元卖给包钢集团。

  如果某投资者持有包钢认购权证的成本是0.4元/份,认沽权证的成本是0.5元/份,其一份认购权证与一份认沽权证组合的损益如图4所示。

  图4 权证组合损益图



  1、认购权证的损益

  在图4中,包钢认购权证的损益线由兰色线所示。到期时,若正股价格(S)高于行权价2.00元及认购权证成本0.4元之和,持有认购权证将获利,不考虑交易费用等,其获利值为S-2.00-0.4=S-2.4(元)。正股价格越高,获利越大。若正股价格(S)低于2.00元,持有权证的流通股东将不行权,其损失为持有成本0.4元。

  2、认沽权证的损益

  包钢认沽权证的损益线由粉色线所示。到期时,若正股价格(S)低于执行价2.45元与认沽权证成本0.5元之差,持有认沽权证将获利,收益为2.45-0.5-S=1.95-S,正股价格越低,获利越大。若正股价格高于行权价2.45元,权证将不行权,损失为持有成本0.5元。

  3、认购与认沽权证组合的损益

  持有一份认购权证与一份认沽权证的组合,其损益线由红色线所示。

  (1)当正股价格(S)在2.00元——2.45元之间时,认购与认沽权证均为价内权证,组合的损失为:认购权证成本+认沽权证成本-(认沽权证行权价-认购权证行权价)=0.4+0.5-(2.45-2.00)=0.45(元)。这是组合的最大损失,它小于认购权证与认沽权证的成本之和0.90元,因为组合本身有0.45元的价值;

  (2)当正股价格(S)大于2.90元(=认购权证行权价+认购权证成本+认沽权证成本=2.0+0.4+0.5)时,权证组合将获利,获利值为:S-2.90(元);

  (3)当正股价格(S)小于1.55元(=认沽证权行权价-认购权证成本-认沽权证成本=2.45-0.4-0.5)时,权证组合也将获利,获利值为:1.55-S(元);

  (4)当正股价格(S)在认沽权证行权价2.45元与2.90元之间时,组合将亏损,亏损值为:2.90-S(元);

  (5)当正股价格(S)在1.55元与认购权证行权价2.00元之间时,组合将亏损,亏损值为:S-1.55(元)。

  因此,正股价格位于2.00元——2.45元之间时,权证组合亏损最多;正股价格过高或过低,都能给权证组合带来更大收益。

  六、结论

  1、用不同的方法计算出的包钢认购权证的上市之初理论价值区间为0.222元——0.324元,认沽权证的理论价值区间为0. 378元——0.486元。

  2、在包钢股份股票价格为2.16元的情况下,当波动率为20%,认购权证价格为0.280元,认沽权证为0.331元;当波动率为50%时,认购权证价格为0.512元,认沽权证为0.584元;当波动率为80%,认购权证价格为0.743元,认沽权证为0.839元。

  3、当认购权证的成本0.4元、认沽权证的成本为0.5元时,若正股价格位于2.00元——2.45元之间,则认购与认沽权证均为价内证,其组合亏损最多,为0.45元,小于组合的成本0.9元;正股价格过高或过低,都能给权证组合带来更大收益。

  (作者系银河证券研究中心高级研究员)



!$!%!^%#$@$^$#@#@@#$^#&&*u
包钢认购权证(580002): 最低价钢权龙头主升狂飙在即2007年02月15日17:02 [我来说两句] [字号:大 中 小] 来源:搜狐证券
包钢认购权证(580002): 最低价钢权龙头主升狂飙在即


沪深大盘在申购资金回流的推动下再次火山爆发,两市股指均创出历史新高,其中上证指数距3000点已近在眼前,罕见的大牛行情正在呈现加速喷发态势。



中国股市历史上历次牛市的重要特征就是消灭5元以下的低价品种,而当前市场正在集中火力对3~5元品种进行风卷残云式抢盘,这一群体正面临最大的短线暴利机会。低价蓝筹股更面临重大参与机会,典型的如包钢股份,正成为新的稀土资源霸主,股价仅4元出头,在钢铁股普遍翻番暴涨下补涨空间巨大,将是增量资金集中扫盘的目标。而本栏建议更需引起关注的低价钢购权证,对于钢铁蓝筹炙手可热的抢夺将蔓延到钢购,将受到大资金疯狂阻击,连续调整的认购权证面临报复性反攻机会,操作上重点关注即将突破的580002包钢认购权证。牛市行情中认购权证盈利的放大效应使其倍受超级主力青睐。正股包钢股份整体上市将成为罕见的稀缺资源霸主。包钢认购权证作为两市定价最低的认购权证,股性异常活跃,有望再度掀起认购权证炒作狂潮,形态上580002包钢认购权证已形成完美突破形态,后市一旦得到量能配合有望加速井喷强劲爆发。


数家新基金发行工作得到通过充分显示出管理层对市场的呵护之意,这也将迅速扩充蓝筹股主多部队的实力,蓝筹股面临新一轮绝佳买入机会。而据内部资料透露,证券投资基金在2007年继续强烈看多、做多钢铁板块,钢铁股翻天覆地的价值再发现行情有望得到全新认识。钢铁板块成为当之无愧领涨龙头主要是由于钢铁行业基本面已经改观、三季度业绩超出市场预期,26家钢铁公司三季报主营业务同比增长21%;主营业务利润同比增长52.19%;净利润同比增长64.52%;平均每股收益为0.125元,同比增长83.33%。而其中的龙头公司业绩更是有大幅度的提升,如宝钢、鞍钢等。06年全年和今年钢铁行业业绩稳步提升是可以预期的。近期武钢率先提高了钢材出场价格,极有可能引发新一轮钢铁涨价浪潮。在这种利多背景下,规模性大资金蜂拥进场抢夺筹码,宝钢、鞍钢、武钢等均涨幅翻番,其他钢铁个股也纷纷活跃,成为绝对领涨板块,而前期滞涨的低价钢铁股目前仍处于大资金布局的第一阶段,后市钢铁板块的机会仍将层出不穷。


包钢认购行权价为1.94元,而正股现价4.24元,内在价值已经高达2.3元,认购权证现价仅2. 426元,溢价之低极为罕见,是最为安全的权证之一。权证板块中部分权证月底和年初将结束交易,这使得钢铁类认购权证数量大幅减少,稀缺性将吸引市场主力的持续追捧。关注包钢认购的另一个明显理由在于它是双蝶权证,即它同时具有认购和认沽两种权证。回顾历史可以发现双蝶权证特别受到大资金喜爱。武钢认购权证在未行权前出现暴涨,只所以表现得如此突出,原因就是武钢发行的权证是双蝶权证。大资金可以通过在认购、认沽和武钢正股之间反复买卖的方法进行波段套利。在武钢的双蝶权证退出舞台之后,大资金必将会把目光转向下一个能够进行无风险套利的双蝶权证,也就是包钢权证。


包钢公司已公布其整体上市方案,将定向增发30.32亿股收购包钢集团资产,从而实现包钢集团的整体上市,将成为第三家实现钢铁业务整体上市的钢铁公司。 此外包钢集团旗下拥有的白云鄂博铁及稀土共生矿将会并入上市公司,包钢股份将变身世界级的资源矿产大鳄,不但在钢铁业中将树立起绝对的资源优势,其丰富的矿藏更将为其带来滚滚财源。中国是稀有金属资源大国,稀土储量占全世界的80%,包头稀土储量则占全国总储量的90%,也就是说包头拥有全世界70%的稀土资源。包钢集团拥有的白云鄂博矿是世界瞩目的铁、稀土等多元素共生矿,稀土储量居世界第一位,铌储量居世界第二位,独特的资源优势将形成包钢以钢铁和稀土为主业的产业优势。整体上市完成后,未来的包钢股份除了在钢铁产业将树立远高于同行的资源优势外,单纯从资源股的角度来看,其地位并不亚于现在的资源龙头稀土高科、宝钛股份等品种,后市潜力无限。


认购权证在正股发力时的表现将更具震撼力。二级市场上,包钢认购在公布整体上市方案后底部启动,量能放大主力强力搜集,经过近期小阳线振荡缓步攀升后,包钢认购正在酝酿一波新的更具冲击力的上攻行情,建议重点关注。



作者声明:在本机构、本人所知情的范围内,本机构、本人以及财产上的利害关系人与所述文章内容没有利害关系。本版文章纯属个人观点,仅供参考,文责自负。读者据此入市,风险自担。



^O^

29 Nov 2009

Mariah Carey - Obsessed





I was like, why are you so obsessed with me?

