2008-May-12: Interview with Lee Kwan Yew

Interview with Lee Kwan Yew, Minister Mentor, Government of Singapore

Date: 12 May 2008 - 20:27

By Central News Agency of Taiwan

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Lee Kwang Yew the elder statesman of Asia discusses issues ranging from Taiwan-China relations rendering support to China's views on Tibet&Taiwan. He reiterates his view of importance of economic growth and stable society over political aspirations

We have just concluded our presidential election and in the United States, they will have their elections later in the year. In Beijing, final preparations are being made for the summer Olympics. Taking all these factors into consideration, what do you think are the new opportunities and challenges being presented in our region, particularly in the situation across the Taiwan Strait?

Opportunities for co-operation in an improved Cross-Straits relations are in economics, culture, sports, science and technology. Taiwan had imposed economic isolation on itself its no policy to the Three Links. Taiwan made Cross-Straits relations hostile when ex-President Li Teng-hui talked about 2 countries and he becoming a Moses to lead Taiwanese to a promise land back in the 1990s. President Chen Shui-bian made relations worse when he goes back on his words like “Four No’s Plus One (四不一没有)”.

After the election of the KMT, Presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou and Vice-President Vincent Siew, I sense a certain relaxation of tension. Both sides want to settle the Three Links to increase trade, investments, and tourism. Both can increase cultural exchanges, sports, and other social activities.

Do you think that Beijing might be more forth-coming in trying to work with Taiwan’s next president than with President Chen Shui-bian? What’s the next step that both sides should take?

Do you think that the 1992 consensus with different interpretations of the one-China concept should be a basis for the PRC and Taiwan to move forward?

I think Beijing will be forthcoming on the Three Links and tourism and businessmen to and fro. In Boao, President Hu Jin-tao used “four continuations” – agreeing to continue to promote cross strait economic, cultural and other cooperation, continue promoting direct flights and PRC tourism to Taiwan, continue caring for and safeguarding the appropriate rights of the Taiwanese people, and continue to encourage the resumption of cross strait negotiations, in response to Vice-President Vincent Siew’s 16 characters proposals for more liberal economic ties, 正视现实, 开创未来,搁置争议,追求双赢,setting out Beijing’s basic principles. President Hu repeated to former KMT Chairman a similar 16 character policy, 建立互信,搁置争议,求同存异,共创双赢. The next step is to commence official talks between the SEF (Straits Exchange Foundation) and ARATS (Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits).

On the possibility of the PRC withdrawing at least some of the missiles aimed at Taiwan…

I do not think it is a critical issue. They can be withdrawn; they can be replaced in a few days or weeks.

The question to ask is under what circumstances will they fire them. I do not see the Chinese, for no rhyme or reason, destroy Taiwan when they intend to have Taiwan grow, and to benefit from that growth.

They have many differences with the Japanese. Yet Hu Jintao is in Tokyo today. Why? Because he wants economic co-operation, trade, markets, investments, technology, transfer of skills and knowledge. China wants to grow. By growing for the next 20, 30, 40 years, he will solve his internal problems and external problems become manageable. If China does not grow fast enough to generate jobs for their people, he’s in trouble immediately at home and his international troubles be compounded.

Taiwan’s politics in the last few years, from the time of President Lee Teng-hui was about Taiwan’s international status, national identity of its people and emphasising separateness from the mainland. I’m not saying these are not important issues. But by concentrating on these issues you have taken your eyes off your crucial need, that is growth and development of the economy. You cannot change China, it will change by itself at its own pace and for its own reasons. China is content to leave you alone for the time being provided you don’t make a dash for independence. They are concentrating on growth, catching up in GDP, technology, knowledge, skills and increasing their capabilities, just grow.

Would it be sufficient then for President Ma to just shelve the issue of unification versus independence?


If I were him, I would shelve it for the next four years. Don’t talk about it. You have read President Hu Jintao’s answer to Vice President elect Vincent Siew’s sixteen characters and he more or less repeated it in another 16 characters to former KMT chairman Len Chan. What’s their meaning? Let’s put aside our differences, and grow.. In four years, you will bring about a big change in Taiwan.