So Oh Oh So Ohhh
Will the real MC please step to the mic?
MC- You need an MC, place to be
MC the MC

All up in the blogs
Say we met at the bar
When I don’t even know who you are
Say we up in your house
Sayin’ I’m up in your car
But you in LA and I’m out at Jermaine’s

I’m up in the A- you’re so so lame
And no on here even mentions your name
It must be the weed, it must be the E
Cuz you be poppin, hood, you get it poppin’

Ooh boy why you so obsessed with me?
Boy I want to know- lyin’ that you’re sexin me
When everybody knows it’s clear that you’re upset with me
Ohh finally found a girl that you couldn’t impress
Last man on the earth- still couldn’t get this

You’re delusional, you’re delusional
Boy you’re losing your mind
It’s confusin yo, you’re confused you know
Why you wasting your time?
Got you all fired up with your Napoleon complex
See right through you like you’re bathin’ in windex
[ Mariah Carey Lyrics are found on www.songlyrics.com ]

Ooh Ohh Ohh boy why you so obsessed with me?
And all the ladies sing, all the girls sing
Soo Oohhhh Soo Oohh Obsessed

You on your job, you hatin’ hard
Ain’t gon feed you, I'ma’ let you starve
Graspin’ for air I’m ventilation
You out of breath, hope you ain’t waitin
Tellin’ the world how much you miss me
But we never were so why you trippin’
You a mom and pop, I’m a corporation
I’m the press conference, you a conversation

Ooh boy why you so obsessed with me?
Boy I want to know- lyin’ that you’re sexin me
When everybody knows it’s clear that you’re upset with me
Ohh finally found a girl that you couldn’t impress
Last man on the earth- still couldn’t get this

You’re delusional, you’re delusional
Boy you’re losing your mind
It’s confusin yo, you’re confused you know
Why you wasting your time?
Got you all fired up with your Napoleon complex
See right through you like you’re bathin’ in windex

Ooh Ohh Ohh boy why you so obsessed with me?
And all the ladies sing, all the girls sing
Soo Oohhhh Soo Oohh Obsessed

^O^

张五常: 不要幻想经济学帮你赚钱-

加拿大 Yi 问:

身为一个经济学教授,您认为经济学对我们的生活有何帮助?


答Yi:


千万不要幻想经济学可以给你带来财富。我没有遇到一个大富人家是曾经研究经济的。学经济,对小康或多一点有助,但同样花那么多时间作学问投资,收入的回报经济学只是差强人意。从经济学中的利息理论变化出来的金融学,今天的打工收入最高。是教人投资的职业,很有点尴尬,因为那些职业金融专家自己的投资命中率,一般比不上我已故的不识字的母亲。听说风水先生是不能替自己看风水的。



我走的经济学的路只是解释世事,别无其它。是非常有趣的学问,对脑子的操练有大助焉。但我是幸运的,因为初出道时就有了终生雇用合约,没有被任何人强迫发表。一起笔就升到正教授,从来不需要为争取加薪而写文章。这样的经济学职业,七十年代起不复存在了。纯为解释世事而学问,可以满足自己的好奇心,收入不错,工作时间完全由自己决定,虽然要拼搏,往往苦不堪言,但整体来说自由自在,有不枉此生之感。



真的有解释力的经济学问,在市场值钱吗?大学之外很难说。不少公司曾经邀请我作董事,但那是看名头,不是看学问,一般推却。专栏文章可以卖点钱,但恐怕那是因为我的兴趣广泛,可以无所不谈,读者认为过瘾。



应该是很值钱的——应该富可敌国(一笑)——是我对经济制度运作的理解。是深入的理解,所到之处前无古人(一笑),但我要向谁收钱呢﹖不少朋友认为我对中国的经济改革有贡献(一笑),如果是真的话,那么在中国的经济增长中抽小半个佣,也富绝地球矣(最后一笑)。但一分钱也没有收过,天下能不为区区在下而同声一哭乎?



写到这里,悲从中来,不由得想到明人徐渭的一首诗:



「半生落魄已成翁,独立书斋啸晚风。笔底明珠无处卖,闲拋闲掷野藤中。」




^O^

21 Nov 2009

张五常: 闭关自守也无妨!

(2009.09.22)闭关自守也无妨!(2009-09-22 08:02:54)

标签:张五常 轮胎特保案 财经

分类:五常谈经济

去年奥巴马竞选总统提名时,说如果他获任总统,会杜绝中国的玩具进口美国。据说不安全是原因。后来他认说错,有歉意。(想深一层,美国本土的玩具工业早就移师中国及工资较低的国家,去如黄鹤,没有什么可以「保」的。)最近九月十一日美国宣布对中国轮胎征收惩罚性的进口税,三年加三次,每次加得厉害,得到奥巴马批准。奥氏之前,布殊执政时,美国的压力团体多次提出对中国货进口征收惩罚税,据说有六项通过有关当局,皆被布殊否决。



有一个严重问题。这次在惩罚中国轮胎进口的言论中,没有提到像玩具那样,被指有危险成分。中国制造的轮胎显然被认为是安全的,只是价格相宜,导致美国的轮胎工人失业,所以要惩而罚之。既不危险,也非倾销,只是价格过低。这样,将来反对中国制造品廉价进口的声浪会不绝于耳,奥巴马不容易厚此薄彼,轮胎的命运会成为保护主义卷土重来的先驱。不可能是美国消费者的选择。



重罚中国轮胎进口,美国还存在的轮胎制造商会得益,但没有谁会在那里兴建轮胎工厂。这是因为惩罚关税这回事,既可来,也可去,设厂造轮胎是蠢行为。其它发展中国家呢?大量产出轮胎,廉价输美,也会同样地遇到惩罚关税,所以也不会那样傻,见到自己的国家还没有被点名就赶着去设厂产出轮胎了。如此类推,明智的发展中国家的投资者,会选择不走廉价输出美国的路,转而谋求发展中国家之间的互相贸易,地球一体化会变为地球两体化。



上述是我持有的水晶球的看法,可能想象力过高,但逻辑是对的。中国可以报复(retaliate)吗?当然可以,而纵观今天中国持有的筹码,容易。我反对。曾经说过,无论外间怎样惩罚中国货进口,北京的朋友不要采取任何报复行动。协商不成,他们要惩罚,一笑置之是上策。何况今天遇上金融危机,此报复也,将会导致保护主义地球化,对中国半点好处也没有。是的,协商不成,北京的朋友要逆来顺受。尤其是,我认为中国的经济发展到今天,就是被迫要闭关自守,有得守,守得云开见月明。



我要从史密斯的《国富论》起笔的制针工厂说起,向北京的朋友解释一下简单的分析。史前辈的制针工厂,因为工人分工合作,每人的平均产量,比独自操作的产量高出数百倍。我曾经指出,因为专业而分工合作,其产量可以容易地上升逾万倍。这是史前辈指出的「国富」的主要原因。他跟着翻来覆去地指出,要鼓励专业分工产出,市场贸易不可或缺,因为没有市场无从专业。这就带来史前辈的一个重要格言:「专业产出的限度是由市场的广阔度决定的 (Specialization is limited by the extent of the market) 。」



这里我要用一些真实的数据来示范市场广阔度对生产成本的重要决定性。二○○一年为了写《供应的行为》的第三章──《生产的成本》,我要求一家印制商提供印制书籍的成本数字,由花千树的叶海旋核对,说明一分也不能错。是一本三十二开内文一百九十二页的平装书,以港币算,时间是二○○一年七月。众所周知,印制书籍是量愈大平均成本愈低。我获得的数据,印制五百本的平均成本是每本五十七元二毫九分,八千本的平均成本是七元五毫三分。资料显示,开头平均成本跌得急,到了八千本就跌得远为轻微。当时我算过,考虑到仓库的租金,无限量的不急销售,以香港而言,每次印制八千本最着数。



在香港要出书过瘾一下的君子们知道,因为市场小,要销售五百本不容易。二○○一年的市价,内文一百九十二页的书每本约四十五元,批发六折,是二十七元。没有算进编辑、设计费用,五百本的平均成本五十七元多,要过瘾不能不入肉伤身。要真的过瘾,二千本(印制成本平均约十七元)是起码的要求了。



市场销量够大是利用专业分工产出而减低成本的主要法门,也因为这法门的存在,基于私有产权的经济就可以夸夸其谈了。印制书籍是量愈大产出平均成本愈低的一个好例子,可能有点夸张,但我们不难想出更夸张的其它实例。权利有了清楚的界定(所谓私产)是市场运作的先决条件。这是科斯定律。但有私产,市场的销量不足,算你是绝顶天才也只能大叹倒霉了。



神州大地的人口比香港的高出二百倍。要出书过瘾一下吗?国内今天的书价比香港的大约低一半,成本也大约低一半,销售二千本当然远不及香港那么困难。书籍如是,其它产品也如是。外间多购中国货是扩大市场,有助,但自己既然有那么大的市场,他们要保护什么的,让他们保到够算了。不容易明白,美国在消费指数一蹶不振的今天,他们会推出保护主义。难道轮胎之价大幅提升,那里的市民会多购汽车吗?是湛深的学问,我不懂。



美国推出保护主义,对中国当然不利。但此不利也,在发展得有头有势的神州大地来说,因为本身的市场够大,用不着哭出来。报复还击,怎样算我也算不出对中国本身有好效果。中国的劳苦大众拼搏了那么多年,站稳了脚,让他们享受一下外间的名牌贵货不是很好吗?索性取消所有进口关税吧!是站起来表演一下真功夫的时候了。



我曾经指出,中国要大事发展的是内供,而不是内需。只要内供发展得好——主要是撤销所有约束内供的管制——内需的威力会随之而来。外需无疑有助,但今天看已经不是炎黄子孙的生存命脉了。一个人口不多的小国,要靠出口换饭吃,或靠开赌,或靠旅游,或靠碰中了些什么天然矿物。但中国不是小国,人口多而又吃得苦,市场大得惊人,而工业的确是发展起来了。人家要保护,中国在不利中可以稳守,而长此下去,最大的输家一定是推出保护的那一方,因为在保护中市民是买贵了货,资源的使用也被误导了。日本保护农产品的经验是灾难性的。