What about the reaffirmation of the goal of unification?

I don’t see the KMT moving in that direction, do you?

And that would be good enough for Beijing to move on to the economics?

For the next four years. Maybe even for the next eight years, but not forever.

Do you see any signs that Beijing might be willing to put something on the table that is more appealing to the people of Taiwan than “one country, two systems”?


I see no signs that either side is eager to discuss the “one country two systems”. Both sides want to concentrate on economic co-operation. “One country two systems” is political and can be set aside for the next four years. President Ma wants to concentrate on Taiwan’s economy to catch up with the other NIEs, South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore.

I believe Taiwan will not have much more international space in the next four years. Beijing will have to take into account that a successor DPP President may exploit this increased space.

Before former President Li Teng-hui shifted Taiwan’s position from eventual reunification to the “two countries theory”, Beijing was quite relaxed. They even agreed to Taiwan joining Apec as an economic unit, together with Hong Kong. Beijing became wary and suspicious after former President Li spoke to the Japanese writer about leading Taiwan to the “promise land” and he as “Moses”.

President-elect Ma’s position is “no independence, no reunification, no use of force”. This has eased and improved the situation. But President-elect Ma has not re-affirmed the original position of the KMT of eventual reunification.

Meanwhile President Chen Shui-bian has dismantled re-unification agencies like the Straits Exchange Foundation and the Mainland Affairs Council. Until there is a clear-cut return by both major parties to the original ROC position of eventual reunification, Beijing will be wary of conceding more international space.

Taiwan now is less isolated because President-elect Ma Ying-jeou is not seen as a trouble-maker.

Political reforms on the Mainland are not because China wants to be more homogenous with Taiwan. Reforms in China are to improve the governance of its new market economy that had resulted in a more diversified society. Changes in governance are needed to ensure social stability and economic growth.

There has been a growing awareness of a separate Taiwan identity on the part of the people of Taiwan. Do you think that it would be better to accommodate than to try to suppress it? What if the people of Taiwan no longer want to be unified with the mainland under the concept of one China?


People of Taiwan will decide whether they want to emphasize their separateness from the Mainland by redefining Taiwan’s identity. The DPP has changed the teaching of history of Taiwan. Taiwan has also altered the accent of standard Mandarin by giving it a Minnan accent

Singapore and Malaysia use the Mainland’s jianti script (simplified script). That does not make us a part of China. The rest of the world find it easier to understand us because the world is learning Chinese language used by 1,300 million people. They set the market standard. Staying with “Guoyu” does not make Taiwan a part of China.

The wishes of the people of Taiwan will not be decisive on the issue of reunification. The decisive factors are the economic and military strength and determination of China and America. Are Americans prepared to back Taiwan if it goes for independence? The US government has made it clear that they will only support the status quo of the ROC - no independence and no reunification by force.

Human rights activist, pro-democracy, NGOs, and the western media spread the belief that in democracies people can decide their own future. This is not the case. A recent example: Albanians in Kosovo do not want to be ruled by Serbia. Kosovo has become separate from Serbia because the Americans bombed Serbia into withdrawing their forces from Kosovo. At present EU troops are in Kosovo to prevent the Serbs from retaking Kosovo. Kosovo’s independence has been recognised by America and several EU countries, but not by all EU countries. Russia and China, both permanent members of the UN Security Council, oppose independence. Most countries in the world including Singapore, have not recognised the independence of Kosovo. If the EU troops leave, Serbia will re-absorb Kosovo.

Georgia, a former Soviet Republic has problems with Russia. The Russians have increased their military forces in Abkhazia, a minority area on the northern border of Georgia abutting Russia. Georgia wants to join NATO. President Bush supports Georgia, and also Ukraine, to be members of NATO. France and Germany, two important members of the NATO, have opposed this. They do not want to have to go to war with Russia over Georgia or Ukraine, both former “republics” in the Soviet Union.