我感到惋惜的,是美国惩罚中国的轮胎进口,在过渡期间中国的轮胎制造商会受到损害。中国自动提升出口税会打上交叉,也会与目前的出口税制有冲突。自动约束出口量是配额制度,麻烦多多,纺织品的前车可不鉴乎?然而,轮胎出口配额会减少甚至弥补制造商的财政损失,而更重要是会大幅提升出口轮胎的质量。如果美国可以接受这配额而放弃惩罚税,对中国来说是比较上算的。我可以保证,如果惩罚税换作配额制,而商务部懂得容许配额以市价自由转让,中国产出的轮胎的质量会冠绝天下。这是价格理论的推断,其准确性与牛顿推断树上的苹果会掉到地上相若。




^O^

周小川:利率过低影响金融机构服务实体经济

周小川:利率过低影响金融机构服务实体经济


时间2009-11-20 10:57来源和讯


中国人民银行行长周小川11月20日参加2009全球CEO年会,并发表演讲,以下为演讲全文:

  周小川:各位与会代表大家好!受中国企业联合会和《商业周刊》邀请参加今天的CEO论坛。

  选一个什么题目给大家讲一讲,考虑了一下觉得还应该是金融界怎么为实体经济做好服务。金融危机以来,大家在对抗金融危机的政策制定过程中会观察到有不同的现象,有的地方财政当局和货币当局向金融体系注入了大量的资金,但是资金没有非常有效地来支持实体经济的发展。因此,大家可能比较担心就业和其他方面所产生的问题。

中国也是非常关心这件事情的,出现的情况稍微有些不一样,今年的信贷总额增长是非常快的,应该说有效地支持了实体经济的发展。如何能够进一步探讨这方面的制度和政策原因,我讲三点:

  第一,金融体系能否更好地为实体经济服务,一个关键因素是金融机构自己本身的健康性。

  金融机构如果在危机中自己生了重病,就会住医院治疗,修复自己的资产负债表,考虑怎么充实自己的资本金,怎么能够消化自己的有毒资产。在这种情况下,对实体经济支持的考虑就有可能受到影响,自己的能量也可能受到影响。因此首先要保持金融经济的健康性,有几个方面是最重要的。

  1、资本。金融危机的出现都是消耗资本的,资本没有了,根据健康性的标准和监管的标准都不能更好地为实体经济服务。

  2、有毒资产(不良资产)。不良资产在危机期间肯定会比较明显地上升,同时也在消耗资本。

  3、杠杆率,也就是融资的方式。在正常情况下和在危机的情况下,融资的条件是不一样的。

  像人一样,健康的问题都是有周期性变化的,很多人都是隔几年会生一次病,或者10年会生一场病,很难事先做到预防。中国有一个好处,亚洲金融危机期间我们的金融体系是受到了重挫的,有大量的信托投资公司、信用社、中小金融机构关门倒闭。大家都记得,当年比较出名的广国投的关闭,粤海的充足,在那个时间花了很大精力解决健康性问题。

  从商业银行的角度来看,不良资产正式宣布的数在亚洲金融危机期间是25%,已经非常高了,实际比这个数还高,因为当时还有标准的问题,比如贷款分类标准和会计标准的执行问题。我们有一个好处在亚洲金融风波刚刚开始恢复的时候,启动了一轮注资和股份化制改革,改善公司结构。这一轮改革之后我们遇到了这次全球金融危机,正好中国大型金融机构资本金是充足的。加上这几年经济发展比较好,从健康的角度来看是有能力继续向实体经济提供有效服务的,同时没有出现太大的拖后腿的现象。

  大家还要保持警惕,这一轮问题很好,这一轮情况好,并不意味着以后就安全了,就像人一样,以后还是会得病的,得病的原因之一有时是放松了警惕,对自己的健康考虑不周到,也容易生病。

  第二,有关央行的政策制定。

  对于金融社会来讲,要保持金融系统向实体经济提供服务的压力和动力。从压力情况来讲,一方面是竞争,竞争就会产生压力,除了竞争之外还也价格。这次危机过程中我们也观察到利率,特别是存款利率过低或者将近零利率有时就会减少金融机构向实体经济进行服务的压力。我们在危机最开始的时候发现有一些金融机构囤积现金,主要原因是因为解决区域杠杆化的问题,可能资金来源不可靠,别人不再提供或者不给他融资,尽管现金的成本可能是高的,但有很多金融机构有囤积现金的现象。

  之后宏观调控当局向金融市场投入了大量的流动性,还有囤积现金的现象,也就是手里有大量的流动性的资金,但与此同时也非常谨慎地向实体经济放贷和提供融资。里面有多种多样的原因,其中一个原因是负债方的利率太低,囤积也不会占用太多资源,不放出去压力也不大。针对中国我们也考虑到这样的现象,存款利率已经降到2%,再降下去究竟对金融体系是好还是不好。活期存款已经很低了,金融市场短期拆借利率也很低,但定期存款一年期还在2%左右。这当然也有好处,金融机构拿到了存款就一定要考虑用出去,因为要付2%给储户,这样就有压力,一定想办法把资金运用出去。这就使得金融机构能够看到为实体经济服务的时候得到收入、得到利润,能够充实自己,在利差方面还要保持一定的水平。特别是对于发展中国家来说,由于整个经济体系中产生不良资产的机会还是比较多的,有时市场还不成熟,银行体系需要有一定的利差,使得它为实体经济服务的时候自己也能够得到加强。

  这一点通过股份制改革、公司治理的改革得到了加强,商业性金融机构都有相当强的获取利润的动机。首先考虑股东利益,因为现在都是股份制的公司,要考虑为故都创造利润。其次考虑自己的持续性。因为随着资产不断增长,必须不断地补充自己的资本金,相当一部分来自于自己本身创造的利润。再次考虑在这样的过程中要增强拨备,对风险的应对。所有这些通过上一轮的改革都有助于他们持有强烈的利润方面的动力,这个动力也和利率政策的制定使得他们保持在这方面的动力有关系。考虑他们和实体经济之间的关系,把资金运用出去就会获得好处。

  相反来说,如果利差过小,国际上有一些金融机构,机构内部部门之间的关系会发生变化。可能大家觉得信贷赚钱太少没意思,还是交易部门赚钱,人也不多,结果交易部门膨胀的很厉害,信贷部门处于萎缩的状态。这就需要我们考虑在金融市场的结构上、政策上等各个方面如何保持金融部门向实体经济服务的压力和动力以及其中还有的价格机制。

  第三,这一轮中国克服金融危机一个重要的口号是扩大内需。

  扩大内需有什么特点,我们有鼓励小排量汽车的政策,有家电下乡的政策,各种各样的政策使得制造业能够不至于明显地下滑。可能大家还需要观察更多的内容。

  首先和我们之前遇到的困难时期不太一样,比如亚洲金融危机时期,很多人感觉到流动资金紧缺,这一轮中国的政府对危机的响应非常快,很快就发出了大量的流动资金,特别是商业票据,这样基本上缓解了在生产过程中流动资金的需求,也对中小企业比较有利。扩大内需必须有最终需求,最终需求无非是投资、最终消费、净出口。在这几项里,中国在最终消费上还是取得了很大的进展,但在投资方面必须小心,因为中国在某些方面已经有产能过剩的现象,特别是在一些常规的制造业中。基础设施投资中也有一些人在担心有些基础设施是非常必要的,但也有一些基础设施,比如某些公路,虽然从长远来看是有必要的,但投资太早会出现没有车流量的问题,也有类似于产能过剩的问题。所以我们必须在投资方面找到新的增长点。

  从今年前三季度的情况看,中国城镇化的过程产生了大量的投资需求,城镇化的过程是中国所特有的,中国有几亿农业劳动力,还要随着农业生产力的提高不断减少,会有更多人到城里,到城里就需要有住房、需要有公共设施,需要城镇改善环境,需要扩大城镇范围。因此就代理了城镇扩大城市内部基础设施的需求,城市内部公用设施的需求,城市社会事业包括医院、学校等等需求,相比较之下最大的还是住房的需求。今年中国克服金融危机的过程中,这个需求表现的比较明显,我们也在密切关注。

  一方面有它的必然性,另外一方面也有它的好处。必然性是中国处于城镇化的发展阶段,好处是这个投资是有实际需要的,不是太超前,是符合当前阶段发展的,不是浪费的,也不会导致产能过剩。但有有难处的地方,一部分城镇化的公用和社会设施方面不一定有充足的自身项目的效益,有一些是有效益的,但也是依靠了财政性的还款安排。我们需要在政策上、法律体系上按照有所改进,使得它得以顺利进展。现在有一些做法,比如各种形式的融资平台,我个人观察主要有两种方式,一种是以城市政府所拥有的土地做质押换来的融资能力,一种是不是项目本身自身的收费能力,用综合收费能力来保证支持项目的还款能力。一方面城镇化是当前一个正确的方向,也需要金融界给予支持,同时也带来了很多挑战,提出了很多新的问题,解决的不好也可能造成还款能力和不良资产等问题。希望大家能够探讨这些问题,以便我们能更好地做好克服经济危机以及后危机时期的工作。我特别希望各个行业不同的CEO对金融业的服务、对金融业的政策提出批评指正,以便我们改进工作。



^O^

17 Nov 2009

Warren Buffett & Bill Gates - Keeping America Great














CNBC TRANSCRIPT: Warren Buffett & Bill Gates - Keeping America Great
Posted By: Alex Crippen | Executive Producer
cnbc.com | 13 Nov 2009 | 12:09 AM ET
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33901003

This is the unofficial transcript of the CNBC Town Hall event Warren Buffett and Bill Gates: Keeping America Great, taped Thursday, November 12, 2009 at Columbia University in New York City.