Based on your discussions with the Chinese leaders, do you think the use of military force is an option for the Beijing leadership eventually? In other words, do you think China could use military force against Taiwan simply because they want to solve the issue once and for all? Should Taiwan purchase more advanced military weapons to prevent a war?


China’s economy has been growing at 9% to 12% yearly. It will grow at least 8% yearly for the next 10 - 20 years. In another 20 or 30 years, China’s military capabilities can achieve an asymmetrical power capability that will make it costly for America to intervene in any cross straits conflict. China is building up its forces primarily to deter any intervention by America or Japan, not to attack Taiwan. China does not want to attack and inflict damage on Taiwan. A thriving Taiwan is good for the Mainland. Through peaceful development of China’s economy, and improvements in both civilian and military technology, China can deter any American aircraft carrier group from sailing near Taiwan in a crisis.

Of course, if Taiwan’s pro-independence leaders make a dash for it, China will attack.


And what about the desire not just on the part of the Taiwan government but also the people to have more international space?


You think they’re going to give you more international space when they are not sure which way you’re going? They gave you that international space in APEC. Like Hong Kong, you were admitted as an economic entity, not for the political and security matters, just for the economy. Then when Lee Teng-hui moved Taiwan’s position and they changed their attitude. They want to make sure Taiwan does not go for independence.

And you don’t think a Ma administration will make any difference.

I have not discussed this with Beijing’s leaders…But if the intention is eventually to go for independence, why should they allow you the international space? If both parties in Taiwan are agreed on eventual reunification, that would be different.

President-elect Ma is going to be inaugurated in two weeks, I’m wondering whether through your past visits to Taiwan you had any contacts with him…

I knew him when he was English secretary of President Chiang Ching-kuo. I had written the president Chiang in English. Ma would translate it for the president and he would draft the reply in Chinese for Chiang’s approval. So he knows all my exchanges with President Chiang. He has read every letter between the two of us.


What kind of president do you think he will make?

We have to wait and see how he responds to crisis, that’s when a leader is tested. I have not lived under his mayorship of Taipei so I do not know. He has said as president he wants to represent all the people of Taiwan. We must assume he will want to win over the light Greens who did not vote for him.

The other important duty of the presidency is how to get the country out of its present stagnation?

I believe he’s got a good vice president who can manage the economy and get the Taiwan economy to move ahead. I hope he will give Vincent Siew full scope to push ahead.

From the appointments of the experienced people into key economic and finance portfolios they will get going without losing time learning on the job.



On the question of having an FTA between Taiwan and Singapore…

We cannot go faster than your relations with the mainland. That’s the position. Once you improve your relations with the mainland, that’s no problem.

You mentioned that you believe it will be conflict-free between big powers because it is too costly but between big powers against small powers—the squeezing of small powers will go on. Will the economical and political competition between China and US squeeze Taiwan out?

Economic and political competition between China and US will go on regardless of Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Singapore or other countries in Southeast Asia. Singapore is not being squeezed out, because we keep good relations with both America and China. There is no reason for Taiwan to be squeezed out if Taiwan maintains steady relations with the Mainland and avoid confrontation.


Taiwan has been on the sidelines while the ASEAN expands and its members work toward closer integration. Do you see a way for Taiwan to participate in, and contribute to, that process?

The Asean group/units stopped at borders of North Vietnam. Hong Kong was never invited to join Asean. What Taiwan needs is good economic relations with the Asean countries. You can use your status in WTO as a territory and negotiate trade and investments agreements with as many of the Asean countries as possible.

Asean works by consensus, ie all Asean members must agree to any Asean-Taiwan agreement. This is unlikely. So an Asean-Taiwan agreement is not easy. There are several members of Asean who have strong ties with China. They will not want to displease China. Taiwan is not likely to be added into the Asean dialogues. Such dialogues discuss political and security matters besides economic matters. There will not be a consensus among the 10 Asean members to have an Asean-Taiwan dialogue.


On our bilateral relations, what are the prospects for increased cooperation? In what areas in particular should both sides try to have closer cooperation between Singapore and Taiwan?