It was prepared for CNBC by Realtime Subscription Services.

The transcript is also available for downloading as an Adobe Acrobat PDF document.

ANNOUNCER: The embodiment of the American dream, Warren Buffett and Bill Gates, self-made billionaires whose values run as deep as their wealth. One redefined an industry, the other the modern investor. But both put their stock in America, and by investing in business and humanity, reaped the rewards of this great country's capitalist tradition. Today that tradition is under siege, our way of life questioned. And with America at an inflection point, a future generation looks for guidance from the world's two greatest capitalists. Now, they are going back to school, not to learn, but to teach. Showing the next generation of business leaders that wealth is not about the money you amass, but the number of lives you enrich. Tonight in a CNBC town hall event, Warren Buffett and Bill Gates share their secrets to keeping America great.

BECKY QUICK: A special CNBC town hall. I am Becky Quick at Columbia Business School at Columbia University. Let's hear it, guys. [CHEERS AND APPLAUSE] We are in the heart of New York City. This is the world's center of capitalism and this is the place where dreams really do come true. In fact, right now, look at all these people here today. We could be surrounded -- [CHEERS AND APPLAUSE] -- We could be surrounded by the next Warren Buffett or Bill Gates. How about you? You ready to go?

STUDENT: We are so excited to all be here today. You wouldn't believe how much tickets are being sold for out front.

BECKY: I know you're not telling the truth. You had to get in with your I.D., right?

STUDENT: Yes, this is true.

BECKY: We're ready to go tonight. Tonight it is all about Keeping America Great. [CHEERS AND APPLAUSE]


No people have done that better than Warren Buffett and Bill Gates. Folks, let's please welcome Warren Buffett and Bill Gates. [CHEERS AND APPLAUSE]

I see Warren is trying to work the home crowd here with Columbia. [CHEERS AND APPLAUSE]

Gentlemen, thank you so much for joining us tonight. This has been, as you know, an extraordinary year. This is a year where the rules have been completely rewritten, where we have thrown out the rule books, and we have seen icons collapse. This is also a time when a lot of people have probably wondered about our way of life. People in this very room. That's going to be our focus in just a minute. Gentlemen, before we get to that, the two of you may seem like an odd pair. For anybody who doesn't know you two well --

BUFFETT: You'll think more odd when we get through. [LAUGHTER]

BECKY: What brings you two together tonight? Why you two and why here with these business students here at Columbia?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, we enjoy working together. Actually, when I left Columbia, they told me I would probably have to come back and repeat a few classes. So here I am.

BECKY: Bill, what about you? You are ready to go with the students?

BILL GATES: Yeah, it will be a lot of fun. Warren and I love getting the questions and talking about our optimism. [APPLAUSE]

BECKY: The reason you two are here tonight is this is a pivotal moment in history. People have questions about the economy, about our entire system of capitalism. And, gentlemen, let me ask each of you, over the course of the last year, was there ever a time that you had doubts about capitalism and about our way of life?

BUFFETT: No, there was not a time. If there had been, last September when we invested a lot of money, that was when the country was looking into the abyss. The money was flowing out of money market funds. The commercial paper market died and everything. We put $8 billion to work in just a matter of a few days then. So I never lost confidence in the system. This country works, you know. We've got 200 years of proof. And it's going to continue to work. [APPLAUSE]

BECKY: Bill, what do you think, Bill?

GATES: Well, we have a complex financial system which we have proven that we can make mistakes. But more fundamental than that is the innovation, the fact that you can create new companies, that people are willing to take risk and invest, that there's great science going on. This country still has the best universities, the best science, and we're going to tune our system of capitalism, you know. The idea that you have a lot of short-term loans covering long-term needs, the amount of leverage that was there, there are definitely some lessons. But the fundamentals of the system, a marketplace-driven system where we invest in education and a great infrastructure for the long-term, that's continued. And, you know, I'll bet there are some inventions that took place in that fall in the darkest hour: People were working on new drugs, new chips, new robots and things to make life better for everyone in the decades ahead. [APPLAUSE]

BECKY: All right. Tonight is all about the students and why don't we start out and get right to it. Why don't you start out. You ready to go?

QUESTION: We are honored to have you here at the university. [APPLAUSE] My question for you is directed to both of you, Mr. Gates and Mr. Buffett. I'd like to know your perspective on whether greed and immoral behavior, unethical behavior, were key causes of the recent financial crisis.


BUFFETT: You went out toward the end, Becky.

BECKY: Just wondering whether greed and corruption were behind what happened.

BUFFETT: It certainly played a part. We have always had greed. That didn't get invented in the last few years. And greed, fear in the third quarter -- I mean, the American people were really panicked there for a while. And it affected their -- it started out on Wall Street but then spilled over into the general economy subsequently. But we're never going to get rid of greed. We're never going to get rid of fear. What we do have is a system, as Bill said, a market system where we have the quality of opportunity and the rule of law combined to unleash human potential in this country over the last couple of hundred years to the degree nobody would have believed possible a few centuries before that. There's nothing that's gone wrong with that system. Our economy was sputtering and still is sputtering some. But we've got the greatest engine ever devised. And it's just beginning. Greed will continue. Don't worry about that. Oliver Stone is putting out a second film here pretty soon. Probably get mentioned again in this one with Gordon Gekko making a return. But that is not what drives the American system. What drives the American system is the quality of opportunity in a market system and the knowledge that when you get out of here, you're going to enjoy the fruits of the knowledge you have gained. And it will keep working. I'd love to trade places with any of you.

BECKY: Bill, do you have any extra thoughts on that?

GATES: Well, the best systems are ones where you have good short-term metrics, great accounting, looking at profits, looking at risk and willing to do things long-term. Investing in new research, letting people build new companies. I was a huge beneficiary of this country's unique willingness to take risk on a young person. And, you know, I got to hire people who were older. I got to sell to people who were older. And it was kind of a dream come true. And that kind of thing is -- other countries have seen it and they are trying to create that same dynamic. And that's good for the world. It's excellent that China and India will borrow our ideas about universities, about entrepreneurship, simplification of business. None of us want to borrow this extreme leverage that we got into. But in a sense, that's kind of a -- I don't want to say minor, but it doesn't speak to the heart of why things have worked so well.

BECKY: All right. Let's get to another question. How about right here?

QUESTION: Hello. My name is Accosia Bagima. I am from the Northern Virginia area and I'm a first-year student here at Columbia. And I want to thank, once again, both of you for coming. It's an honor. My question is directed toward Mr. Gates. Mr. Gates, I know you're not in the finance industry, but can you tell us what you were feeling when you first heard that Lehman was filing for bankruptcy?

GATES: I don't follow investment banks, you know, very closely. So it didn't strike me as fundamentally a terrible thing. In the technology business, the two companies I admired the most, Wang Industries and Digital Equipment, had both basically gone bankrupt. Digital actually got bought. And so the fact that there's these ups and downs, certain firms get knocked out, I didn't have any sentimentality over that particular firm. Now, this knock-on effect where other people had debts to them and those were going to be very hard to settle and that complexity might cause things to freeze up, that I called up Warren and I said, "Should I be worried?" And he said, "A little bit." [LAUGHTER]

BECKY: Warren, was it a mistake for the government to allow Lehman to go under?

BUFFETT: It may have been. But I would say overall, the officials in Washington did a terrific job of dealing with really what was an economic Pearl Harbor, as we talked about. So I would say that if Merrill hadn't been bought by the B of A, Merrill would have gone very quickly. And the dominoes were really lined up. And I don't think it was fully appreciated, perhaps, what a big domino Lehman was or how close it was to the next big dominoes. But overall, I give (former Treasury Secretary Henry) Paulson, I give (Federal Reserve Chairman Ben)Bernanke, I give (FDIC Chairman) Sheila Bair, I give (Treasury Secretary) Tim Geithner, I give them very high marks for the fact they took unprecedented action. [APPLAUSE]

BECKY: Let's get to another question. Right back here at the microphone. Go ahead.

QUESTION: I hope this works.

BECKY: It does. It sounds like it.

QUESTION: Hi, my name is Greg Letter. I grew up in Ohio and I'm also a current student, obviously. My question was with Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs, this relates to Mr. Buffett, you had the opportunity to invest. I was wondering how you chose to invest in Goldman Sachs and why you chose not to maybe invest in both, or what made you not decide to invest in Lehman Brothers.

BUFFETT: I had more confidence in both the numbers and the management of Goldman Sachs than any other major firm in Wall Street at that time. Now, there could have been things happened that would have made Goldman Sachs be next in line. (Goldman CEO) Roy Blankfein had said I worked 30 seconds behind Morgan Stanley. This is covered very well in the book called "Too Big To Fail" by Andrew Ross Sorken. But I did not think the system was going to go under. I felt Washington in the end would do the right thing. I thought if they did the right thing, Goldman Sachs was -- I thought it was the best-run operation. I thought its figures were the most solid and I thought they would prosper the most in the future ahead. Plus I liked the terms, too. [LAUGHTER]

BECKY: Warren, you said at that time they had the best management and a lot of other things. Did you change your mind since then?

BUFFETT: Pardon me?

BECKY: Have you changed your mind since then? You said at that time they had the best management.

BUFFETT: Goldman, my experience with Goldman goes back to when I met Sidney Weinberg in 1940. I followed the company a long time. They have a discipline around there that I think particularly in their marking to market and all of that, I think probably is the best among the firms in Wall Street. And I thought Roy Blankfein had a very strong appreciation of risk. Now, if the system went down, everybody gets hit. But I felt to a great extent they had factored the best people into the business. So they were my number one choice. I had a few other choices that were offered to me. [APPLAUSE]

BECKY: Let's get to another question, everybody. Another question.

QUESTION: It's a pleasure to be here with both of you today. My name is John Lemley. I'm originally from Scarsdale, New York. Given the severity of the economic downturn, which some attribute to systemic breakdown in risk allegation and underwriting standards, a fiercely partisan debate has ensued regarding the appropriate role of government. Can this role be positive and if so, how?

BECKY: What do you guys think about big government?

GATES: Well, there's clearly a role for the government in business cycles. And over time, that's been tuned, you know, mistakes have been made. Now, the question is -- and that's largely measured through inflation and interest rates. Now, there's a question of could there be a measure of risk that would cause them to step in and maybe tax transactions, make the bigger firms put more money aside. That is still really a question of whether you can recognize these situations and actually have government play a very positive role. Now, as things start to fall apart, we know there are ways that taking firms that are going down and handling those in a more expedited way -- there's a lot that can be done there. But the basic idea of, can you spot bubbles? Can the government spot bubbles? That's a great question. Some great economists have some ideas. But it is not a proven territory.

BUFFETT: Last September, only the government could have saved things. The whole world wanted to deleverage. And they were deleveraging under conditions of extreme haste and with guns to their head in some cases. And the only entity that could possibly leverage up at the same time that everybody else wanted to deleverage was the Federal government. And when 200 billion flowed out of money market funds in a couple of days, when commercial paper stopped, only the Federal government could act then. And fortunately we had the people there who recognized that and acted promptly. The government has a huge role. And now going forward, it's a very tricky thing to figure out how to prevent excessive leverage and prevent off-balance sheet arrangements from getting in trouble or for just having people at the top of major institutions that run risks they shouldn't be running. But we're wrestling with that right now. There should be more down side to the head of any institution that has to go to the federal government to be saved for reasons of the greater society. And so far, we have been better at carrots and sticks in rewarding CEOs at the top. But I think some more sticks are called for.

BECKY: All right. Let's get to another question. [APPLAUSE]

QUESTION: My name is Brian, first-year student here at Columbia. And I run a business school right now and seems to me a lot of the villains in the full credit crisis were business school graduates. To what extent do you guys think that business schools like Columbia were in some sense responsible for what transpired in the credit crisis?

GATES: Well, remember that capitalism has been massively successful, you know. Standard of life, medicine, all these great things have come out of it. And business schools play a role in training people to think about value, leadership. There's wonderful skills that are taught at great schools like this. And so the fact that, yes, we have had a crisis and we have dropped back, maybe we wasted two or three years net because of the things that were done wrong, that doesn't say that business schools aren't performing a great service, you know. The case studies of this crisis will be taught here for decades to come. And so at least we'll get that benefit out of the pain we went through. Leverage is a very dangerous thing. And perhaps, you know, Warren talked about derivatives as weapons of mass destruction. That wasn't much heeded. And yet at the end of the day, what happened here, particularly in the real estate sector, the notion of risk that price would drop down and what that meant systematically for those instruments, it wasn't well understood. And the mass destruction followed as predicted.

BECKY: Warren, can you teach ethics in a business school? Does it have to come from somewhere else?

BUFFETT: Come back now?

BECKY: Can you teach ethics at a business school?

BUFFETT: Well, I think the best place to learn ethics is in the home. I think most of us get our values from what we see around us before we get to business school. I think that it's important to emphasize them, but I think that if I had a choice of having great education and ethics fully on in the home or as a course in a school later on, I would choose the home. The wonderful thing about it is in this country, is you can succeed magnificently with ethics. It's not a hindrance. It's a help sometimes. It's a neutral sometimes. But it's not a hindrance at all. And to cut corners, you know, everybody here has a wonderful future. I mean, this is an economy you're going into that is so much -- [APPLAUSE] If you look back on the 19th Century, we had seven great bank panics. If you look back at the 20th Century, we had the Great Depression and world wars and flu epidemics. This country doesn't avoid problems. It just solves them. And in the next 100 years, our machine will sputter again, you know. Maybe 15 years will be so-so years, but there will be 85 great years. And during the 20th Century the Dow went from 66 to 11,400, so this is fertile soil that you're working in and there's no reasons to cut corners.

BECKY: All right. Let's get another question. [APPLAUSE]

QUESTION: Hi. My name is Katrina Gankena, and I was born in Russia. And I'm a second-year student at Columbia Business School. My question is for Mr. Gates. What industry do you think is going to produce the next Bill Gates? Because that's the industry I want to get a job in. [LAUGHTER] [APPLAUSE]

GATES: Industries do have different paces of innovation. So the IT industry, driven by the magic of software, the magic of the optic fiber, magic of the chip which doubles in power every couple of years, it's been the industry that has not only been the most exciting, it's also changed the rules for many other industries. The idea of information being available, what the online world is like, that's incredible. I'll tell you, there are a few other industries that will compete for being exciting in the decades ahead. The energy business, some approach will provide cheaper energy that's environmentally friendly. And there's a lot of science, a lot of business. That's a global thing. There will be some great careers there. Medicine, you know. We haven't solved Parkinson's or Alzheimer's or about 20 diseases of these poor countries, and yet we can be sure that we're on track to do that. And so those three industries I think you would do great in. There's many others, but those are the ones that have the strongest appeal to me.

BUFFETT: Find what turns you on. Find what you have a passion for. If somebody said to me when I was getting out of Columbia, you know, that Bill's business was going to be the one that would be exciting, you know, I don't think I'd have done so well. [LAUGHTER] But I knew what turned me on. I had a professor, Ben Graham, I offered to go to work for him for nothing. He said, "You're overpriced." Nonetheless, I went into the business. [APPLAUSE] I will guarantee, you will do well at whatever turns you on. There's no question about that. Don't let anybody else tell you what to do. You figure out what you are doing. [APPLAUSE]

BECKY: All right. We actually got the chance to poll these students. And we asked them if there would ever be a company as transformative as Microsoft in their lifetime. You might be surprised at their response. We will tell you right after this break.


BECKY: Welcome back to CNBC's town hall. We are with Bill Gates and Warren Buffett at the Columbia School of Business at Columbia University. We're in the heart of New York City. And before we went to that break, we asked one of our students -- one of our students actually asked, which industry is going to be producing the next Bill Gates. Now, as we mentioned, we got the chance to take a poll of the students in this room and we asked them if they thought they would ever see a company as transformative as Microsoft in their lifetimes again. Gentlemen, eight out of 10 said yes. That's 80% saying yes, they do think this will be another issue. You guys are a very enthusiastic bunch. Bill, do you share that sense of optimism?

GATES: Absolutely. Capitalism is great and having thousands of things going on in parallel. And a lot of them fail. Some are just mediocre. But the ones that are special can grow and, you know, stun everybody. And in all those fields I mentioned, there is going to be several companies that kind of take your breath away.

BECKY: All right. Let's get to another student question. [APPLAUSE]

QUESTION: Hi, my name is Lisa Williams. I'm from South Orange, New Jersey. I'm currently a first-year at the MBA program. Glad to have you both here. My question is actually for Mr. Buffett. There has been a lost of discussion around the true drivers with the recent deal with Burlington Northern . I was wondering if you could share with us your key motivation for wanting to increase exposure to the railroad sector at this time.

BUFFETT: You know, when I was six, I wanted a railroad set and my dad didn't get it. [APPLAUSE] You think about it. The railroads are tied to the future prosperity of this country. You can't move a railroad to China or India or anyplace else. We start out with the premise, and I can't think of a more sound premise, that there will be more people in this country, 10, 20, 30 years from now. They will be moving more and more goods back and forth to each other. And you have the most environmentally friendly and the most cost-efficient way of doing that on the railroads. The Burlington Northern last year moved -- on average it moved a ton of freight, 470 miles on one gallon of diesel. That is far, far more efficient than what takes place over the highways. You have the situation where overall they use 1/3 less fuel, they put far fewer pollutants into the atmosphere than trucks will. One train will supplant 280 trucks are so on the road. So the rails are in tune with the future. I like the West. I like the 30-some-thousand miles of roadway that Burlington has. And, you know, if this country has a poor future, the rails have a poor future. I'm willing to bet a lot of money, 34 billion to be specific -- [LAUGHTER] -- on the fact that 10 years from now, 20 years from now, 50 years from now, there will be more and more goods being moved by rail and better for the country and it will be better for the shareholders of the Burlington Northern.