So long as you maintain stable and friendly relations with China, increasing co-operation in trade, investments, and tourism, Singapore and Taiwan can also increase co-operation in trade and investments and tourism. Do not bring any politics into the Taiwan-Singapore relationship. Singapore has always stood by its One-China policy, from the 1970s when the ROC had Chiang Ching-kuo as President.


As one of the international financial centres, Singapore’s first casino will be open for business by 2009. What will the government do to attract tourists while preventing Singapore from becoming a place for money laundering? What are your views on adding this new sector to Singapore’s economy?



We have clear procedures and supervision over banks in Singapore for money laundering. We are a member of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an inter-governmental body that focuses on combating money laundering and terrorist financing. We have also set up the Casino Regulatory Authority headed by a senior Police officer. We have high quality casino investors in two integrated resorts, each over US$4 billion because they are confident there will be no mafia, no prostitution rings, no money laundering.

My views on casinos have had to change. I was opposed to casinos from the 1950s to the 1990s. The world has changed. There are now casinos in every major European city, even in Swiss cities. America has casinos. Casino cruise ship call regularly on Singapore. Singaporeans also fly to Macau, Las Vegas, Perth, Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane for casinos. So we decided on two casinos, one ready by 2009 and the other by 2010.

Singapore has done very well in creating an environment conducive to international economic activities. If there is one lesson that Taiwan should learn from your country, what would it be? An incorrupt government or a meritocratic government will be more successful in terms of efficiency?

In Singapore, the key issues with political debates and contests between the PAP and the Opposition are about promoting and generating economic growth for jobs, housing and health for the people. In the past 8 years, Taiwan’s politics especially in the last 8 years have been about independence and separateness from the Mainland by Taiwanisation or “Ben Tu Hua”. Those debates have dampened investments and economic activity and increased unemployment. Taiwan blocked trade and investments with China. Taiwan lost sympathy and support internationally when President Chen Shui-bian was seen as a trouble-maker even by the American President. With new President-elect Ma Ying-jeou, I hope Taiwan’s intra party politics will be about promoting trade, investments and economic opportunities, not more sterile arguments over independence, or separateness from the Mainland, and redefining Taiwan’s history, identity and language.

Are you planning on attending the 2008 summer Olympics? Do you think that the Beijing leadership might be putting too much hope on the Games?


I will be attending the opening ceremony of the summer Olympics on the 8 August 2008. The Chinese leaders have made great efforts to make it a success. People of China are angry at these protests that they view as intended to sour the Beijing’s Olympics. The Chinese are confident that after the games and protests have ended, China will continue to grow stronger year by year. And all major countries want to participate in this growing economy.

When Lee Hsien Loong was Deputy Prime Minister, he visited Taiwan. The Taiwanese media made big play of his visit. Beijing objected and suspended all government to government negotiations with us. Our Free Trade Agreement with Beijing has still not being signed after four years. New Zealand that started this negotiations after Singapore, have concluded the Free Trade Agreement. Beijing uses its economic and political clout to counter acts it sees as against its interests. Boycotting the Beijing Olympics will not be cost-free unlike boycotting the Moscow Olympics. The Soviet economy was of no interest to the rest of the world.

On the issue of Tibet, do you see any chance of the Beijing leadership adopting a truly conciliatory attitude? If so, what might that be?


Beijing has shown a conciliatory attitude by resuming talks with the personal representatives of the Dalai Lama. But President Hu Jin-tao has made it clear that the Tibet issue is not an ethnic, religious or human rights issue. It was an issue of having the country split or united, a question of the sovereignty of China. The bottom line is Tibet is a part of China.


Do you have any plans to visit Taiwan in the near future?

If cross-straits relations become friendly and cooperative again, and if there is no media publicity on my visits as in 1970s, ‘80s and early ‘90s when I frequently visited Taiwan, I will be able to visit Taiwan. But when such visits are used by Taiwan’s media to provoke Beijing, they set back Taiwan-Singapore interactions. It has made Singapore repeatedly re-affirm its one-China policy. If you return to the earlier practice of no publicity, our interaction will be quiet but more productive.

This article has been brought to you in conjunction with the Central News Agency of Taiwan



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