BECKY: OK. [APPLAUSE] Another question.

QUESTION: Hi. My name is Josh Porter. I'm a first-year from North Reading, Massachusetts. It's an honor to have you both here. So we just went through the worst financial crisis of hopefully all of our lifetime. And I know it keeps a lot of Americans up at night, you know, worrying about their future. What, if anything, keeps either of you up at night?

BUFFETT: I try to live my life so nothing keeps me up at night. [APPLAUSE] I don't like to sound, you know, like a mortician during an epidemic or anything, but last fall was really quite exciting for me. [LAUGHTER] I don't wish it on anybody, but there were things being offered. There are opportunities for us to do things that didn't exist a year or two earlier. So I really don't -- I don't want to be in a position where I am leveraged or something of the sort that does keep me up at night. I did not worry about the ultimate survival of our economic system. We were messed up. Wasn't any question about that. But the plants haven't gone away. The cornfields haven't gone away. The talent of the American people hasn't gone away. The innovativeness of the next Bill Gates hasn't gone away. This country was going to do fine. I knew that. We just had to get things straightened out. And we're well on the way to having that happen.

BECKY: Bill, you mentioned -- [APPLAUSE] You mentioned before that you called Warren and he said, ‘Yeah, we should maybe be a little worried.’ Did you stay up late that night worrying about it?

GATES: No. The financial system, fortunately, good leadership has a lot of self-correction built into it. I think there are a few things that could surprise us that are negative. You know, big terrorist event sometime in the next 20 years, that would be a big negative. And a pandemic, which we're actually having in terms of the rate of spread of a new flu, one right now. And fortunately, its actual impact is very modest, way less than any such thing. So you have to keep your eye out for a few outliers like that. Those are the two that I would point to. But overwhelmingly, the rest of the system, you know, there is self-correction built into it. The long-term thing that I don't lose sleep over but I worry about is that we do have our education system, particularly the K through 12 part, not improving as much as we should. And it's an important system for opportunity, it's an important system for the economic strength of the country, and since it hasn't improved that much, that's a bit scary and needs a lot more attention.

BUFFETT: Becky, if you had a wonderful farm and you knew the next 50 years there would be five droughts but there would be 45 good years, I mean, you would not become paralyzed thinking about the five drought years. You would recognize that you've got a system that works very well over time, and that's our American economic system.

BECKY: Since we just had the drought year, does that make it less likely for the --

BUFFETT: No. If you study statistics at Columbia, you'd recognize that -- [APPLAUSE]


BECKY: OK. Let's get to another question. Right back here.

QUESTION: I'm Peter Lawrence, first-year student from Columbia. And, first of all, thank you both so much for coming here. Mr. Buffett, the recent runup in the market has been historic. And it seems that many people question the sustainability of the current price level. Do you think the rally is for real?

BUFFETT: What's going to happen tomorrow, huh? [APPLAUSE] Let me give you an illustration. I bought my first stock in 1942. I was 11. I had been dillydallying up until then. I got serious. [LAUGHTER] What do you think the best year for the market has been since 1942? Best calendar year from 1942 to the present time. Well, there's no reason for you to know the answer. The answer is 1954. In 1954, the Dow … dividends was up 50%. Now if you look at 1954, we were in a recession a good bit of that time. The recession started in July of '53. Unemployment peaked in September of '54. So until November of '54 you hadn't seen an uptick in the employment figure. And the unemployment figure more than doubled during that period. It was the best year there was for the market. So it's a terrible mistake to look at what's going on in the economy today and then decide whether to buy or sell stocks based on it. You should decide whether to buy or sell stocks based on how much you're getting for your money, long-term value you're getting for your money at any given time. And next week doesn't make any difference because next week, next week is going to be a week further away. And the important thing is to have the right long-term outlook, evaluate the businesses you are buying. And then a terrible market or a terrible economy is your friend. I don't care, in making a purchase of the Burlington Northern, I don't care whether next week, or next month or even next year there is a big revival in car loadings or any of that sort of thing. A period like this gives me a chance to do things. It's silly to wait. I wrote an article. If you wait until you see the robin, spring will be over.


BECKY: But at the same time -- [APPLAUSE] Warren, you have repeatedly said over the last year that investing in American areas is a bet on the future of America. But you have also invested overseas, companies like BYD. You both spent some time in China. Are there more opportunities overseas or right here in America?

BUFFETT: I see more opportunity in the United States. We're the biggest economy and we're looking for big deals. But I am delighted to find something, you know, whether it's in China or whether it's in Israel, like Iscar or whatever it may be. There are more opportunities in the United States than anyplace else.

BECKY: Bill, you agree with that?

GATES: Well, yes. The U.S. benefits as the globe benefits. You're not going to have a case where the rest of the world does poorly and the U.S. does well. Our fate is tied to open trade, innovation everywhere. You know, even the Burlington, some of the stuff that's on those railroads might come from other countries.

BUFFETT: I hope so.

GATES: It's exciting to see what's going on in China. It's great for us. If we had a choice for all the people in China to be as rich as we are versus be as poor as they were back in 1979, we'd be way better off to say, you know, let's have them be consumers and inventors just like we are. They are a long ways away from that. But they are a large enough population that great things are happening there. And, you know, many countries that we thought of as basket cases and we sent lots of aid to, like Brazil or Mexico or Thailand, are now big contributors. So it's good for the world that it's not as dependent just on the U.S. But the U.S. is where the energy revolution is likely to happen, the IT revolution will continue. We are expected to lead the way.

BECKY: All right. We're going to be back with another question in just a moment. [APPLAUSE] And by the way, if you have the chance, how would you like to have Warren Buffett or Bill Gates as your career counselor? Well, we're going to have that when we come right back. [APPLAUSE]


BECKY: Welcome back, everybody. We have more questions for Bill Gates and Warren Buffett. And we are running through them, but let's keep them going. Got a question right over here.

QUESTION: My name is Erica Braley and I am a second-year student. My question is for Mr. Gates. What is the most important thing you do every day?

GATES: Hmmm. [LAUGHTER] [APPLAUSE] Well, I do a lot of variety. I think reading a lot, you know, and continuing to learn. I'm in a lot of new areas in the Foundation, education, health. And I love reading a lot. So I think, you know, arming myself with that knowledge and sitting down with people who live the topic and brainstorming with them, that's what helps me back the right people and make sure I know what's going on. So I guess I'd say learning is what is the key thing. [LAUGHTER] [APPLAUSE]

BECKY: What was that? Let's get to another question.

QUESTION: Mr. Buffett, Mr. Gates, thank you for being here today. My name is Justin Heyman, I'm a second-year MBA, as I get ready to graduate, I was wondering, what's the one thing that your MBA didn't prepare you for when you got out into the real world?

BUFFETT: Well, I was -- it prepared me very well, not the whole degree, but specific professors prepared me very well for what I wanted to go into. I knew I was interested in investing, like I say, from the time I was six or seven years of age. So I was lucky that I found what turned me on early on. And I had these two marvelous professors here at Columbia that just being around -- I had read all the stuff they had written. So it wasn't I was acquiring lots of incremental knowledge but I was getting inspired. They were terrific for me. They treated me like a son. They would take me out to dinner. Ben Graham did the same thing for me. So it gave me confidence in myself. It just propelled me into a field I already love with a terrific tailwind from these professors that believed in me. [APPLAUSE] But let me add one point because -- to the MBA situation. Right now, I would pay $100,000 for 10% of the future earnings of any of you. So anybody that wants to see me after this is over -- [LAUGHTER] [APPLAUSE] If that's true, you are a million-dollar asset right now, right, if 10% of you is worth 100,000? You could improve -- many of you, and I certainly could have when I got out, just in terms of learning communication skills. You know, it's not something that is taught. I actually went to a Dale Carnegie course later on in terms of public speaking. But if you improve your value 50% by having better communication skills, that's another $500,000 in terms of capital value. See me after the class and I'll pay you 150-thousand. [APPLAUSE]

BECKY: Warren, you bring up your time here. I don't know if you can see the monitors back here, but we did take a look at your yearbook and steal your picture from 1951 year.

BUFFETT: Uh-oh.


QUICK: I think we have a picture in the back. There you are. [APPLAUSE]

BUFFETT: I don't think I'd pay $100,000 for 10% of that guy. [LAUGHTER]

BECKY: Another question right here.

BUFFETT: Hi. My name is Oleg Cheesh. I'm a second-year MBA student here. My question is for Mr. Gates. You obviously worked very hard to get to where you are. Could you reflect on what role pure luck played in your success?

GATES: Well, I was lucky in many ways. I was lucky to be born with certain skills. I was lucky to have parents that created an environment where they shared what they were working on and let me buy as many books as I wanted to. And I was lucky in terms of the timing. The invention of the microprocessor was something profound. And it turned out only if you were kind of young and looking at that could you appreciate what it meant. And then I had been obsessed with writing software. It turned out that was the key missing thing that would allow the microprocessor to have this incredible impact. So in timing and skill set, in some of the people I was lucky enough to meet, you know, meeting Warren and talking to him, learning from him, it is unusual to have so much luck in one life, I think. But it's been a major factor in what I have been able to do.

BECKY: All right. Another question right here.

QUESTION: Hello, my name is Ugin Quinn, I'm from Deerfield, Illinois. And I'm a first-year student at Columbia Business School. I'd like to direct my question to both Mr. Buffett and Mr. Gates. In the context of both your professional relationship and unique friendship, what do you admire most about each other?

BECKY: OK. Who wants to take that one first? [LAUGHTER]

BUFFETT: My athletic ability. Say that. [APPLAUSE] Well, I would say what I really most admire about Bill is the view he has about what he should do with the wealth he's accumulated. I mean, as he said, he was very lucky. He was born in the right country, at the right time, with the right wiring and all of that sort of thing. In the end, he knows he's a beneficiary of a terrific society, and not everybody gets the long straws like he and I did. So he is -- and he has this view that every human life worldwide is the equivalent of every other human life, and he's backing it up not only with money, but backing it up with his time. And his wife, Melinda, is backing it up with her time. And they are really going to spend, you know, the last half of their lives or so using both money, talent, energy, imagination, all improving the lives of 6.5 billion people around the world. That's what I admire the most. [APPLAUSE]

BECKY: Bill.

GATES: With Warren, there are a lot of things you could pick, you know, his integrity as an example for the world. His sense of humor. But I think I'd pick his desire to teach, his desire to teach things that are complex and put them in a simple form so that people can understand and get the benefit of all his experience, all his models of how the world works. He loves to teach. And he does it meeting with students. He does it in his annual newsletter. He does it when he's talking to me on the phone. It's a real gift that I admire incredibly. [APPLAUSE]


BECKY: Let's take another question right here.

QUESTION: Mr. Buffett, Mr. Gates, thank you for being here tonight. I am Ibrahim Dolly, first year here at Columbia. I came from Portugal. I have a question for both of you. You both knew early in your careers what you wanted to do in your life. What advice do you have for those of us who are a little bit unclear?

GATES: Well, finding the thing that you are passionate about and that you are good at can sometimes take a period of years. I think Warren and I were lucky we kind of ran into it. I wasn't even sure it was software. I was kind of obsessed with it but then it wasn't clear it could be a career. When that happened, it was great. I think most other people get into their 20s and have to try out some different experiences. And some things will expose you to a lot of different businesses, a lot of different work opportunities. And I think you can make your first few jobs optimized for getting that exposure. And then when you want it, see the thing that you want to be fanatical about and just jump on to that.

BECKY: All right.

BUFFETT: First of all, I'd say marry the right person. [LAUGHTER] And I'm serious about that. [APPLAUSE] It will make more difference in your life. It will change your aspiration, all kind of things. It's enormously important who you marry. Beyond that, I would say that do what you would do if you were in my position, where the money means nothing to you. At 79, ... I work every day. And it's what I want to do more than anything else in the world. The closer you can come to that early on in your life, you know the more fun you're going to have in life and really the better you're going to do. So don't be driven where you think the last dollar is presently or anything of that sort. And then also go to work, if possible, for an organization or an individual that you admire. I mean I offered to go to work for Ben Graham because there was nobody I admired more in the business than him. I didn't care what he paid me. When he finally did hire me in 1954, I moved from Omaha to New York and I didn't know what I was getting paid until I got my first paycheck. But I knew I wanted to work for Ben Graham. And I knew I would jump out of bed every morning and be excited about what I would do and I would go home at night smarter than I was in the morning. Go to work at a job that turns you on and a person that turns you on and institution. [APPLAUSE]

BECKY: Stay right here. We will be right back.


BECKY: All right. Class continues, everybody. We are back with the two greatest capitalists out there with Investing 101, back to more students’ questions. Why don't we start right here?

QUESTION: My name is Adam Van Dam and I'm a first-year student here. This question is for Mr. Buffett. If the Burlington Northern acquisition is any indication of your long-term buy and hold forever investment philosophy, I am wondering if the financial crisis has impacted that philosophy or your investment process in any way?

BUFFETT: No. It hasn't changed at all. We like products like this. How is this for shameless products? [APPLAUSE] This started in 1886. It's gone through all of these events. And the end will be 1.6 billion eight-ounce servings of Coca-Cola products come today and there will be more next year. We want to be in business with a durable competitive advantage with managements we like and trust and do them at a price we like. It hasn't changed a 1/10 of a degree. Incidentally, we own Fruit of the Loom, too, but I'm not going to do a product. [APPLAUSE]

BECKY: OK. Our next question right here.

QUESTION: Hi, I'm Brian Seedabalker. I'm a second-year student. Mr. Buffett, it's great to see you again. I was on the trip to Omaha last month. Thank you for hosting us. My question is, how would you recommend an individual investor who follows the Graham and Dodd philosophy to allocate their capital today?

BUFFETT: Well, it depends whether they are going to be an active investor. Graham distinguished between the defensive and the enterprising and that. So if you are going to spend a lot of time on investment, you know I just advise looking at as many things as possible and you will find some bargains. And when you find them, you have to act. It doesn't -- it hasn't changed at all since I was here in 1950, 1951. And it won't change the rest of my life. You start turning pages. When I got out of school, I turned every page in Moody's 10,000-some pages twice, looking for companies. And you have to find them yourself. The world isn't going to tell you about great deals. You have to find them yourself. And that takes a fair amount of time. So if you are not going to do that, if you are just going to be a passive investor, then I just advise an index fund more consistently over a long period of time. The one thing I will tell you is the worst investment you can have is cash. Everybody is talking about cash being king and all that sort of thing. Most of you don't look like you are overburdened with cash anyway. [LAUGHTER] Cash is going to become worth less over time. But good businesses are going to become worth more over time. And you don't want to pay too much for them so you have to have some discipline about what you pay. But the thing to do is find a good business and stick with it.

BECKY: Does that mean you think we are through the roughest times? You had always kept the cash word around, too.

BUFFETT: We always keep enough cash around so I feel very comfortable and don't worry about sleeping at night. But it's not because I like cash as an investment. Cash is a bad investment over time. But you always want to have enough so that nobody else can determine your future essentially. The worst -- the financial panic is behind us. The economic spillout which came to some extent from that financial panic is still with us. It will end. I don't know if it will end tomorrow or next week or next month. Or maybe a year. But it won't go on forever. And to sit around and try and pick the bottom, people were trying to do that last March and the bottom hadn't come in unemployment and the bottom hadn't come in business but the bottom had come in stocks. Don't pass up something that's attractive today because you think you will find something way more attractive tomorrow.


BECKY: Another question right here.

QUESTION: Mr. Buffett and Mr. Gates, my name is Antionette Genevieve. I am a first-year executive MBA student. And I actually work at Goldman Sachs, so thank you for your investment. [APPLAUSE]


BUFFETT: Why aren't you at work? [LAUGHTER] [APPLAUSE]

QUESTION: My question to you is I'd like both of your thoughts on the investment of alternative energy as for developing our economy and getting it back on track.

BECKY: Bill, you touched on this earlier.

BILL: Well, there are many, many ideas. And there's enough that we can say most of them will turn out to be dead ends. You know, the solar-thermal, solar-electric, nuclear is going to go through some of the revival and see if it can solve some of its cost challenges. As a country, we want to make sure all of those get lots of R&D and regulatory enablement because one of them is going to give us much cheaper power without causing any problem. We don't know which one it is. And we don't have quite as much R&D going into those things as I'd like to see. We have quite a bit, but I think the government policies could drive for more. But it is one of these areas that is somewhat faddish in nature. When you have a lot of energy focusing on a field, the amount of money that goes in is very large. And the overall return on capital is often quite large. The car industry in its heyday was a disaster. The airline industry, even the software industry because people don't remember all the non-Microsofts that don't exist until today. When something is hot, you get kind of a bubble. So energy, you're going to have to be a bit careful to make sure it's one that's really got its cost structure in line and it's not just being pushed along by subsidies and there will be scientific surprises. So a very hot area, but not necessarily a good area for investment.

BECKY: All right. Why don't we leave it there for now? When we come back, we will have more with Bill Gates and Warren Buffett. [APPLAUSE] We'll be talking about leadership and President Obama right after this break. [APPLAUSE]



BECKY: All right. Welcome back, everybody. We are at Columbia University. And right now we're going straight to the top of Columbia Business School. We are joined by Dean Hubbard. [CHEERS AND APPLAUSE] Glenn Hubbard, by the way, is not only the head of the Business School here, he also happened to serve at the White House where he was chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors. So this is a man who knows not only about what's happening in the economy, but also what's happening with these students. You talk to them all the time. What's the question that you'd like to pose to Mr. Gates and Mr. Buffett?

HUBBARD: Thanks, Becky, and thanks to both of you for being here today. And, Warren, welcome home.

BUFFETT: Thank you. [APPLAUSE]

HUBBARD: Warren, one thing you said years ago that's always stuck with me is you never know who is swimming naked until the tide goes out. And that, of course, says maybe there's some value in knowing when it's going to be low tide. It also says there's value in knowing context. How do we develop -- how do we encourage business leaders who understand context and connect the dots?

BUFFETT: Well, I think they have learned a lot about that in the last year. Some never learn, you know. At Berkshire, we have actually 70-some managers. I think most of them are a fair amount smarter than they were 15 months ago but they were plenty smart to go in. But, you know, I think that what I learned from a Ben Graham, who came up here every Thursday afternoon. He didn't need to do it, you know. He donated whatever he got paid back to the school and all of that. But having sound principles takes you through everything. And the bedrock principles that really I learned from Graham and Dodd, I haven't had to do anything with them. They take me through good periods. They take me through bad periods. In the end, I don't worry about them because I know they work.


BECKY: Bill, what do you think is the most important character for a business leader to have?

GATES: Well, it's surprising that the fundamentals of business are pretty straightforward, you know. You try to take more in income than you spend in cost. That's a pretty straightforward subtraction. But it's surprising in terms of projecting out into the years ahead that, you know, are we making the right investments, are we gaining on the competition, are we making it a little bit harder for people to replace what we're doing? That kind of common sense, I guess you've got to develop it through experience. And I think it's neat if you are young and you can see that in a small scale and be hands on with it because a lot of people who start with large businesses may have a hard time with it. So, you know, the basics are pretty straightforward. Learning how it works and doesn't work in a variety of industries, by reading a lot, I think that's something that comes with time and a business school is an intense period where you can get ahead of the game.

BUFFETT: I send one message out every year and a half or two years. They get one letter from me every couple of years. And basically it says, run this business like it's the only business that your family can own for the next 100 years. You can't sell it. But every year don't measure it by the earnings in the quarter that year. Measure it by whether the moat around that business, what gives it competitive advantage over time has widened or narrowed. If you keep doing that for 100 years, it's going to work out very well. Then I tell them basically if the reason for doing something is everybody else is doing it, it's not good enough. If you have to use that as a reason, forget it. You don't have a good reason for doing something. Never use that.


BECKY: Let's get to some student questions. [APPLAUSE]

QUESTION: Mr. Buffett, Mr. Gates, it is absolutely fantastic having you here. Thanks a lot. My name is Kata Cafunka. I am a second-year MBA student here at Columbia. Actually, my question is really related to what you were asking. Many of us and many people in general aspire to become somebody like you. But actually only a few people got that height, right? So what do you think were the major qualities that you have that distinguish you from the majority?

BECKY: All right. Bill, Warren, what makes you stand out from the crowd?

BUFFETT: It's always interesting when Bill and I appear together, they don't figure they can do what Bill does, but they know they can do what I do. [LAUGHTER] [APPLAUSE] We did both have a passion. We were doing what we did because we loved it. We weren't doing it to get rich. We probably felt if we did it well, we would get rich. But we'd have done it, you know, if somebody was slipping bread in under the door, you know, to keep us going. And so I think that passion for it is enormously important. I was lucky enough to have a couple of great teachers, particularly one great teacher. I had a great teacher in life in my father. But I had another great teacher in terms of profession in terms of Ben Graham. I was lucky enough to get the right foundation very early on. And then basically I didn't listen to anybody else. I just look in the mirror every morning and the mirror always agrees with me. And I go out and do what I believe I should be doing. And I'm not influenced by what other people think.

BECKY: All right. We'll get to Bill's answer on this in just a minute. [APPLAUSE] Bill Gates and Warren Buffett right after this break.


BECKY: All right. Welcome back, everybody. Welcome back to class. We have left that last break waiting for an answer from Bill Gates. Bill, if you had to pick one thing that makes you stand out from everyone else, what would that be?

GATES: Well, we talked about some of the basics, having great people around you, reading a lot, thinking long-term. I also think, though, there become a few magic moments where you have to have confidence in yourself. You know, Warren when he set off on his own, he could have gone and taken a job as an analyst somewhere. But he knew that he had the skill, that he was going to raise money and have his own partnership. When I dropped out of Harvard and said to my friends, ‘Come work for me,’ there was a certain kind of brass self-confidence in that. You have a few moments like that where trusting yourself and saying yes, this can come together -- you have to seize on those because not many come along.

BECKY: All right. Great advice. Believe in yourself. Guys, we're going to try and go into a cram session and get in some answers pretty rapid fire. Let's get right back here. We have a question.

QUESTION: My name is Nikki Shelton from Roseville, New York. I'm a second-year student here at the school. First, I just want to thank you guys for being great philanthropists. You guys have done a great job in the world. [APPLAUSE] And my question is for Mr. Buffett. You recently made a huge contribution to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. If you can talk to us a little bit about what your reasoning was and how you'd like to see those funds used.

BUFFETT: Well, I wouldn't have given it to them unless I was 100% in sync with their objective, which is do the most good for the most people, wherever they may be, male or female, whatever their color, whatever their religion or so on. They believe every human life is equal to every other one. I am very good at making money. If you read what Adam Smith wrote in 1776 about specialization of labor, you know, he said if you need to deliver a baby, don't try to learn to do it yourself. Get an obstetrician. So Bill and Melinda will be better and my children who will also have foundations will be better at doing it than I would be. And that's fine. I'll work at what I'm good at and I'll let them do it. And they are doing it 100% in accord with my wishes.


BECKY: Another question right here.

QUESTION: Mr. Buffett and Mr. Gates, welcome to Columbia Business School. My name is Chris. I'm from Pennsylvania and I'm a first-year MBA student. My question is, who have been some of your most important mentors? And what lessons have you learned from them?

BECKY: Bill.

GATES: Well, I benefited from my dad and mom who set a great example. My dad was a lawyer and shared what he was doing at work. I have had some business partners that we have learned together, Steve Balmer in particular. And then I pick Warren as somebody I have learned an immense amount from, just hearing his stories of how he dealt with tough situations, how he thought long-term, how he models the world. If you get a chance to spend time with people like that, it's fantastic.

BECKY: All right. We will be right back. Stay right here.


BECKY: All right. Ready? Welcome back, everybody. This is real crunch time. Let's get right to it. You got it question?

QUESTION: Yeah. Welcome. My name is Steven Matthews. I am in the executive Business School here. Thanks for coming here. My question is on Apple . Mr. Gates, if you could just comment and tell us what your thoughts are on the job Steve Jobs has done as the CEO of Apple. [LAUGHTER]

GATES: Well, he's done a fantastic job. And Apple is in a bit of a different business where they make hardware and software together. But when Steve was coming back to Apple, which was actually through an acquisition of NeXT that he ran, Apple was in very tough shape. In fact, most likely, it wasn't going to survive. And he brought in a team. He brought in inspiration about great products and design that's made Apple back into being an incredible force in doing good things. And it's, you know, great to have competitors like that. We write software for Apple, Microsoft does. They compete with Apple. But he, of all the leaders in the industry that I have worked with, he showed more inspiration and he saved the company.

BECKY: OK. Tag, you're it.

QUESTION: Thank you. My name is Michael. I'm a first year MBA student. The question is for Mr. Gates. I was wondering if you think Google at all resembles Microsoft during Microsoft's early years.

GATES: Well, they have some of the same problems we had. [LAUGHTER] [APPLAUSE] It's another fine competitor. They are hiring a lot of smart people. They have gotten into the lead position in search, which is incredibly profitable to be number one in that. They may get a little competition as time goes forward. But they are a great example of what can happen, you know, two young guys who got together, pursued an idea and created a success that's absolutely gigantic. And we all, you know, hopefully use search engines, maybe a variety. [LAUGHTER] And we benefit from that.


BECKY: Right here.

QUESTION: Hi, I'm Josh Austin. I'm a second-year MBA student. My question is for you, Mr. Buffett. Value investors, such as yourself, believe that fundamental analysis, deep fundamental analysis is critical to intelligent investing. However, you have said several times in the past that you have made very rapid capital allocation decisions, sometimes in less than five minutes. I was wondering exactly which data gave you confidence in your decision.

BUFFETT: Well, that's 50 years of preparation and five (minutes) of decision making. [APPLAUSE]

BECKY: Can you just look at the spreadsheet? Can you look at an annual report and make a decision like that?

BUFFETT: Yeah. Sometimes I can. Just take Coca-Cola, for example. I sampled the product for 60 years and then I saw a couple of key ingredients, you know, that essentially tipped the scale in terms of buying it back in 1988. But the good big decisions, they don't take any time at all. If they take time, you're in trouble.

BECKY: All right. We will have more with Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, when we come right back.


BECKY: All right. Welcome back, everybody. Gentlemen, last question today. If America was a stock, would you buy it? Bill.

GATES: You bet.

BECKY: Warren.

BUFFETT: On margin. [LAUGHTER]

BECKY: Gentlemen, we want to thank you very much for your time. You've been wonderful. Bill, Warren, we really appreciate it. Let's give them a big round of applause, guys. [APPLAUSE] And we want to thank all of you, too. Columbia University, the Business School, Dean Hubbard, thank you, guys. We really appreciate it. It's been fantastic. That does it for us today. I'm Becky Quick, and if you want to watch this, you can go to CNBC.com and we will see you back here very soon.




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